Tag: Palm Springs California

A Definite Maybe

rtwrfdomainsSince last Wednesday I’ve been talking about the chance of the Palm Springs area getting a few sprinkles this Thursday. In most places caring about an iffy forecast for a tiny event so far in advance would be a non-starter. Not so in the desert where long time residents look forward to our few cloudy days!

So, here we are Monday. This is the sixth day since rain was first mentioned. I’m barely closer to knowing than I was then!

First, an admission. Without supercomputers no one could attempt a seven or eight day forecast. The atmosphere’s just too complex. But computer’s have shortcomings. I use the GFS model this far out.

The entire globe is covered by the GFS at a base horizontal resolution of 18 miles (28 kilometers) between grid points, which is used by the operational forecasters who predict weather out to 16 days in the future. Horizontal resolution drops to 44 miles (70 kilometers) between grid point for forecasts between one week and two weeks.

One point every 18 miles! At that resolution mountains disappear. Everything becomes a coarse approximation.

Later today Thursday will be seen in the much higher resolution CANSAC (California and Nevada Smoke and Air Committee) WRF model. CANSAC’s WRF only sees out 72 hours, but with 2km (1.2 mile) resolution.

For the geekiest reading, here’s the hardware CANSAC uses to run the WRF.

The CANSAC WRF real-time forecast system is operated on an SGI® ICE 8200 high-performance computer. Specifications are:

256 cores (Intel Xeon X5570)
384 GB RAM memory
20 TB disk space.

In the interim lots of human expertise is needed. The mountains west of the Coachella Valley are critically important. The models might not resolve them well, but I have to. They are a major reason we see less than six inches of rain in an average year (just over two inches since this year’s ‘wet’ season began in October).

I said Wednesday the coast was much more likely to see rain than Palm Springs. That still holds true.

If we get anything it will be tiny. In the desert that’s enough to perk ears.

Rain’s A Big Deal Here

Meteogram Generator

We do a seven day forecast at KMIR. Yesterday I mentioned Day Eight. It got a shout out (as Day Seven) again tonight. That’s because there’s rain forecast next Thursday.

The actual value to rain in the Coachella Valley (Palm Springs area) is debatable. We average less than six inches per year. The majority of our water comes from an underground aquifer. It would be long gone if not supplemented by water piped in from Parker Dam on the Colorado River. Rainfall seeping down is a small piece of our specific puzzle.

Nature doesn’t provide nearly enough to support our population and the hundreds of thousands of tourists who arrive every week during the season.

Whether rainwater helps or not, people in the valley value it. Mentioning rain here is like mentioning snow in New England. It grabs your attention.

If you break down next Thursday’s rain forecast over Palm Springs, it comes to .06″. Tiny. Hardly noticeable.

A forecast for that small amount of liquid a week away is chancy at best, especially when you throw in:

EARLY NEXT WEEK A GULF OF ALASKA LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SEND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DOWN THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS UNUSUAL APRIL PATTERN WOULD BRING A DECENT CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION IF WERE TO UNFOLD. BUT THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN FORECAST SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER AND HAS EITHER 1) SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENED OVER TIME OR 2) FAILED TO MATERIALIZE AT ALL. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER STAGES OF NEXT WEEK. – Area Forecast Discussion NWS San Diego

Wish us luck. It will get my attention on every newscast.

Who Said I’d Be Bored?

Some computer models show around an inch of rain in Palm Springs by Monday morning. That’s a lot in a place that floods easily. I spent time tonight explaining ‘washes’ to the tourists and snowbirds watching.

qpf

I’m forecasting the weather for the Coachella Valley at KMIR. The physics of weather are the same, but there are different tools to use.

Satellite imagery is a lot more important here. Anything coming from the Pacific is out of radar range nearly all the way to the coast.

I’ve been looking at a plume of moisture from north of Hawaii curving up the Pacific then back down the West Coast. It’s the big weekend weather maker for SoCal. The only way to see it is from the bird.

Saturday, while it’s raining in LA and San Diego, there will be partly cloudy skies over Palm Springs with a few sprinkles. We are protected by steep mountains, some over 11,000 feet tall.

On Sunday the moisture heads in from the south. No protection there! That’s when we get the bulk of our rain.

Some computer models show around an inch of rain in Palm Springs by Monday morning. That’s a lot in a place that floods easily. I spent time tonight explaining ‘washes’ to the tourists and snowbirds watching.

On top of the rain we’ve got wind for Saturday and as much as a foot and a half of snow in some mountain locations.

Who said I’d be bored forecasting here?

Rain Shade Is Major

Locales have individual climatic quirks like baseball parks have ground rules. The Coachella Valley, where the vast majority of our viewers live, is a protected valley. We are flanked by mountains. We get “rain shade.” Real term. I didn’t make it up.

cansac.dri.edu flashloop.php model wrf product 2015022200 3hrPRECIP_ domain _D3

My job is forecasting the weather at KMIR. Our market, Palm Springs, covers a small geographic area. It’s not even a whole county!

People think it’s boring to forecast in the desert. Nah. Sometimes it’s repetitive. I can deal with that. There’s always something interesting going on.

Locales have individual climatic quirks like baseball parks have ground rules. The Coachella Valley, where the vast majority of our viewers live, is a protected valley. We are flanked by mountains. We get “rain shade.” Real term. I didn’t make it up.

The San Bernardino Mountains are north, San Jacinto and Santa Ana Mountains west and the Little San Bernardino Mountains are off to the east. We’re wedged in tight.

A small storm hitting SoCal this weekend will drop nearly all its rain before it gets to Palm Springs! The largest rainfall will be on the eastern slopes of the Santa Ana’s. The east face of the San Jacinto range should drain most of what’s left. The tallest mountaintops will get snow.

The notoriously awful QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) from the GFS model say .06″ Sunday and another .04″ Monday at Palm Springs Airport (PSP). John Wayne Airport (SNA), west of Palm Springs and on the coastal side of the mountains, is forecast for .33″, over three times as much.

There’s are reasons Palm Springs gets less than six inches of rain in an average year. Rain shade is major.

The Longer Way To Work

I was looking at traffic, but not paying a lot of attention to navigating. Then I passed the sign that said I was entering San Diego County. That’s not right.

Google Location history

vista-point

vista-point-2

My route to work is simple. Well, usually it’s simple. Not today.

I was on the phone with my friend Barry Schulman, chatting and enjoying the ride. I was looking at traffic, but not paying a lot of attention to navigating. Then I passed the sign that said I was entering San Diego County. That’s not right.

Somehow I’d gotten off CA91 and onto I-15. I was making good time, just not in the right direction.

DCIM101MEDIAThe GPS, not turned on until now, pointed the way through desert and chaparral via CA371 and CA74 (aka the “Pines to Palms Highway”). These were two lane roads through the wilderness. I passed three Indian Reservations, a handful of ranches and one outcropping with horse sculptures.

_MG_9693My 1:40 trip took an extra hour!

There is good news. Within 10 miles of Palm Desert is Vista Point. You’re high above the Coachella Valley with a spectacular view of the Palm Springs region and the hairpin of a road I was on.

Back At Work

IMAG2066

I’m back in Palm Springs. Gino and Janet at 5 and 6. Gino solo at 9 and 11. Excellent. Good company.

I’m here while Helaine wrangles the electrician tomorrow. Sockets are being added and removed. Studio lights and a large digital clock are being hung.

My phone is by the bed.

IMAG2065The boss wanted my hair shorter. Fine. Joseph does a lot of TV people in LA and spends weekends in Palm Springs. Looks good… and short.

I’m in a nice hotel near the Indian Wells “Tennis Garden.” My room for the week is really a small one bedroom apartment. They call it a suite. Not home. It makes my stay much easier.

Quiet right now. Peacefully so. TV off. We’ll see how long I can take the lack of stimulation.

My place has a giant balcony with a mediocre view of an interior courtyard. It’s better than that sentence makes it sound. 77 tomorrow! I’ll open the door and let the fresh air in.

I assume a few of you are Coachella Valley residents who Googled my name, found my site and started reading.

Hi!

You live in a wonderful area. It’s beautiful here. Even the summer.

I’m Geoff. This is my blog, a fairly detailed retelling of my life since July 4, 2003. There’s a new entry nearly every day.

I’m on Facebook and Twitter and respond to comments. I like forecasting the weather and talking about it on TV.

All weather forecasters are reasonably accurate nowadays. I make no claim to have the highest accuracy. My strength is explaining the weather in a way that leaves you understanding what’s to come while enjoying yourself.

I am loose on-the-air and often ‘break the fourth wall.’ Call me enthusiastic.

Find me weeknights at 5,6,9 and 11 on KMIR and KPSE. My wife and daughter will appreciate it.

Just In Case You Want To Watch

kmir news logoMy first day on KMIR was Thursday. I purposely kept the streaming link to myself. Who knew how the first shows would go? Now that I’ve eased in, feel free to peep.

My newscasts are Monday-Friday 5,6, 9 and 11p pst. That corresponds to 8,9, midnight and 2a est. All our newscasts can be found here.

If you have friends or relatives near Palm Springs, tell them to watch. I’m paid by the viewer!