Rain’s A Big Deal Here

Meteogram Generator

We do a seven day forecast at KMIR. Yesterday I mentioned Day Eight. It got a shout out (as Day Seven) again tonight. That’s because there’s rain forecast next Thursday.

The actual value to rain in the Coachella Valley (Palm Springs area) is debatable. We average less than six inches per year. The majority of our water comes from an underground aquifer. It would be long gone if not supplemented by water piped in from Parker Dam on the Colorado River. Rainfall seeping down is a small piece of our specific puzzle.

Nature doesn’t provide nearly enough to support our population and the hundreds of thousands of tourists who arrive every week during the season.

Whether rainwater helps or not, people in the valley value it. Mentioning rain here is like mentioning snow in New England. It grabs your attention.

If you break down next Thursday’s rain forecast over Palm Springs, it comes to .06″. Tiny. Hardly noticeable.

A forecast for that small amount of liquid a week away is chancy at best, especially when you throw in:

EARLY NEXT WEEK A GULF OF ALASKA LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SEND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DOWN THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS UNUSUAL APRIL PATTERN WOULD BRING A DECENT CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION IF WERE TO UNFOLD. BUT THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN FORECAST SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER AND HAS EITHER 1) SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENED OVER TIME OR 2) FAILED TO MATERIALIZE AT ALL. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER STAGES OF NEXT WEEK. – Area Forecast Discussion NWS San Diego

Wish us luck. It will get my attention on every newscast.

Who Said I’d Be Bored?

Some computer models show around an inch of rain in Palm Springs by Monday morning. That’s a lot in a place that floods easily. I spent time tonight explaining ‘washes’ to the tourists and snowbirds watching.

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I’m forecasting the weather for the Coachella Valley at KMIR. The physics of weather are the same, but there are different tools to use.

Satellite imagery is a lot more important here. Anything coming from the Pacific is out of radar range nearly all the way to the coast.

I’ve been looking at a plume of moisture from north of Hawaii curving up the Pacific then back down the West Coast. It’s the big weekend weather maker for SoCal. The only way to see it is from the bird.

Saturday, while it’s raining in LA and San Diego, there will be partly cloudy skies over Palm Springs with a few sprinkles. We are protected by steep mountains, some over 11,000 feet tall.

On Sunday the moisture heads in from the south. No protection there! That’s when we get the bulk of our rain.

Some computer models show around an inch of rain in Palm Springs by Monday morning. That’s a lot in a place that floods easily. I spent time tonight explaining ‘washes’ to the tourists and snowbirds watching.

On top of the rain we’ve got wind for Saturday and as much as a foot and a half of snow in some mountain locations.

Who said I’d be bored forecasting here?

Trip To Riverside

We have been transformed. More and more we are losing our individual identity. It’s the price we pay for our more efficient economy. Local businesses struggle to compete.

RiversidehomesI drove to Riverside this evening to drop off a piece of equipment. Riverside is an interesting city. It’s totally a product of the automotive era. Without cars and freeways (and air conditioning) Riverside would still be dusty scrubland. It’s a valley made for smog!

In 1960 84,000 people lived in Riverside. It’s over 310,000 now. The area is dominated by Hispanic families, many of whom moved here to own a first home.

Riverside is built out, not up. It sprawls out as the capitol of the “Inland Empire.”

I’m sure there’s some special Riverside charm, but it is hidden under a deluge of national chains. There’s nothing in Riverside you can’t also find in Des Moines or Salt Lake City or Albany.

We have been transformed. More and more we are losing our individual identity. It’s the price we pay for our more efficient economy. Local businesses struggle to compete.

I parked between Trader Joe’s and Regal Cinema with a Bank America and Rite Aid across the driveway. Build more homes, get more Michaels or Ikea.

I didn’t stay long.

Rain Shade Is Major

Locales have individual climatic quirks like baseball parks have ground rules. The Coachella Valley, where the vast majority of our viewers live, is a protected valley. We are flanked by mountains. We get “rain shade.” Real term. I didn’t make it up.

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My job is forecasting the weather at KMIR. Our market, Palm Springs, covers a small geographic area. It’s not even a whole county!

People think it’s boring to forecast in the desert. Nah. Sometimes it’s repetitive. I can deal with that. There’s always something interesting going on.

Locales have individual climatic quirks like baseball parks have ground rules. The Coachella Valley, where the vast majority of our viewers live, is a protected valley. We are flanked by mountains. We get “rain shade.” Real term. I didn’t make it up.

The San Bernardino Mountains are north, San Jacinto and Santa Ana Mountains west and the Little San Bernardino Mountains are off to the east. We’re wedged in tight.

A small storm hitting SoCal this weekend will drop nearly all its rain before it gets to Palm Springs! The largest rainfall will be on the eastern slopes of the Santa Ana’s. The east face of the San Jacinto range should drain most of what’s left. The tallest mountaintops will get snow.

The notoriously awful QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) from the GFS model say .06″ Sunday and another .04″ Monday at Palm Springs Airport (PSP). John Wayne Airport (SNA), west of Palm Springs and on the coastal side of the mountains, is forecast for .33″, over three times as much.

There’s are reasons Palm Springs gets less than six inches of rain in an average year. Rain shade is major.

The Longer Way To Work

I was looking at traffic, but not paying a lot of attention to navigating. Then I passed the sign that said I was entering San Diego County. That’s not right.

Google Location history

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My route to work is simple. Well, usually it’s simple. Not today.

I was on the phone with my friend Barry Schulman, chatting and enjoying the ride. I was looking at traffic, but not paying a lot of attention to navigating. Then I passed the sign that said I was entering San Diego County. That’s not right.

Somehow I’d gotten off CA91 and onto I-15. I was making good time, just not in the right direction.

DCIM101MEDIAThe GPS, not turned on until now, pointed the way through desert and chaparral via CA371 and CA74 (aka the “Pines to Palms Highway”). These were two lane roads through the wilderness. I passed three Indian Reservations, a handful of ranches and one outcropping with horse sculptures.

_MG_9693My 1:40 trip took an extra hour!

There is good news. Within 10 miles of Palm Desert is Vista Point. You’re high above the Coachella Valley with a spectacular view of the Palm Springs region and the hairpin of a road I was on.

Back At Work

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I’m back in Palm Springs. Gino and Janet at 5 and 6. Gino solo at 9 and 11. Excellent. Good company.

I’m here while Helaine wrangles the electrician tomorrow. Sockets are being added and removed. Studio lights and a large digital clock are being hung.

My phone is by the bed.

IMAG2065The boss wanted my hair shorter. Fine. Joseph does a lot of TV people in LA and spends weekends in Palm Springs. Looks good… and short.

I’m in a nice hotel near the Indian Wells “Tennis Garden.” My room for the week is really a small one bedroom apartment. They call it a suite. Not home. It makes my stay much easier.

Quiet right now. Peacefully so. TV off. We’ll see how long I can take the lack of stimulation.

My place has a giant balcony with a mediocre view of an interior courtyard. It’s better than that sentence makes it sound. 77 tomorrow! I’ll open the door and let the fresh air in.

I assume a few of you are Coachella Valley residents who Googled my name, found my site and started reading.

Hi!

You live in a wonderful area. It’s beautiful here. Even the summer.

I’m Geoff. This is my blog, a fairly detailed retelling of my life since July 4, 2003. There’s a new entry nearly every day.

I’m on Facebook and Twitter and respond to comments. I like forecasting the weather and talking about it on TV.

All weather forecasters are reasonably accurate nowadays. I make no claim to have the highest accuracy. My strength is explaining the weather in a way that leaves you understanding what’s to come while enjoying yourself.

I am loose on-the-air and often ‘break the fourth wall.’ Call me enthusiastic.

Find me weeknights at 5,6,9 and 11 on KMIR and KPSE. My wife and daughter will appreciate it.

It’s Winter In SoCal

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The NWS chat channel has been up in another browser window most of the past two days. It’s a meeting place for media, emergency managers and NWS forecasters. All the chatter has been winter related.

Finally after a year and a half, SoCal winter has found the Foxes.

The main player is a storm from the north which managed to stay inland and stay cold. It doesn’t happen often.

Indio, at the far end of the Coachella Valley, only got to 53 today. Every other December 31 on record was warmer by at least two degrees and the record goes back to 1894!

We’re about as far south as Charleston, SC. Snow fell at an altitude of 1350 feet above sea level.

Hundreds of cars were stranded in dozens of spots. Parts of I-10 and I-15 were snowcovered. Driving in snow is much different here where slopes are steep and long. Chains are required.

My cousin, Melissa told Helaine this was the coldest she could remember. The wind was probably her deciding factor. We had gusts in the mid 30s overnight. Trash cans were flying. Some mountaintops and passes went over 60 mph.

The Sun was out this morning. I looked toward Santiago Peak, around dozen miles from here, and saw white!

“Be right back,” I told Helaine, then hopped in the car to take the two shots above.

By early next week we’ll be back in the mid 70s. It’s winter in SoCal.

Rain Is Different Here

In the burn areas, places that had fires in the last year or two, it will take much less for canyon walls to fall. The scrubby growth that held everything together was burned away.

People in scenic canyon homes are usually OK, not always. They always say they’ll rebuild.

When a storm approaches the Southern California coast, as is the case tonight, it’s a big deal!

Thank you weather.cod.edu

Rain leads the news in SoCal just like snow does in the Northeast.

Every area has some sort of natural Achilles heel. Ours is rain. Can’t live with it. Can’t live without it.

This is a semi-desert climate. We get our paltry rain in a very few large doses. The water is good for reducing fire danger and irrigation, but most of SoCal’s water comes from the Sierras, hundreds of miles away. Rain at my house isn’t quite as important as it seems.

The latest computer guidance says we can take around an inch of rain in an hour, up to three inches in six hours before we flood. Close call.

In the burn areas, places that had fires in the last year or two, it will take much less for canyon walls to fall. The scrubby growth that held everything together has burned away.

People in beautiful homes with spectacular views are usually OK, not always. Sometimes their houses fall. Other times something falls on their houses. They always say they’ll rebuild.

Irvine has a few large drainage channels carrying runoff to the sea. Always empty. That will change.

No snow for Santiago Peak–visible from the bedroom window. A quick estimate keeps the rain/snow line above 10,000 feet–higher than these mountains.

NERD ALERT — Feel free to skip the next paragraph.

In Connecticut I’d look for the 850mb 0C isotherm as a good rain/snow indicator. During this storm it will be close to 10C over me. These storms tend to be convective–so cellular. Rain amounts will vary greatly city-to-city.

Hopefully the storm’s mightest punch will be in the Sierras. If you start hearing of little mountain towns with a new feet of snow you’ll know we hit the jackpot!

Oh–people here can’t drive in rain. I’ll leave it there.

Shooting At Seal Beach

As mentioned yesterday, Saturday was the annual Worldwide Photo Walk. I signed up to walk in Seal Beach. Nice people. Lackluster setting.

I was very disappointed in what I brought home. Part of it was my self imposed lens limit. Part had to do with experimenting with neutral density filters. Part had to do with Seal Beach itself and the fact SB sunset shots include the oil derricks in Long Beach.

Oh–hazy too.

However, there’s a nice payoff in spite of my ineptitude. I just got this email from Gena.

We were so fortunate to have you photograph us last night. We talked about it being a magical moment. We were talking about our hopes and dreams and you captured the moment. We would love it if you could send the photo our way. We are going to be grandparents this week and would love to share with our grandkids some day. Thank you! We are eternally grateful!

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I came across Gena and her husband after the Sun had set. They were on the wet sand above the high water mark just north of the Seal Beach Pier. They were alone on the beach… except for the guy with camera gear moving toward them.

If I wanted I could have started snapping away without asking. The law says you have no expectation of privacy in a public place. That’s not how I operate.

They were in a conversation. I stood three or four feet back and tried to get their attention. It took a few tries over the sound of the waves before I made contact.

I told them they would make a beautiful shot, from the rear with no identifiable faces. Would it be OK?

All I asked was for them to be still. I didn’t want to pop a flash. This would be a long exposure. I planted my tripod in the sand, got it as low as possible and hoped for the best.

I used my 8mm fisheye for the shot. It’s totally manual, even focusing.

Here’s the rest of my catch. You’ll notice no pictures of the sunset itself! I found the ’47 Packard while walking to my car.

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BTW — if there are seals at Seal Beach, I didn’t see them.

Stuff You See While Flying

We’re back in the OC tonight. Why is flying so exhausting? We are all bushed.

The drive back from LAX was amazing! No traffic. How very un-SoCal.

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On the way to Milwaukee our little 737-300 taxied by an Emirates Airbus 380-800. What a behemoth. My seat was lower than its wing! The A380-800 is bigger than nearly all 747s.

It’s got 399 seats in Economy, plus 75 in Business. There are also 14 “closed suites” in First Class for the 16 hour flight to the Persian Gulf.

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Winner of the “Best Paint Job” award goes to Air New Zealand for this black, silver and gray 777.

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Nearly every flight from LAX exits over the ocean. On the way out we flew over the Port of Los Angeles. It might as well be considered a wormhole in the space-time continuum connecting China and America.

Look closely at the cranes. Ships used to unload in port. Now everything stays in its container and moves on.

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We also flew by Rancho Palos Verde. When I took this shot I didn’t realize the Trump National Golf Course Los Angeles is cut off on the right. If I would have known I would have aimed farther left.

My First Vlog Post: A Trip To The Wedge

I visited The Wedge in Newport Beach this afternoon. It’s a famous surf break. Lowell, a not as famous Eastern Pacific tropical storm, has blessed The Wedge with heavy surf.

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I visited The Wedge in Newport Beach this afternoon. It’s a famous surf break. Lowell, a not as famous Eastern Pacific tropical storm, has blessed The Wedge with heavy surf. Not great surf, just big.

This is the story of my trip to photograph it and some of my shots. Please click the button and watch my short video.

Lunch In Surf City

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IMG_3701_6274“We should get together,” I said a few days ago to Larry Fitzgerald. This afternoon we were texting each other to apologize for traffic and parking related delays.

We met in Huntington Beach, aka Surf City. It’s two days before the US Open of Surfing. It’s “the season” in HB.

There was trouble at the Open last year. Violence. Rioting. Huntington Beach suffered a black eye then worked hard publicly to guarantee there would be no repeat in 2014.

IMG_3709_6282It was hot in SoCal today. Temps were near 90 just a few blocks inland. At the HB Pier the report was 78&#176 with the water at 68&#176. Lovely.

We were going to lunch at Ruby’s, a 50s themed diner at the end of Huntington Beach’s long fishing pier. We were there for the schmooze, not the kitsch.

Considering it’s Thursday the beach and pier were jammed! This is an active beach with volleyball, bicycling and surfing. An in-water lifesaving course was in progress alongside the pier.

IMG_3707_6280It was hazy today, but I made out Santa Catalina in the distance and a few offshore oil rigs which look a lot closer in my photo than they actually are.

This is oil country. I even shot pumps in action behind someone’s house!

We decided we’ll meet again. Cameras again too!

Where I Take Visiting Friends

I like Thalia Street Beach in Laguna Beach because there’s not much of it. Twisting stairs lead down from the street. The walk to the high water line can’t be more than thirty feet. I wade in to my calfs. Well, that’s my intent.

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Jon and Mary Lyn Wolfert slipped in for a few days. They’re passing through from Alaska.

Tonight they’re Dallas bound. They were on-the-ground making a fuel stop at Cavern City Air Terminal in Carlsbad, NM a few minutes ago.

Their Mooney has been dodging storms, but should be good the rest of the way. The sky will be getting brighter when they land after 5:00 AM local time.

SoCal is a pretty area. Out-of-town guests get taken to see the sights.

I like Thalia Street Beach in Laguna Beach because there’s not much of it. Twisting stairs lead down from the street. The walk to the high water line can’t be more than thirty feet. I wade in to my calfs. Well, that’s my intent.

Perfect weather. Beach jammed. Lifeguard stands, not evident a few months ago, out of storage and in the sand.

Everything about this beach says Southern California!

We left and drove past homes somehow fastened to hillsides. We were heading up. Prices were going up. Views too. Up high you see a lot.

Civilization ended at the top of the hill. We walked into the Aliso and Wood Canyons Wilderness Park. One side faces the Pacific, the other the basin that holds much of Orange County and the mountains that define its border.

More people stop by now that we’re in California. People like coming here. I understand why.

May Gray, June Gloom

Every area has its own weather quirks. They all follow the laws of physics, often through interaction too complex for humans to fully understand. Take this afternoons clouds.

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Even Californians complain about the weather. We should be ashamed of ourselves!

We have one of those potential kvetch times on-the-way. It’s the seasonal California May gray and June gloom. We’ll be waking to cloudy skies for most of the next week. They disappear by noon. This type of weather happens sporadically through summer.

In the case of coastal California, the offshore marine layer is typically propelled inland by a pressure gradient which develops as a result of intense heating inland, blanketing coastal communities in cooler air which, if saturated, also contains fog. The fog lingers until the heat of the sun becomes strong enough to evaporate it, often lasting into the afternoon during the “May gray” or “June gloom” period – Wikipedia

We’re over 10 miles inland. It’s not as bad as for coastal dwellers. Of course, they live on the California Coast. They’d better not complain. Ever. About anything.

This weather scenario wasn’t something we were looking for in Connecticut. Here, it shows up nicely on the forecast models. At the top is a BUFKIT readout from tonight’s 00Z GFS for KSNA, John Wayne Airport in nearby Santa Ana (Clicking the image will give you a much larger, much more readable look).

BUFKIT is an amazing program for visualizing weather data. It was developed at NOAA and is free, as is the data it uses.

With maps you see a large area for one specific time. With BUFKIT you see one specific place over a period of time. Go ahead–reread that.

There’s a lot going on, but what I’m looking at is at the bottom of the image. The lines are isohumes–lines of equal humidity. The cloud producing marine layer isn’t thick. On most days it only goes up 2,000 feet. It produces low, dense overcast. Sometimes there’s drizzle.

The marine layer forms in the evening and fades through the morning.

Every area has its own weather quirks. They all follow the laws of physics, often through interaction too complex for humans to fully understand. Take this afternoons clouds.

Does It Scare Me? Yes It Does!

You don’t have to look to know. The air is acrid with smoke, blown by our very strong and gusty Santa Ana winds.

I’ve been watching an Orange County Fire Authority chopper fly in, probably dropping water or retardant. He’s flying too low to see for sure.

Dangerous work. I can’t thank them enough.

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Two sounds dominate my neighborhood this afternoon: copters and firetrucks!

Fire!

Nearby!

I estimate it around a half mile from here.

You don’t have to look to know. The air is acrid with smoke, blown by our very strong and gusty Santa Ana winds.

I’ve been watching an Orange County Fire Authority chopper fly in, probably dropping water or retardant. He’s flying too low to see for sure.

Dangerous work. I can’t thank them enough.

More than likely this will be controlled. It’s a heavily populated area. There are scores of homes nearby.

In the meantime I’m here with Doppler, ready to go if we must.