Planes Crash, But This Is Different

Germanwings-Airbus-A320-200

I never had a fear of flying. Still, the French crash of the Germanwings Airbus has me totally freaked out.

I remember the EgyptAir crash from 1999. The airline tried to hide the suicidal cause, if memory serves.

And now I worry this is why MH370 was never found. An airline cockpit is an impenetrable cocoon.

From NPR:

Although uncommon, such incidents are not unheard of. Since the mid-1970s, air-crash investigations have brought to light eight others in which intentional actions by a pilot or co-pilot to bring down an aircraft were either confirmed or suspected.

The Daily Mail asks,

Was Andreas Lubitz inspired by other plane disasters? Germanwings pilot’s actions echo recent tragedies – and could explain what happened to MH370

Is there an industry that has a higher percentage of unhappy employees than the airlines?

I’m still not scared to fly. But none of this is comforting.

Trip To Riverside

We have been transformed. More and more we are losing our individual identity. It’s the price we pay for our more efficient economy. Local businesses struggle to compete.

RiversidehomesI drove to Riverside this evening to drop off a piece of equipment. Riverside is an interesting city. It’s totally a product of the automotive era. Without cars and freeways (and air conditioning) Riverside would still be dusty scrubland. It’s a valley made for smog!

In 1960 84,000 people lived in Riverside. It’s over 310,000 now. The area is dominated by Hispanic families, many of whom moved here to own a first home.

Riverside is built out, not up. It sprawls out as the capitol of the “Inland Empire.”

I’m sure there’s some special Riverside charm, but it is hidden under a deluge of national chains. There’s nothing in Riverside you can’t also find in Des Moines or Salt Lake City or Albany.

We have been transformed. More and more we are losing our individual identity. It’s the price we pay for our more efficient economy. Local businesses struggle to compete.

I parked between Trader Joe’s and Regal Cinema with a Bank America and Rite Aid across the driveway. Build more homes, get more Michaels or Ikea.

I didn’t stay long.

Rain For SoCal, Again

Once again we’re right on the 3-hour flash flood line. I expect some flooding. Homes in burn areas will be threatened by mudslides. A few inches of rain probable through this region.

1ref15min_t4sfc_f1015

Helaine saw the hashtag #stormageddon touted on TV a few minutes ago. SoCal is bracing… again. Is there some weird secret competition with the East on weather?

“Yeah… well… rain!”

Actually this storm looks very un-SoCalish. The radar from Vandenberg AFB shows a squall line out front. The HRRR agrees. The squalls remain intact as the line slides down the coast. Embedded thunderstorms are entirely possible.

We’ll have rain most of the day Friday though the bulk falls between 4-7 AM. We’re right on the 3-hour flash flood line, again. I expect some flooding. Homes in burn areas will be threatened by mudslides. A few inches of rain probable through this region.

wind15min_t410m_f0945The heaviest wind comes with the heaviest of the rain. Winds will gust out of the south. The wind map to the left highlights the higher ground where winds will be strongest.

If there’s snow for our two nearby tall peaks it will happen late in the storm. My second winter and no white so far.

Father north, San Francisco proper has gotten 2-4″ of rain with some windward mountainsides getting over 7″.

So far, this is the awful winter everyone was praying for!

Rain Is Different Here

In the burn areas, places that had fires in the last year or two, it will take much less for canyon walls to fall. The scrubby growth that held everything together was burned away.

People in scenic canyon homes are usually OK, not always. They always say they’ll rebuild.

When a storm approaches the Southern California coast, as is the case tonight, it’s a big deal!

Thank you weather.cod.edu

Rain leads the news in SoCal just like snow does in the Northeast.

Every area has some sort of natural Achilles heel. Ours is rain. Can’t live with it. Can’t live without it.

This is a semi-desert climate. We get our paltry rain in a very few large doses. The water is good for reducing fire danger and irrigation, but most of SoCal’s water comes from the Sierras, hundreds of miles away. Rain at my house isn’t quite as important as it seems.

The latest computer guidance says we can take around an inch of rain in an hour, up to three inches in six hours before we flood. Close call.

In the burn areas, places that had fires in the last year or two, it will take much less for canyon walls to fall. The scrubby growth that held everything together has burned away.

People in beautiful homes with spectacular views are usually OK, not always. Sometimes their houses fall. Other times something falls on their houses. They always say they’ll rebuild.

Irvine has a few large drainage channels carrying runoff to the sea. Always empty. That will change.

No snow for Santiago Peak–visible from the bedroom window. A quick estimate keeps the rain/snow line above 10,000 feet–higher than these mountains.

NERD ALERT — Feel free to skip the next paragraph.

In Connecticut I’d look for the 850mb 0C isotherm as a good rain/snow indicator. During this storm it will be close to 10C over me. These storms tend to be convective–so cellular. Rain amounts will vary greatly city-to-city.

Hopefully the storm’s mightest punch will be in the Sierras. If you start hearing of little mountain towns with a new feet of snow you’ll know we hit the jackpot!

Oh–people here can’t drive in rain. I’ll leave it there.

It Sounds Like New England

You would be hard pressed to show visible perspiration today. Santa Ana sneezes are often accompanied by a little blood on the tissue.

This is very dangerous fire weather.

NWS EDD

I woke this morning to a howling wind. The sound is unmistakable. We’re in SoCal, but my ears said winter in New England!

I’m hearing Santa Ana winds. These are dry, often hot winds coming from the east. The official meteorological term is katabatic.

A katabatic wind, from the Greek word katabatikos meaning “to flow downhill”, is the technical name for a drainage wind, a wind that carries high density air from a higher elevation down a slope under the force of gravity. Such winds are sometimes also called fall winds.

As the wind flows downhill it compresses, warms and dries. It picks up speed flowing through canyons and passes. The sound is the same, but the effect is nearly the opposite of the New England howl I’m attuned to.

FOR SAN BERNARDINO AND ORANGE COUNTIES…THE STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNRISE WITH HUMIDITIES FALLING TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS DURING THE MORNING. THE DRYING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. – NWS San Diego Area Forecast Discussion

At the moment the temperature is 73° and the dewpoint -8°! The relative humidity is 4%.

The wind sucks the moisture from anything it passes. You would be hard pressed to show visible perspiration today. Santa Ana sneezes are often accompanied by a little blood on the tissue.

This is very dangerous fire weather. We had drizzle a few days ago. Any beneficial effect of that rain is gone. If it’s not green it’s tinder.

Red Flag Warnings are up across Southern California. There will be fires. They will spread.

When a weather feature has its own name, it’s significant! Think Nor’easter.

A few more days of Santa Ana wind will follow.

Don’t Watch Cable News

gupta glassesIf you want to get scared keep cable news on all day. That’s my takeaway from a couple of days of doing just that! I’ve got the eebie jeebies over Ebola, or as it’s called in the Fox house, “The Ebola.”

That two health care professionals in bunny suits got infected seems totally Michael Crichton. Plausible fiction. But it’s real.

From here it looks like health care professionals were treating it too lightly. Dr. Nancy Snyderman, allegedly on voluntary quarantine, was ratted out for driving around her home in Princeton, NJ. Her quarantine is now mandatory.

And, as Crichton would have probably fictionalized for added drama, one of the two Ebola stricken nurses took two flights on jam-packed airliners. They’re petri dishes in the sky already. This is insult to injury.

I’m not an immunologist. I’m not a doctor. Take what I say with that admission.

We should have already figured out a cure. Maybe we already have in ZMapp–if there were any available.

Ebola is a nearly perfect disease to fight with genetically engineered drugs. Some people fight it off. Their blood has the answers.

ZMapp hasn’t been run through all the tests to be approved. It works flawlessly in monkeys. Human trials must be completed. Drugs have unforeseen side effects.

Beyond that, ZMapp takes time to produce. The drug is infused in growing tobacco leaves in a process is called “pharming.” This limits mass production.

This should have been done years ago, but it’s easy to not prepare for rare events.

Pandemics can happen. The last was the flu in 1918.

It infected 500 million people across the world, including remote Pacific islands and the Arctic, and killed 50 to 100 million of them—three to five percent of the world’s population—making it one of the deadliest natural disasters in human history. – Wikipedia

Today I worry about Ebola like I worry about a plane crash or car crash. All are possibilities, but remote.

In a week my opinion might change.

Smoke Is Scary

img_5005 silverado canyon fire20140912_1

Helaine called from the road. She wanted to tell me about the Silverado Canyon Fire. At eight miles distant, it’s far enough to not be a threat, but close enough to see. There’s a layer of dirty pink smoke to my northeast. The photo above shows the smoke plume rising well beyond the homes in my neighborhood.

30500 Silverado Canyon Rd   Google MapsIt’s a 200 acre brush fire in a steep walled canyon. There’s not a lot of wind today. I’m hoping firefighters knock it down quickly.

I can’t smell the smoke–we’ve already had a few of those in our fifteen months here. Seeing it rise is enough.

silverado-canyon-dropFox 11’s live chopper feed has been following tankers dropping water and flame retardant. From their 8,000 foot perch the blaze looks massive.

When you live in a place where rainy days are few and far between, fires are a natural worry. It’s all being brought home today.

Sometimes I Hate Knowing The Future

Meanwhile, as a forecaster (even if I do it just for fun right now) it’s sad to see tragedy unfold in slow motion. I didn’t know exactly where the flooding would be, but what we’ve seen the past few days was expected.

Deserts flood often.

phoenix flooding

Hurricane Norbert is a weird duck. It was a powerful hurricane. Then kryptonite. Cool water! Norbert deflated like a balloon.

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON NORBERT.

norbertMonday at 2:00 AM the Hurricane Center washed its hands. Norbert had ceased to exist.

Except, of course, nothing ceases to exist. It just shape shifts a little, takes on another form.

Norbert is now a flooding rainstorm. I was scared this was going to happen.

On Saturday I wrote:

This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these areas during the next few days.

COD Meteorology    NEXRAD Single Site Radar DataThe Mexican state of Sonora and extreme southern California and Arizona seem most susceptible.

I underestimated the scope. Phoenix broke it’s record for single day rainfall. There was more flooding farther north.

Meanwhile, as a forecaster (even if I do it just for fun right now) it’s sad to see tragedy unfold in slow motion. I didn’t know exactly where the flooding would be, but what we’ve seen the past few days was expected.

Deserts flood often. Their sparse rain comes in a very few intense storms. Water rises very quickly especially where there are steep mountains–as there are in the Southwest.

By the point my colleagues and I knew what was about to happen it was too late. Beside that our forecasts weren’t specific enough. Weather forecasting isn’t yet at the point where we can zero on a specific flood basin more than a few hours in advance.

TD5, But You’ll Probably Call Her Dolly

There’s concern, but it’s likely this storm won’t grow strong enough to produce major damage. Though water temperatures in the southern Gulf are bathtub warm, wind shear will limit intensification.

National Weather Service   Graphical ForecastThe Hurricane Center just gave a cluster of clouds in the Gulf of Mexico the once over. Those clouds are now Tropical Depression 5. Sustained winds are under 30 mph, but some strengthening is expected. TD5 will likely become Tropical Storm Dolly.

The midpoint of the Hurricane Center’s storm track is Tampico, on the Mexican Gulf Coast. Metro Tampico has nearly a million people.

There’s concern, but it’s likely this storm won’t grow strong enough to produce major damage. Though water temperatures in the southern Gulf are bathtub warm, wind shear will limit intensification.

rgb0-laloIn an average year we’re on the “E” storm on September 1. So far 2014 has only produced A, B and C.

In early August the Hurricane Center revised their pre-season “below average” forecast to point even more strongly in that direction. Being a few letters behind remains the expectation.

There’s still danger this hurricane season, but less than usual.

SoCal Weather: Mainly Gentle, But Interesting

Our earlier neighborhood wildfire is out. The Fire Authority reported 77 firefighters for the three acre blaze. I saw two copters. The air was pungent.

This area was built with the understanding that things burn. All the homes have fire suppression sprinklers. The roofs are mainly clay.

I’m sitting out in the California room. This is a protected spot, but I can see the effect of the wind whipping around me. The watering can is on its side. The thin mattress on the hammock is pointing down, not up. The overhead fan, turned off, is spinning slowly.

IMAG0936The sky is as blue as can be. I’m not sure it could be Photoshopped any bluer!

We’re at 94&#176. The dew point is 8&#176. It is very dry. I should be perspiring. Moisture evaporates before drops can form.

That’s part of the desert’s power. You can succumb to dehydration without suspecting you’re in trouble.

My lips are dry. Where’s the ChapStick?

IMG_0441Our earlier neighborhood wildfire is out. The Fire Authority reported 77 firefighters for the three acre blaze. I saw two copters. The air was pungent.

Thank you Orange County Fire Authority for keeping us safe. We appreciate your dangerous mission on our behalf.

This area was built with the understanding that things burn. All the homes have fire suppression sprinklers. The roofs are mainly clay.

I leave my laptop out here on the sofa. It’s full of dust. Maybe I should reconsider? Maybe it’s too late?

The weather here in SoCal is usually gentle, but it has interesting twists and turns. Another one is coming tomorrow.

Does It Scare Me? Yes It Does!

You don’t have to look to know. The air is acrid with smoke, blown by our very strong and gusty Santa Ana winds.

I’ve been watching an Orange County Fire Authority chopper fly in, probably dropping water or retardant. He’s flying too low to see for sure.

Dangerous work. I can’t thank them enough.

IMG_0418

IMG_0427

Two sounds dominate my neighborhood this afternoon: copters and firetrucks!

Fire!

Nearby!

I estimate it around a half mile from here.

You don’t have to look to know. The air is acrid with smoke, blown by our very strong and gusty Santa Ana winds.

I’ve been watching an Orange County Fire Authority chopper fly in, probably dropping water or retardant. He’s flying too low to see for sure.

Dangerous work. I can’t thank them enough.

More than likely this will be controlled. It’s a heavily populated area. There are scores of homes nearby.

In the meantime I’m here with Doppler, ready to go if we must.

Honey, Wake Up. We’re Having An Earthquake!

Screenshot_2014-03-28-21-27-10

Doppler and I were peacefully napping on the sofa when Helaine took to her feet.

“Honey, wake up. We’re having an earthquake.”

I opened my eyes and stared down at the couch’s fabric a few inches from my nose. The house was shaking.

5.1 earthquake in La Habra! My earthquake map says 19 miles from here.

Screenshot_2014-03-28-21-28-16KCAL 9 news was on. Within a few seconds they were in quake mode. A live seismograph jiggled across the screen.

Much like a bell that had been rung, SoCal was still shaking. It wasn’t strong enough to feel by this time, but more than enough to measure. The quake’s movement covered the entire graph.

Rides at Disneyland have been stopped. The LA subway and other rail lines have slowed down to inspect tracks. Choppers are flying over a water main, now flooding a La Habra intersection.

Tonight’s quake was actually a swarm of quakes. There were at least 10 greater than magnitude 2.0, a few stronger than a 3. We felt a few, though none as strongly as what happened at 9:09 PM PDT.

seismo plotStef felt it in Hollywood too. She had just hung something on the wall and was staring at it as it began to shake.

Back on TV, KCAL went to a live shot from a restaurant here in Orange County. There were broken bottles on the floor, but normal activity had already resumed. Californians have been through this before.

So, this is what it’s like.

Doppler slept.

Two Thirds Of The Fox Family Felt The Quake

FireShot-Screen-Capture-#002---'Google-Maps'---www_google_com_maps_@34_134916,-118_48597,3a,75y,27_3h,90t_data=!3m4!1e1!3m2!1smimYdJKZc1uXvgSr660hcg!2e0There was an earthquake this morning. It came at 6:25:36 AM PDT. Helaine felt it. Stef felt it. Geoff slept!

It’s the first time in my life I can look at an epicenter and say, “I know where that is.” The plots put it just off Sepulveda, on the Valley side of Mullholland, overlooking Sherman Oaks and Encino in a beautiful area of expensive homes.

Helaine was awake. She knew what it was immediately and noted the time.

“The bed shook and the before it stopped shaking stuff started shaking on your nightstand.”

That’s at a distance of 53 miles.

Up in Hollywood and 45 miles closer to the epicenter, Stef was answering Roxie’s call for food. As they sat on the bed her ci15476961_ciim_geobuilding started to sway like one of those air powered attention getters that sit outside stores&#185.

Buildings are supposed to sway. It’s sway or snap! All modern buildings here are designed that way. That’s why a 4.4 quake did virtually no damage.

In the ’94 Northridge quake there were reports of liquefaction, where the ground temporarily acts like a liquid. None today. No major landslides either. That’s a big worry in areas that have had recent fires.

Earthquakes are a way of life in California. We live over a subduction zone. There is a constant buildup of pressure as the Earth’s crust bends, then breaks. The mythical “big one” will unleash hundreds, maybe thousands, of times the energy this little shake produced.

There are limits to our preparation.

&#185 – The closest I can find to their actual name is “wacky inflatable flailing arm advertising men.”

It Doesn’t Take Much To Cause Trouble In SoCal

boulder on road

The 4:00 PM PST rainfall totals are in for our second storm. If this was the East Coast or Midwest these numbers would be no big deal. Here in SoCal the bar for weather related tsuris is much lower.

canyone-road-blockedWe’ve had mud and rockslides, trees falling on homes and cars, rescues from the concrete channel known as the LA River and mandatory evacuations in Azusa and Glendora.

We’re not done! There’s another 1-2″ or rain due through early Sunday.

The threshold is lower now. The ground is saturated.

Helaine was shaking her head earlier as we watched a homeowner from Azusa interviewed on TV. He was talking about his fears. Mud was already flowing into his yard. He expected part of a hillside to let loose, wiping out a stand of avocado trees and probably taking down his substantial backyard fence. Left unsaid, whether his house might be destroyed too.

dozer debris removalWhy do people live in these susceptible areas? Simply put, it’s gorgeous.

If all you looked at was the hazards, no one would live in SoCal. We’re prone to fires, floods, slides, quakes and more. Of course everyone looks at those hazards, remembers the rest of the SoCal climate, then compartmentalizes them out of the equation.

After every disaster the most repeated word is, “rebuild.”

.ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS
 
 ID:     STATION            PRECIP(IN)    ELEV(FT)
 
 SDYBL:  YORBA LINDA            1.69         370         
 SDFRH:  LAKE FOREST            1.44         970         
 SJNC1:  SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO    1.34          75         
 SDLGH:  LAGUNA HILLS           1.27         400         
 SDSAA:  SANTA ANA              1.14         130         
 FUL  :  FULLERTON              1.13          96         
 SNA  :  JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT     1.12          50         
 CTMC1:  COSTA MESA             1.10          47         
 SDDPC:  DANA POINT             1.01         305         
 LGUC1:  LAGUNA BEACH           0.90          47         
 SDHTB:  HUNTINGTON BEACH       0.89           5     

  
.LOS ANGELES COUNTY METROPOLITAN  
AVALON INLAND..................... 1.29  
HAWTHORNE (KHHR).................. 1.40  
LA AIRPORT(KLAX).................. 1.62  
LA DOWNTOWN (CQT)................. 2.28  
LONG BEACH (KLGB)................. 1.03  
SANTA MONICA (KSMO)............... 1.68  
REDONDO BEACH..................... 1.28  
TORRANCE.......................... 1.11  
MONTE NIDO........................ 2.48  
BEL AIR........................... 2.60  
CULVER CITY....................... 1.30  
GETTY CENTER...................... 2.58  
BEVERLY HILLS..................... 2.39  
HOLLYWOOD RESERVOIR............... 2.01  
SOUTH GATE........................ 1.28  
  
.LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS  
VAN NUYS (KVNY)................... 2.60  
NORTHRIDGE........................ 2.08  
WOODLAND HILLS.................... 2.63  
AGOURA HILLS...................... 3.11  
CHATSWORTH RESERVOIR.............. 2.27  
CANOGA PARK....................... 2.21  
PACOIMA DAM....................... 2.80  
HANSEN DAM........................ 2.42  
NEWHALL........................... 2.99  
SAUGUS............................ 1.47  
DEL VALLE......................... 1.45  
EAGLE ROCK RESERVOIR.............. 2.60  
PASADENA.......................... 2.64  
ALHAMBRA.......................... 2.06  
EATON DAM......................... 2.36  
LA VERNE.......................... 1.61  
SANTA FE DAM...................... 2.19  
POMONA............................ 1.12  
CLAREMONT......................... 1.28  
  
.LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS  
SANDBERG (KSDB)................... 2.18  
INSPIRATION POINT................. 3.35  
WEST FORK HELIPORT................ 5.67  
SANTA ANITA DAM................... 2.79  
SAN GABRIEL DAM................... 4.72  
MORRIS DAM........................ 3.19  
CRYSTAL LAKE...................... 5.78  
OPIDS CAMP........................ 6.33  
SIERRA MADRE...................... 2.39  
TANBARK........................... 3.16  
SAN ANTONIO DAM................... 1.67  
MILL CREEK SUMMIT................. 1.28  
CHILAO............................ 1.27  
MT BALDY.......................... 4.52  
WHITAKER PEAK..................... 3.58  
WARM SPRINGS...................... 2.38  
ACTON............................. 1.66  
CAMP 9............................ 2.06  
  
.LOS ANGELES COUNTY DESERTS  
POPPY PARK........................ 2.64  
LANCASTER (KWJF).................. 1.54  
PALMDALE (KPMD)................... 1.02  
LAKE PALMDALE..................... 0.63  
SADDLEBACK BUTTE.................. 0.36  
VALYERMO.......................... 2.54  

This Storm Is A Big Deal

sgx qpf map

I’m watching a PowerPoint presentation from the NWS San Diego office on the upcoming storm. One of their meteorologists, Brandt Maxwell, has just gone through an impact table and is beginning rainfall projections.

“You don’t see rainfall maps like this too often in Southern California.”

This storm is a big deal.

Those who report the news have dialed it up. It’s the biggest storm in years.

SoCal is a fragile flower as far as weather is concerned. We can’t take a lot. We’re not equipped.

We have roads that flood, hills that slide and boulders that tumble. Drainage, especially in older areas, is iffy. A house sized piece of mountain relocating itself to the middle of a highway isn’t uncommon here.

Traffic will slow to a crawl. Actually, it’s already done that. Traffic will just stop.

We live in amazing times. Everything needed to monitor and forecast the weather is at my desktop. I will do both for the next few days.