Geography of California – Geoff Fox: My Permanent Record

A Definite Maybe

Since last Wednesday I’ve been talking about the chance of the Palm Springs area getting a few sprinkles this Thursday. In most places caring about an iffy forecast for a tiny event so far in advance would be a non-starter. Not so in the desert where long time residents look forward to our few cloudy days!

So, here we are Monday. This is the sixth day since rain was first mentioned. I’m barely closer to knowing than I was then!

First, an admission. Without supercomputers no one could attempt a seven or eight day forecast. The atmosphere’s just too complex. But computer’s have shortcomings. I use the GFS model this far out.

The entire globe is covered by the GFS at a base horizontal resolution of 18 miles (28 kilometers) between grid points, which is used by the operational forecasters who predict weather out to 16 days in the future. Horizontal resolution drops to 44 miles (70 kilometers) between grid point for forecasts between one week and two weeks.

One point every 18 miles! At that resolution mountains disappear. Everything becomes a coarse approximation.

Later today Thursday will be seen in the much higher resolution CANSAC (California and Nevada Smoke and Air Committee) WRF model. CANSAC’s WRF only sees out 72 hours, but with 2km (1.2 mile) resolution.

For the geekiest reading, here’s the hardware CANSAC uses to run the WRF.

The CANSAC WRF real-time forecast system is operated on an SGI® ICE 8200 high-performance computer. Specifications are:

256 cores (Intel Xeon X5570)
384 GB RAM memory
20 TB disk space.

In the interim lots of human expertise is needed. The mountains west of the Coachella Valley are critically important. The models might not resolve them well, but I have to. They are a major reason we see less than six inches of rain in an average year (just over two inches since this year’s ‘wet’ season began in October).

I said Wednesday the coast was much more likely to see rain than Palm Springs. That still holds true.

If we get anything it will be tiny. In the desert that’s enough to perk ears.

Rain’s A Big Deal Here

We do a seven day forecast at KMIR. Yesterday I mentioned Day Eight. It got a shout out (as Day Seven) again tonight. That’s because there’s rain forecast next Thursday.

The actual value to rain in the Coachella Valley (Palm Springs area) is debatable. We average less than six inches per year. The majority of our water comes from an underground aquifer. It would be long gone if not supplemented by water piped in from Parker Dam on the Colorado River. Rainfall seeping down is a small piece of our specific puzzle.

Nature doesn’t provide nearly enough to support our population and the hundreds of thousands of tourists who arrive every week during the season.

Whether rainwater helps or not, people in the valley value it. Mentioning rain here is like mentioning snow in New England. It grabs your attention.

If you break down next Thursday’s rain forecast over Palm Springs, it comes to .06″. Tiny. Hardly noticeable.

A forecast for that small amount of liquid a week away is chancy at best, especially when you throw in:

EARLY NEXT WEEK A GULF OF ALASKA LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SEND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DOWN THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS UNUSUAL APRIL PATTERN WOULD BRING A DECENT CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION IF WERE TO UNFOLD. BUT THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN FORECAST SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER AND HAS EITHER 1) SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENED OVER TIME OR 2) FAILED TO MATERIALIZE AT ALL. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER STAGES OF NEXT WEEK. – Area Forecast Discussion NWS San Diego

Wish us luck. It will get my attention on every newscast.

Who Said I’d Be Bored?

Some computer models show around an inch of rain in Palm Springs by Monday morning. That’s a lot in a place that floods easily. I spent time tonight explaining ‘washes’ to the tourists and snowbirds watching.

I’m forecasting the weather for the Coachella Valley at KMIR. The physics of weather are the same, but there are different tools to use.

Satellite imagery is a lot more important here. Anything coming from the Pacific is out of radar range nearly all the way to the coast.

I’ve been looking at a plume of moisture from north of Hawaii curving up the Pacific then back down the West Coast. It’s the big weekend weather maker for SoCal. The only way to see it is from the bird.

Saturday, while it’s raining in LA and San Diego, there will be partly cloudy skies over Palm Springs with a few sprinkles. We are protected by steep mountains, some over 11,000 feet tall.

On Sunday the moisture heads in from the south. No protection there! That’s when we get the bulk of our rain.

On top of the rain we’ve got wind for Saturday and as much as a foot and a half of snow in some mountain locations.

Who said I’d be bored forecasting here?

Trip To Riverside

We have been transformed. More and more we are losing our individual identity. It’s the price we pay for our more efficient economy. Local businesses struggle to compete.

I drove to Riverside this evening to drop off a piece of equipment. Riverside is an interesting city. It’s totally a product of the automotive era. Without cars and freeways (and air conditioning) Riverside would still be dusty scrubland. It’s a valley made for smog!

In 1960 84,000 people lived in Riverside. It’s over 310,000 now. The area is dominated by Hispanic families, many of whom moved here to own a first home.

Riverside is built out, not up. It sprawls out as the capitol of the “Inland Empire.”

I’m sure there’s some special Riverside charm, but it is hidden under a deluge of national chains. There’s nothing in Riverside you can’t also find in Des Moines or Salt Lake City or Albany.

We have been transformed. More and more we are losing our individual identity. It’s the price we pay for our more efficient economy. Local businesses struggle to compete.

I parked between Trader Joe’s and Regal Cinema with a Bank America and Rite Aid across the driveway. Build more homes, get more Michaels or Ikea.

I didn’t stay long.

Rain Shade Is Major

Locales have individual climatic quirks like baseball parks have ground rules. The Coachella Valley, where the vast majority of our viewers live, is a protected valley. We are flanked by mountains. We get “rain shade.” Real term. I didn’t make it up.

My job is forecasting the weather at KMIR. Our market, Palm Springs, covers a small geographic area. It’s not even a whole county!

People think it’s boring to forecast in the desert. Nah. Sometimes it’s repetitive. I can deal with that. There’s always something interesting going on.

The San Bernardino Mountains are north, San Jacinto and Santa Ana Mountains west and the Little San Bernardino Mountains are off to the east. We’re wedged in tight.

A small storm hitting SoCal this weekend will drop nearly all its rain before it gets to Palm Springs! The largest rainfall will be on the eastern slopes of the Santa Ana’s. The east face of the San Jacinto range should drain most of what’s left. The tallest mountaintops will get snow.

The notoriously awful QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) from the GFS model say .06″ Sunday and another .04″ Monday at Palm Springs Airport (PSP). John Wayne Airport (SNA), west of Palm Springs and on the coastal side of the mountains, is forecast for .33″, over three times as much.

There’s are reasons Palm Springs gets less than six inches of rain in an average year. Rain shade is major.

The Longer Way To Work

I was looking at traffic, but not paying a lot of attention to navigating. Then I passed the sign that said I was entering San Diego County. That’s not right.

My route to work is simple. Well, usually it’s simple. Not today.

I was on the phone with my friend Barry Schulman, chatting and enjoying the ride. I was looking at traffic, but not paying a lot of attention to navigating. Then I passed the sign that said I was entering San Diego County. That’s not right.

Somehow I’d gotten off CA91 and onto I-15. I was making good time, just not in the right direction.

The GPS, not turned on until now, pointed the way through desert and chaparral via CA371 and CA74 (aka the “Pines to Palms Highway”). These were two lane roads through the wilderness. I passed three Indian Reservations, a handful of ranches and one outcropping with horse sculptures.

My 1:40 trip took an extra hour!

There is good news. Within 10 miles of Palm Desert is Vista Point. You’re high above the Coachella Valley with a spectacular view of the Palm Springs region and the hairpin of a road I was on.

Back At Work

IMAG2066

I’m back in Palm Springs. Gino and Janet at 5 and 6. Gino solo at 9 and 11. Excellent. Good company.

I’m here while Helaine wrangles the electrician tomorrow. Sockets are being added and removed. Studio lights and a large digital clock are being hung.

My phone is by the bed.

The boss wanted my hair shorter. Fine. Joseph does a lot of TV people in LA and spends weekends in Palm Springs. Looks good… and short.

I’m in a nice hotel near the Indian Wells “Tennis Garden.” My room for the week is really a small one bedroom apartment. They call it a suite. Not home. It makes my stay much easier.

Quiet right now. Peacefully so. TV off. We’ll see how long I can take the lack of stimulation.

My place has a giant balcony with a mediocre view of an interior courtyard. It’s better than that sentence makes it sound. 77 tomorrow! I’ll open the door and let the fresh air in.

I assume a few of you are Coachella Valley residents who Googled my name, found my site and started reading.

Hi!

You live in a wonderful area. It’s beautiful here. Even the summer.

I’m Geoff. This is my blog, a fairly detailed retelling of my life since July 4, 2003. There’s a new entry nearly every day.

I’m on Facebook and Twitter and respond to comments. I like forecasting the weather and talking about it on TV.

All weather forecasters are reasonably accurate nowadays. I make no claim to have the highest accuracy. My strength is explaining the weather in a way that leaves you understanding what’s to come while enjoying yourself.

I am loose on-the-air and often ‘break the fourth wall.’ Call me enthusiastic.

Find me weeknights at 5,6,9 and 11 on KMIR and KPSE. My wife and daughter will appreciate it.

It’s Winter In SoCal

The NWS chat channel has been up in another browser window most of the past two days. It’s a meeting place for media, emergency managers and NWS forecasters. All the chatter has been winter related.

Finally after a year and a half, SoCal winter has found the Foxes.

The main player is a storm from the north which managed to stay inland and stay cold. It doesn’t happen often.

Indio, at the far end of the Coachella Valley, only got to 53 today. Every other December 31 on record was warmer by at least two degrees and the record goes back to 1894!

We’re about as far south as Charleston, SC. Snow fell at an altitude of 1350 feet above sea level.

Hundreds of cars were stranded in dozens of spots. Parts of I-10 and I-15 were snowcovered. Driving in snow is much different here where slopes are steep and long. Chains are required.

My cousin, Melissa told Helaine this was the coldest she could remember. The wind was probably her deciding factor. We had gusts in the mid 30s overnight. Trash cans were flying. Some mountaintops and passes went over 60 mph.

The Sun was out this morning. I looked toward Santiago Peak, around dozen miles from here, and saw white!

“Be right back,” I told Helaine, then hopped in the car to take the two shots above.

By early next week we’ll be back in the mid 70s. It’s winter in SoCal.

Shooting At Seal Beach

As mentioned yesterday, Saturday was the annual Worldwide Photo Walk. I signed up to walk in Seal Beach. Nice people. Lackluster setting.

I was very disappointed in what I brought home. Part of it was my self imposed lens limit. Part had to do with experimenting with neutral density filters. Part had to do with Seal Beach itself and the fact SB sunset shots include the oil derricks in Long Beach.

Oh–hazy too.

However, there’s a nice payoff in spite of my ineptitude. I just got this email from Gena.

We were so fortunate to have you photograph us last night. We talked about it being a magical moment. We were talking about our hopes and dreams and you captured the moment. We would love it if you could send the photo our way. We are going to be grandparents this week and would love to share with our grandkids some day. Thank you! We are eternally grateful!

I came across Gena and her husband after the Sun had set. They were on the wet sand above the high water mark just north of the Seal Beach Pier. They were alone on the beach… except for the guy with camera gear moving toward them.

If I wanted I could have started snapping away without asking. The law says you have no expectation of privacy in a public place. That’s not how I operate.

They were in a conversation. I stood three or four feet back and tried to get their attention. It took a few tries over the sound of the waves before I made contact.

I told them they would make a beautiful shot, from the rear with no identifiable faces. Would it be OK?

All I asked was for them to be still. I didn’t want to pop a flash. This would be a long exposure. I planted my tripod in the sand, got it as low as possible and hoped for the best.

I used my 8mm fisheye for the shot. It’s totally manual, even focusing.

Here’s the rest of my catch. You’ll notice no pictures of the sunset itself! I found the ’47 Packard while walking to my car.

BTW — if there are seals at Seal Beach, I didn’t see them.

Smoke Is Scary

Helaine called from the road. She wanted to tell me about the Silverado Canyon Fire. At eight miles distant, it’s far enough to not be a threat, but close enough to see. There’s a layer of dirty pink smoke to my northeast. The photo above shows the smoke plume rising well beyond the homes in my neighborhood.

It’s a 200 acre brush fire in a steep walled canyon. There’s not a lot of wind today. I’m hoping firefighters knock it down quickly.

I can’t smell the smoke–we’ve already had a few of those in our fifteen months here. Seeing it rise is enough.

Fox 11’s live chopper feed has been following tankers dropping water and flame retardant. From their 8,000 foot perch the blaze looks massive.

When you live in a place where rainy days are few and far between, fires are a natural worry. It’s all being brought home today.

My First Vlog Post: A Trip To The Wedge

I visited The Wedge in Newport Beach this afternoon. It’s a famous surf break. Lowell, a not as famous Eastern Pacific tropical storm, has blessed The Wedge with heavy surf.

I visited The Wedge in Newport Beach this afternoon. It’s a famous surf break. Lowell, a not as famous Eastern Pacific tropical storm, has blessed The Wedge with heavy surf. Not great surf, just big.

This is the story of my trip to photograph it and some of my shots. Please click the button and watch my short video.

Lunch In Surf City

“We should get together,” I said a few days ago to Larry Fitzgerald. This afternoon we were texting each other to apologize for traffic and parking related delays.

We met in Huntington Beach, aka Surf City. It’s two days before the US Open of Surfing. It’s “the season” in HB.

There was trouble at the Open last year. Violence. Rioting. Huntington Beach suffered a black eye then worked hard publicly to guarantee there would be no repeat in 2014.

It was hot in SoCal today. Temps were near 90 just a few blocks inland. At the HB Pier the report was 78&#176 with the water at 68&#176. Lovely.

We were going to lunch at Ruby’s, a 50s themed diner at the end of Huntington Beach’s long fishing pier. We were there for the schmooze, not the kitsch.

Considering it’s Thursday the beach and pier were jammed! This is an active beach with volleyball, bicycling and surfing. An in-water lifesaving course was in progress alongside the pier.

It was hazy today, but I made out Santa Catalina in the distance and a few offshore oil rigs which look a lot closer in my photo than they actually are.

This is oil country. I even shot pumps in action behind someone’s house!

We decided we’ll meet again. Cameras again too!

It Doesn’t Take Much To Cause Trouble In SoCal

The 4:00 PM PST rainfall totals are in for our second storm. If this was the East Coast or Midwest these numbers would be no big deal. Here in SoCal the bar for weather related tsuris is much lower.

We’ve had mud and rockslides, trees falling on homes and cars, rescues from the concrete channel known as the LA River and mandatory evacuations in Azusa and Glendora.

We’re not done! There’s another 1-2″ or rain due through early Sunday.

The threshold is lower now. The ground is saturated.

Helaine was shaking her head earlier as we watched a homeowner from Azusa interviewed on TV. He was talking about his fears. Mud was already flowing into his yard. He expected part of a hillside to let loose, wiping out a stand of avocado trees and probably taking down his substantial backyard fence. Left unsaid, whether his house might be destroyed too.

Why do people live in these susceptible areas? Simply put, it’s gorgeous.

If all you looked at was the hazards, no one would live in SoCal. We’re prone to fires, floods, slides, quakes and more. Of course everyone looks at those hazards, remembers the rest of the SoCal climate, then compartmentalizes them out of the equation.

After every disaster the most repeated word is, “rebuild.”

.ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS
 
 ID:     STATION            PRECIP(IN)    ELEV(FT)
 
 SDYBL:  YORBA LINDA            1.69         370         
 SDFRH:  LAKE FOREST            1.44         970         
 SJNC1:  SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO    1.34          75         
 SDLGH:  LAGUNA HILLS           1.27         400         
 SDSAA:  SANTA ANA              1.14         130         
 FUL  :  FULLERTON              1.13          96         
 SNA  :  JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT     1.12          50         
 CTMC1:  COSTA MESA             1.10          47         
 SDDPC:  DANA POINT             1.01         305         
 LGUC1:  LAGUNA BEACH           0.90          47         
 SDHTB:  HUNTINGTON BEACH       0.89           5     

  
.LOS ANGELES COUNTY METROPOLITAN  
AVALON INLAND..................... 1.29  
HAWTHORNE (KHHR).................. 1.40  
LA AIRPORT(KLAX).................. 1.62  
LA DOWNTOWN (CQT)................. 2.28  
LONG BEACH (KLGB)................. 1.03  
SANTA MONICA (KSMO)............... 1.68  
REDONDO BEACH..................... 1.28  
TORRANCE.......................... 1.11  
MONTE NIDO........................ 2.48  
BEL AIR........................... 2.60  
CULVER CITY....................... 1.30  
GETTY CENTER...................... 2.58  
BEVERLY HILLS..................... 2.39  
HOLLYWOOD RESERVOIR............... 2.01  
SOUTH GATE........................ 1.28  
  
.LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS  
VAN NUYS (KVNY)................... 2.60  
NORTHRIDGE........................ 2.08  
WOODLAND HILLS.................... 2.63  
AGOURA HILLS...................... 3.11  
CHATSWORTH RESERVOIR.............. 2.27  
CANOGA PARK....................... 2.21  
PACOIMA DAM....................... 2.80  
HANSEN DAM........................ 2.42  
NEWHALL........................... 2.99  
SAUGUS............................ 1.47  
DEL VALLE......................... 1.45  
EAGLE ROCK RESERVOIR.............. 2.60  
PASADENA.......................... 2.64  
ALHAMBRA.......................... 2.06  
EATON DAM......................... 2.36  
LA VERNE.......................... 1.61  
SANTA FE DAM...................... 2.19  
POMONA............................ 1.12  
CLAREMONT......................... 1.28  
  
.LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS  
SANDBERG (KSDB)................... 2.18  
INSPIRATION POINT................. 3.35  
WEST FORK HELIPORT................ 5.67  
SANTA ANITA DAM................... 2.79  
SAN GABRIEL DAM................... 4.72  
MORRIS DAM........................ 3.19  
CRYSTAL LAKE...................... 5.78  
OPIDS CAMP........................ 6.33  
SIERRA MADRE...................... 2.39  
TANBARK........................... 3.16  
SAN ANTONIO DAM................... 1.67  
MILL CREEK SUMMIT................. 1.28  
CHILAO............................ 1.27  
MT BALDY.......................... 4.52  
WHITAKER PEAK..................... 3.58  
WARM SPRINGS...................... 2.38  
ACTON............................. 1.66  
CAMP 9............................ 2.06  
  
.LOS ANGELES COUNTY DESERTS  
POPPY PARK........................ 2.64  
LANCASTER (KWJF).................. 1.54  
PALMDALE (KPMD)................... 1.02  
LAKE PALMDALE..................... 0.63  
SADDLEBACK BUTTE.................. 0.36  
VALYERMO.......................... 2.54

This Sanctuary Is For The Birds

Three camera safaris over three days. “Clicky” and I have been busy! This afternoon I joined my cousins at the San Joaquin Wildlife Sanctuary, just across from UC Irvine.

The sanctuary sits on 200 acres owned by the Irvine Ranch Water District. It serves wildlife and people.

The wetlands are a critical component of IRWD’s Natural Treatment System, as they naturally clean urban runoff from San Diego Creek and help to protect the environmentally sensitive Upper Newport Bay. After interacting with the bulrush and other plants for seven to ten days, up to 70 percent of the nitrogen is removed. The cleaner water is returned to the creek to continue its journey to Upper Newport Bay and the ocean. – IRWD website

In many ways this site is similar to Wakodahatchee Wetlands, near where my folks lived in Florida.

The first thing you notice when you step out of the car&#185 is the sound. There are thousands of birds in close proximity. They’re not quiet!

We arrived as afternoon ‘golden light’ was fading. Bird photography needs light. There was little. That limited what I could capture.

San Joaquin is less than 15 minutes from here. There’s no doubt I’ll be back to see more.

&#185 – The last thing I noticed was bird poop on my nice new car! I’ll let it pass this time. No repeats, please.

Surf City Sunset

Until I moved here I had no idea Huntington Beach was Surf City. It is. I’ve been to HB a few times already, always with my camera. This afternoon it was me, “Clicky” and a bag full of lenses.

Over the past few days the forecast has pointed toward swells from a mid-Pacific storm hitting the coast. They wouldn’t be giants, but this winter has been disappointing to SoCal surfers.

“Isn’t it a little late,” Helaine asked? I was leaving around 4:00 PM.

The idea was to combine a little surf photography with sunset and whatever else I could find. I went to the beach unprepared! I was wearing jeans and sneakers. Somehow, the walking across the sand and into the ocean part hadn’t clicked. I ended up barefoot with my cuffs rolled up.

I like the vibe at HB. The whole beach area has a friendly feel with people of every shape, size and color.

The photo at the top of this entry is a 14 shot panorama. It was stitched together in the computer. Panoramas are very wide angle shots.

As I was repositioning myself near the base of the pier I walked by two girls. One was jumping while the other was trying to take a cellphone shot. I asked if I could give it a try.

I tried first without a light, but the contrast between the sky and her was too much. The finished photo uses the flash on the camera. I can’t remember the last time it was used.

Click the photo to see a larger version.

The temperature was mild and the beach stayed crowded as the Sun dipped behind Santa Catalina Island. The real show begins after sunset as the sky cycles through its colors until the clouds turn a fiery red.

And it’s January.

Damn!

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