Sometimes I Hate Knowing The Future

Meanwhile, as a forecaster (even if I do it just for fun right now) it’s sad to see tragedy unfold in slow motion. I didn’t know exactly where the flooding would be, but what we’ve seen the past few days was expected.

Deserts flood often.

phoenix flooding

Hurricane Norbert is a weird duck. It was a powerful hurricane. Then kryptonite. Cool water! Norbert deflated like a balloon.

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON NORBERT.

norbertMonday at 2:00 AM the Hurricane Center washed its hands. Norbert had ceased to exist.

Except, of course, nothing ceases to exist. It just shape shifts a little, takes on another form.

Norbert is now a flooding rainstorm. I was scared this was going to happen.

On Saturday I wrote:

This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these areas during the next few days.

COD Meteorology    NEXRAD Single Site Radar DataThe Mexican state of Sonora and extreme southern California and Arizona seem most susceptible.

I underestimated the scope. Phoenix broke it’s record for single day rainfall. There was more flooding farther north.

Meanwhile, as a forecaster (even if I do it just for fun right now) it’s sad to see tragedy unfold in slow motion. I didn’t know exactly where the flooding would be, but what we’ve seen the past few days was expected.

Deserts flood often. Their sparse rain comes in a very few intense storms. Water rises very quickly especially where there are steep mountains–as there are in the Southwest.

By the point my colleagues and I knew what was about to happen it was too late. Beside that our forecasts weren’t specific enough. Weather forecasting isn’t yet at the point where we can zero on a specific flood basin more than a few hours in advance.

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