Tag: president

A Night For Numbers

I’m in a very mathematic mood – if such a thing is possible. I got home late after Monday Night Football, sat down and played some poker online. I haven’t written about poker too much lately. Maybe that’s because of how poorly I’ve been doing for nearly two months.

Some of it is bad luck, but the majority is bad play. I see the trend, which is too much aggression on marginally winning hands. If you go all in four times and win only three, you’re gone. I have to be more conservative in that way. Keep my neck off the chopping block.

I have moved down in stakes and reined myself in. So far I’ve done OK against lesser competition. We’re still up since August 2003, but much of our winnings have been squandered by me.

I have to maintain discipline. I can’t play on tilt. Bluffing is a good plot technique in a novel, but a losing strategy in real life poker.

Like I said, I was really into numbers tonight. There was poker and before that my new found infatuation with the ridiculous traffic this site had on Monday. With more traditional, higher ranked sites now on the Ashlee Simpson story, I’ll soon be relegated to the third and fourth page in the Google results and my traffic will tail off.

My final numbers play was looking at the latest election polls. It is too late to look at the popular vote. Analyzing raw numbers is a fool’s game since it isn’t how we elect a president anyway.

I looked at state by state polls on the three sites I’ve grown to enjoy for this: The New York Times, Slate&#185, and my new discovery RealClearPolitics.com.

I love thumbing through the charts and maps on each of the sites and reading their analysis. This is definitely like predicting the weather… actually predicting a snowstorm. I say that because predicting snow is inherently difficult. There are parameters that interact with each other and the data is never as complete or as well initialized as you’d like.

The wild card in this election is voter turnout. Most of the major polling companies limit their surveys to likely voters, and they are qualified based on historical criteria. It seems to me, and this is gut not science, that the turnout for this election will be higher than historical norms. That would mean there will be more voters than the surveys take into account. Will those additional voters vote the same way as the likely voters surveyed?

If the election does draw a heavy turnout, will lines or delays at the polls send people home without casting a ballot? Will those people correspond proportionally to the survey results?

I don’t know. But, it stands to reason, the more unknown variables that are thrown in, the less likely it is that the election will be accurately called.

Just as each individual forecast has a separate degree of difficulty, so too do elections. This one is incredibly tough to call, but is fascinating to look at piece-by-piece. And, unfortunately, just because I have lots of pieces to look at doesn’t mean I will understand any more.

&#185 – Last week I wrote about Slate’s state-by-state polls showing Kerry ahead. Tonight that is reversed with President Bush leading 276 to 262.

It Could Happen Again

I am a math guy, so I spend time every day looking at the numbers in the presidential polls. This election is, among other things, fascinating by its mathematical complexity.

Most, not all, polls currently show President Bush with a small lead among likely voters. There’s some question how well the concept of ‘likely voters’ will hold up if this is an election with a very large turnout. Forget that for a moment.

Let’s just say the polls are right, and President Bush takes home a majority of the popular vote. I’m not sure he’ll win. In fact, it is conceivable that Senator Kerry could win the majority of electoral votes without a popular vote plurality.

That would be the Democrats accomplishing the unlikely feat that the Republicans pulled off four years ago. Probability has no memory. Rare events can happen back-to-back.

For the first time tonight, that fact (is fact the right word when all of this is really guesswork piled upon more guesswork?) is headlined on Slate.com&#185. Slate’s home page says:

If America Voted Today – Kerry 276, Bush 262

I’ve been seeing similar numbers when I view statewide polls. Florida is very close – probably too close. But, Pennsylvania looks to be ‘blue’ and now Ohio, Wisconsin and Michigan are also leaning that way.

As a kid, I remember the Kennedy – Nixon election of 1960. We went to sleep late at night not knowing who won. It is my earliest remembrance of an election. I figured they’d all be that way, but none were… until 2000.

All night? Hell, we waited weeks to find out what was going on.

Remember hanging chads in Florida? People claimed they meant to vote for Al Gore, but voted for Patrick Buchannon by mistake.

I’m not sure how that was read by the rest of the world, but it probably didn’t show our best side. It could happen again.

In the meantime, watching national polls is now worthless. Watch the individual battleground states because that’s where the election will be won or lost. This is the site I go to most often. It might not be the best, but it’s got lots of numbers. I like numbers.

&#185 – I am saddened to see Slate use a photo of a smiling John Kerry next to a picture of a scowling George Bush. At this point, a news site should be even handed in every way. This is not.

Doing the Debates a Disservice

Because of our 10:00 PM newscast (on a station that wasn’t running the debate to begin with), I only got to watch the first hour of tonight’s presidential debate. I will watch the last half hour later. I have watched all four debates with great interest and continued watching with the post debate discussions.

Who won? What do the polls show?

There might be great answers to those questions – answers that truly reflect the public’s sentiment. But those are the wrong questions… at least at this point.

Maybe I’m being presumptuous, but finding the better debater is not the most valuable thing we can get from this exercise. More important is, who has the policies that reflect your own concerns and values?

It is not Tweedledum versus Tweedledee. President Bush and Senator Kerry have different approaches to many of our most pressing problems.

You would think by now we should have seen enough to make up our minds.

Stop the Spin, I Want To Get Off

I watched the debate. I won’t comment on the content or the candidates. This blog is not the place for that&#185.

It held my attention. I’m glad of that. I am anxious to see how many Americans watched it. There seemed to be a lot of buzz beforehand. I don’t speak to too many people after work at 11:35 PM, so I can’t tell now how many actually did watch.

Whether it changes anyone’s mind or not, what a tribute to our way of life that this free and open exchange takes place.

I was curious to see how the debate was received by others, so when I got home I turned the TV on and read a little on the Internet. I’m no babe in the woods here, but I am astounded by all the spin… and astounded that networks and websites depend on it.

If Sony just announced a new line of TVs, I wouldn’t bring on Sony’s sales manager to tell me how they rate. Isn’t that exactly what is being done on TV and in print? Where is the value in partisan’s slavishly praising their boy?

I’m going to use Robert Novak and Paul Begala as examples. This has nothing to do with who does or doesn’t support the president. I just happened to read Novak’s blog on CNN’s website first.

Novak made comments every few moments as the debate progressed and each and every one of them was critical of Kerry. Again, it’s not what Novak is saying that I object to. The question is, where is the benefit in using commentary from someone so intransigent that he only sees one side of the issue?

Didn’t Kerry do anything right? Did Bush do anything wrong? Not to Novak.

Novak’s counterpart, Paul Begala gave George Bush credit for one small point… and everything else went to Kerry. I suppose his giving Bush any ground is a surprise. Still, Begala could have pretty much written this before the debate began.

Being balanced doesn’t mean having two diametrically opposed pundits face off. Balance means using people with open minds who are willing to make observations based on what actually happened, not preconceived positions.

Sometimes your guy is good. sometimes your guy is bad. Hey, that’s life!

I want to read what’s written from your gut, not your doctrine. We’re talking about the presidency. Isn’t this too important for politics as usual?

&#185 – Earlier this evening, a thoughtful reader of this blog posted a comment with his opinion of the debate. I respectfully removed it. This smacks of censorship, because it is. I think it is incredibly important that this site not contain any partisan politics. That decision, right or wrong, is mine alone to make and I hope the commenter understands.

Going to the Candidates Debate

I am poised for tonight’s presidential debate from Coral Gables. Like hurricane coverage that starts two days before the storm arrives, the TV pundits have run out of valuable things to say.

Here’s my point: Debates can affect elections.

As close as it was, Al Gore’s horrendously stiff show in the last election debates probably cost him the presidency. Remember ‘lock box,’ a phrase he obviously wanted to get in no matter what was asked?

There was Ronald Reagan’s “there you go again” to Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford’s premature freeing of Poland from communist rule, and Richard Nixon’s five o’clock shadow.

Tonight I hope it’s not a gaffe that eliminates one man from the presidency, but a realization by the voters of where they stand vis a vis the other.

I recently watched an entire George Bush campaign stop on ABC World Now. There was no commentary and no cut aways. Bush was masterful. I was extremely impressed at his warm, folksy style. To see it used so effectively was unexpected, to say the least. If he can pull that off in this debate (of course in a campaign appearance he never faces critical commentary or questions from his audience as he will tonight), Kerry might as well start wind surfing tomorrow.

On the other hand, for the first time, Kerry gets seen in context with the president. Will he look presidential, compared to the man who currently defines that role? If he does, that goes a long way to calming some fears.

How will he handle the charge of flip flop? If John Kerry changes that perception, Bush has a much tougher opponent for the next 33 or so days.

Will either candidate attack the other? If so, how will the voters react? It can be looked at as a sign of strength, or the trait of a desperate man, depending on how the attack is wielded.

This will be very interesting to watch. I’ll be glued to my seat.

Dirty Politics

There’s a campaign of negative advertising going on right now. It is aimed at John Kerry and sponsored by an organization which claims to be separate from the Republican Party. That’s what brings what I’m about to say to mind.

Negative advertising works.

I am not passing judgment on Senator Kerry or President Bush or even the Swift Boat Veterans group which is paying for the ads. All that will wash out over time, and it’s my intention to stay non-partisan here.

Negative advertising is the perfect political ploy because it satisfies two objectives. It puts your opponent on the defensive and it keeps him from setting his own agenda. So, a candidate is forced to abandon his strengths to shore up his weakness. Brilliant.

The fact that this is often done by surrogates (and the Democrats have their surrogates too) allows the candidate not being tarred to stay above it all.

Negative ads are used because they work. They change minds. They cause supporters to question their commitment. They sway the undecided.

You can get people to vote against a candidate. Until that changes, mud will continue to be thrown.

Higher Education

I’ve completed 5 semesters at MSU, now in the middle of the 6th, and I’m doing pretty well. Feeling kind of heady.

Some of what I learn is worthless – or sometimes even wrong (a bridge disaster that killed no people was credited with killing 50). Other times there is great insight which is helping me better understand some concepts that were muddy in my mind.

All in all it’s worthwhile.

Maybe just as important, it has shown me I can succeed in higher education. My first trip through college 35 years ago with an unmitigated disaster. And, as this blog proudly proclaims, there is a “Permanent Record.” The SATs I took in December 1967 and my 1.86 GPA from 68-69 are duly noted next to my 5 semesters of A’s.

Over the past few years I have pondered taking more courses, cherry picking subjects that entice me. I wouldn’t go for a degree, but would go for an education… or at least enlightenment.

Yale University, here in New Haven, has a program that seems to fit the bill: The Special Student Program.

Since 1977, the Program for Special Students has offered non-resident students the opportunity to enroll in most Yale College courses for credit. Special Students have used this Program to complete a Bachelor’s degree; to qualify for graduate or professional school; to launch, advance, or change careers; or simply to enrich their personal lives.

The Program for Special Students admits students either for non-degree or for degree enrollment. Yale seeks applicants whose academic background, work experience and community involvement are particularly suited to study at Yale.

All candidates must present evidence of high academic potential, maturity, and clear motivation for their proposed course of study.

I have read about this program and pondered applying for years. Yale is a very intimidating place. Our current president, the last president, and our next president (Kerry or Bush) are all Yalies. There have been others. There will be others in the future. It’s that kind of environment.

Any time I have done a story that touched the Yale student body or faculty, I have come away knowing what a special place it is. Everyone seems driven. Everyone seems challenged. Everyone is so damned smart.

Before applying, I thought it might be the right thing to meet with someone in the admissions office. Is this even a possibility? Today was my day.

It was raining, but I was able to get a space across the street on Hillhouse Avenue. It’s a one way street with mature trees. On either side are buildings that seem like – probably were – mansions.

I stood under my umbrella for a few minutes, looking up and down the block. It was a humbling experience. I wasn’t sure I wanted to go on.

I walked into the office and met with the counselor. She told me we had met before. Her daughter and mine had played basketball together. Years ago, when her daughter said she liked my car, I had taken her for a spin through the parking lot&#185. The interview went well.

There are no guarantees, but I think they’d probably admit me as a non-matriculating special student. That would be fine. Now I have to decide if I want to do it now, or wait until my MSU obligations end, next year at this time.

Will taking meteorology courses, working and having a family make Yale too much? I just don’t know.

It is all so amazing to me. There are courses I want to take. Things I want to learn. And, to have the opportunity to learn them in this environment is much more impressive to this 53 year old than it probably ever would have been when I first went to college – when Yale would have laughed me off campus.

&#185 – Memo to self: be nice to everybody. You never know.

Sitting, Waiting for Thunderstorms

Even a few days ago, today looked like it would be a thunderstorm day. Lots of heat and humidity, a cold front approaching from the northwest, negative lifted index numbers (a very telling severe weather parameter). Movement from the northwest is the ‘favored’ direction for severe weather here in Connecticut.

As I type this, there’s a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect for Litchfield County (far Northwestern Connecticut) and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it expanded later. Even without the watch there will be more thunderstorms late tonight throughout the state.

I’ve got one eye on the radar and the other scanning the watches and warnings popping up from the Weather Service. I’ll have to be more thoughtful than usual tonight in making decisions to break into programming, since we’d be breaking into ceremonies for President Reagan, not a sitcom or reality show. I understand the solemnity in this event.

I hate severe weather, which isolates me from many of my peers. There’s a weather oriented bulletin board I read from time-to-time. I constantly see meteorologists begging for storms (not that we can affect the outcome!

I wish I was in Lincoln…or St. Joseph, or a number of places besides southern MO. MCI forecast sounding for 00z tonight is impressive:

LI of -12, Sweat 681, SREH 319…enough for some nastiness. Normally I’d like to see the LCL a bit lower, but given the instability any negatives should be overcome. FSU…have fun!

Have fun!

Let me translate a little. MCI is Kansas City (in the same way LAX is Los Angeles and JFK is New York). LI is the previously mentioned lifted index. Sweat and SREH are two more severe weather forecast parameters. Most importantly, this guy wants to be there. And, he along with others, root for stronger storms! FSU is a forecaster who graduated from Florida State University.

Am I missing something? Won’t this stuff injure or even kill people? Property and business will be lost. People near the severe weather will be frightened.

News anchors don’t hope for a murder or fire so they can have a more compelling lead (at least I don’t think they do). Why are weather people so different?

No matter how long I work in this field I’ll never understand why some of my contemporaries are hoping for the worst. It’s just weird.

It’s An Addiction – I’m Not Alone

Katie Haffner had an interesting story about blogging in this moring’s New York Times. I always thought (and Helaine will confirm) I’d gone off the deep end with blogging, but this article makes it seem like I’m not so bad. There are others who have been bitten far worse.

Thanks God for small favors.

Continue reading “It’s An Addiction – I’m Not Alone”

A New Word for Me

I just read Senator John McCain’s letter to the president of Sinclair Broadcasting concerning their decision not to air Ted Koppel’s reading of the names of our Iraq War dead.

As is my policy here, I won’t venture an opinion on this war… or even Sinclair’s decision. However, in reading McCain’s statement, I was presented with a word I had never seen before.

It is, in short, sir, unpatriotic. I hope it meets with the public opprobrium it most certainly deserves.

Opprobrium! It’s there to add effect to an already brutally harsh paragraph.

op

A Rare Visit To The Grocery Store

Since I’m in the midst of a diet (doing very well thank you), I thought this would be a great time to join Helaine at the supermarket. Maybe… possibly… in this carb conscious time, there are new foods for me to eat.

Fat chance!

I am a very lucky man. My wife spoils me like crazy. She does virtually all the shopping for me. It is unusual for me to be in the grocery store with or without her. I am probably qualified to get that surprised look President Bush (41) had at a grocery convention years ago, when he saw scanners for the first time.

At times, while Helaine was going back for something she had forgotten and I stood silently and motionless next to the shopping cart, I felt like a lox. I wanted to pull out my cellphone and pretend I was calling my wife for advice, as so many other men there were doing. Being in a supermarket and not being in motion makes you stand out.

I had read, on the South Beach Diet, that brown rice and certain non-flour pastas might be OK. When I looked at their carbohydrate counts, I knew they weren’t for me. In fact, many of the items I looked at had reasonably low carb counts, but only at the expense of portions sized for a flea.

The Klondike Fudge Bars I have taken a liking to weren’t available. Helaine had stocked up – but we’re hoping this is an anomaly, not the sign that they’re gone.

I realized one more very important thing as I watched Chantee tally up the bill. When you eschew bread, pasta and other carbs and replace them with protein, you’re going to pay a lot more for a bag of groceries.

My Presidential Prediction

This blog is non-partisan. I don’t favor one ideology or candidate over another. I work in a newsroom, which is supposed to be balanced and objective. So, even as the weatherman, this seems like a reasonable policy.

On the other hand, I am not blind. I am watching the ‘dance of the candidates’ as the 2004 presidential campaign gets under way – long before either convention. I can’t remember as early a start. With the insatiable appetite of cable TV news, we’ll soon be sick of it all and anxious for November 2nd, so we can just put all the petty sniping behind us.

I’ve been thinking about the candidates and watching poll numbers over the past few days. Who is vulnerable? Why are they vulnerable? Why is Kerry already head and shoulders ahead of the president (though it is so early that poll any numbers are meaningless)?

It won’t be long before President Bush starts looking to work around his negatives. It is my opinion that he will see Vice President Dick Cheney as a liability.

Again, this doesn’t represent my opinion of Vice President Cheney or President Bush. But, I see the vice president’s association with Halliburton as a huge target for the Democrats. They will try and paint Halliburton as representative of everything bad with this Republican administration and use Cheney’s prior association (he was its president) to drive their points home.

Here’s my prediction. When November comes around, the Republican ticket won’t be Bush/Cheney. The Vice President could find any number of reasons, from health on down, to graciously bow out.

There are a number of Republicans with squeaky clean reputations that come to mind… like Colin Powell or Rudolph Guiliani. Either of those two would more benefit the president’s re-election bid.

I mentioned this tonight to a number of people I work with, and most said it sounded reasonable, though not likely. I called my dad in Florida and he said it was an idea he had thought about, and accepted, a few weeks ago.

If it happens, remember today is March 10, 2004. If it doesn’t happen, it was my dad’s idea.

Another Media Prediction

After the Janet/Justin Super Bowl incident, I predicted there would be repercussions at MTV – even though MTV is not regulated by the FCC. It didn’t take long before some of the more explicit videos they play were pushed out of prime time.

Videos are no longer a big thing on MTV, so this move isn’t as significant as it might seem. Still, a change is a change. It is certainly a reaction to an upwelling of public sentiment.

Now, in light of Howard Stern’s banishment by Clear Channel, I predict he’ll soon be gone from Viacom&#185 as well.

Let me preface my explanation by saying I have no political ax to grind. What will be will be. It’s fun to make these predictions in the blog because I really can’t hide from them later. Just remember – this is only my read on the situation.

Here’s the set-up. Tuesday, Howard Stern had the ‘other’ participant in the now infamous Paris Hilton video, on-the-air. They talked, and took some phone calls. One listener asked some questions which were crude and racist, to say the least.

Wednesday evening, Matt Drudge had a short transcript of the conversation on his website. I’m glad I got to read it. I’m just as glad it’s no longer there.

I would hope Stern has the ability to monitor and censor inappropriate material before it hits air. In this case, he did not.

On Wednesday, after hearing an aircheck, Clear Channel Communications took action and issued this press release:

“Clear Channel drew a line in the sand today with regard to protecting our listeners from indecent content and Howard Stern’s show blew right through it,” said John Hogan, president and CEO of Clear Channel Radio. “It was vulgar, offensive, and insulting, not just to women and African Americans but to anyone with a sense of common decency. We will not air Howard Stern on Clear Channel stations until we are assured that his show will conform to acceptable standards of responsible broadcasting,” Hogan said.

Though America’s largest broadcasting company, Clear Channel only runs Stern on a handful of stations. Viacom is the actual syndicator of the show, and also runs it in many markets nationwide.

In this case, the tail (Clear Channel) will wag the dog (Viacom)!

Viacom is between a rock and a hard place because of statements earlier in the week. From Reuters:

Viacom president Mel Karmazin reportedly has imposed a crackdown on sexually explicit material on Infinity stations, declaring in a recent company-wide conference call: “This company won’t be a poster child for indecency.”

So, what can they do? Considering the Congressional hearings post-Super Bowl and Karmazin’s own public pledge, how can they stand behind Stern… especially in light of what Clear Channel’s CEO said?

They can’t. End of story. Hang out the “Help Wanted” sign. Stern is done.

&#185 – Stern is syndicated by Infinity Broadcasting. Infinity, in turn, is owned by Viacom.

Crunch Time for School

Our 20th wedding anniversary is coming up tomorrow, so I am rushing to finish my school assignments so the day can be free and dedicated to celebrating.

It’s funny, but in the beginning of the school year, Severe Weather was the tough course. Now, it’s Statistical Climatology.

Tonight, doing some homework necessary for a quarterly test, I worked for a half hour on a problem only to realize the data was split between two pages, so I had left half of it out. This problem had dozens of individual little steps. And, after a point, everything became dependent on what you had previously calculated.

When I realized how long it would take to redo everything, I went a little crazy. If only I knew how to do it on a spreadsheet!

I tried getting my friend Bob on Instant Messenger. He’s Mr. Meteorology (actually Dr. Meteorology) and a math wiz. Nothing. So, a quick call to Paul in California who has used spreadsheets for years to do budgets… but never stat work and never using any functions other than add, subtract, multiply and divide. I needed to do square roots and other obscure functions.

As I was hearing about Paul’s limitations, Bob answered the IM call. I hung up on Paul and phoned Bob. In two minutes I had accomplished as much as I had before I discovered my error earlier!

I don’t want to sound like George HW Bush at that Grocery Convention a few years back&#185, but I have no experience with spreadsheets. They were, after all, the first ‘killer app’ for computers – beginning with Visicalc. I should have a working knowledge.

It is astounding what I was able to do, accurately, and in very short order. And, to do the simple stuff was fairly easy. I should be able to go back without trouble.

I am using the spreadsheet built into OpenOffice.org, which is a Microsoft Office look alike/work alike… and it’s FREE! I would like OpenOffice.org more if it was supported by books. There are dozens of books on Microsoft Office but hardly anything to buy on OpenOffice.org.

With the homework now finished, tomorrow I can take my tests (actually, later today).

&#185Today, for instance, [Bush] emerged from 11 years in Washington’s choicest executive mansions to confront the modern supermarket.

Visiting the exhibition hall of the National Grocers Association convention here, Mr. Bush lingered at the mock-up of a checkout lane. He signed his name on an electronic pad used to detect check forgeries.

“If some guy came in and spelled George Bush differently, could you catch it?” the President asked. “Yes,” he was told, and he shook his head in wonder.

Then he grabbed a quart of milk, a light bulb and a bag of candy and ran them over an electronic scanner. The look of wonder flickered across his face again as he saw the item and price registered on the cash register screen.

“This is for checking out?” asked Mr. Bush. “I just took a tour through the exhibits here,” he told the grocers later. “Amazed by some of the technology.”

Marlin Fitzwater, the White House spokesman, assured reporters that he had seen the President in a grocery store. A year or so ago. In Kennebunkport.

Some grocery stores began using electronic scanners as early as 1976, and the devices have been in general use in American supermarkets for a decade.

From The New York Times

Kennedy Assassination As a Universal Experience

I remember, with vivid clarity, the moment I found out about John Kennedy’s assassination. I am not alone. It has been said that no one who lived through November 22, 1963 will ever forget where they were, what they were doing, when they found out.

For me, it was a sunny, late fall day, in Mr. Friend’s classroom on the back side of the first floor at Harold G. Campbell Junior High school. In New York City school names are ceremonial, at best. It was JHS 218 or JHS 218Q (for Queens).

Mr. Friend was told first and he relayed to the class that Kennedy had been shot. That’s all we knew. I can’t speak for the class, but I can tell you that whatever I thought at that moment, I wasn’t grasping the significance of the moment or that anything more could happen.

It was a time when TV news was much less crime and picture oriented. The grit and grime of violence may have been played out every day in the Daily News or Mirror (in 1963 the New York Post was a liberal newspaper which tended to play toward organized labor and its causes, not crime and debauchery)… but I read The Long Island Press, published in Jamaica, Queens. Violence outside of war didn’t exist as far as I was concerned.

November 22, 1963 was the day newspapers lost their position as ‘news of record’ for most Americans to television.

The windows from our classroom faced east, across open space and toward Queens College. Within a few minutes, someone in the class noticed a flag at Queens College being lowered to half staff. That’s when it hit me.

We were dismissed early and I began to walk home. I know I was with friends… maybe Dennis Westler, possibly Marty Ingber. I’m not really sure but I know I wasn’t alone. We discussed the fact that the president was dead and Lyndon Johnson, the vice president, had suffered a heart attack. I know now that was wrong – I didn’t then. We speculated what would happen. I was 13.

Still, we were discussing facts and the emotion had still not hit me. We were cavalier.

As I came home and turned on the TV, I realized this was major. All regular programming was gone. News, in a somber manner, was on all channels. Slowly, from the adults around me, I began to become aware of the gravity of the situation. We all sat, glued to the television.

Though I was born during the Truman administration and remember Eisenhower in a sketchy sort of way, Kennedy was the first president that I really knew. My parents were good Democrats in a lower middle class area of trade unionists who were also Democrats. The huge apartment complex we lived in, made up of dozens of three and six story buildings, was financed and built by the Electrical Workers Union Local 3 and called Electchester. Our friend Morris Scott, on the first floor of our six story 72 unit building, was a Transport Workers Union and Democratic functionary. He was not an exception in Electchester. The two went together.

During the campaign for the 1960 presidential election, Kennedy spoke at a campaign rally at Parsons Boulevard and Jewel Avenue, a block from our apartment. I found the photo on the left at an NYU site – amazing it’s preserved on the net. The facade of the building behind Kennedy is from the Pomonok Housing Project, which was across the street from us. The camera is shooting from the SE to the NW, across the intersection. My memory is of a huge crowd, but I was 10 at the time. This busy intersection was closed and a wooden platform was built.

Richard Nixon had nothing to gain by coming to my neighborhood. He was everything we weren’t, Kennedy was like us, though nothing could be further from the truth.

Anything I thought or felt about Kennedy during the campaign was based on those things that affect a ten year old; my parents, grandparents and the folks we lived around. I knew nothing about his policies, politics, social standing or any of the things we know today… and there’s no doubt we know a hell of a lot more today.

In my sphere of influence, Kennedy was like a god. I know that sounds foolish or naive now, but that’s the truth. To me, he was much larger than life. And he was the first adult I knew of to die tragically.

I had tickets to see a Broadway show on the Saturday following the assassination. It was probably my first Broadway show. Like the NFL schedule the next day, Broadway went on. In hindsight, both football and theater performances were bad ideas. Even so, with a bunch of my classmates and Mr. Friend, we boarded the bus for Flushing and the IRT subway (actually it was mostly above ground) to Times Square to see “Enter Laughing.”

I now know, this show was an autobiographical sketch from Carl Reiner. Then, who knew who Carl Reiner was? I remember it being funny in an irreverent sort of way, but the day being gray and gloomy in every other sense.

Sunday morning we sat home in our tiny apartment, 5E. I lived in an apartment with only a northern exposure. At no time in the 16 years I lived in this apartment… and decades longer my parents lived there, did we ever see the sun!

The TV in the living room, our only TV, was tuned to CBS. Along with millions of others, I watched Lee Harvey Oswald being shot, live. Being live, coast-to-coast, from that Dallas Police Department Garage was quite a technical achievement 40 years ago. Today, we see the videotape replay as grainy, dated black and white. Back then, it was live and vivid. Grainy black and white was the norm.

I was stunned. We were all stunned. How was this humanly possible? Today’s metal detecting, secure area-ed society was light years away. I had never seen a pistol, but in Texas, they were much more the norm.

Monday was the funeral. I think my dad was home, which was not a scheduled day off from work. Certainly every school was closed and my guess is most businesses too. By this time we had a common grief and stunned disbelief in what had happened. If it is possible, I remember being a 13 year old who was depressed.

The country stopped for the funeral. It struck me then, as it does now, that there are people who actually know how to plan an event like this with the proper protocol and deference to tradition. What a morbid field of expertise.

It was an awful, rainy day in Queens on that Monday. The funeral was long and sad and more than anything else I remember the riderless horse, the muffled drums and the crying. We’ve all seen the photo of John Jr. saluting. I believe that was only seen by still photographers. I don’t think we saw that live.

People think it was live because it’s been published and seen so many times. A similar situation is the film of Apollo 11 landing on the Moon, with dust flying and the shadow of the lander on the surface. That too was never seen live on TV, though we did hear the voices of the astronauts and Mission Control.

Five or six years after the funeral I was marching down those same Washington streets, protesting the war in Vietnam. In 1963 there was no thought that you might protest what your government was doing. But after JFK’s assassination, everything changed.

Lyndon Johnson became the president and used the Kennedy aura to pass Civil Rights legislation that began to bring this country out some draconian policies that survived even the Civil War. Johnson also inherited Kennedy’s involvement in Vietnam, which would be his undoing as a president. The war accelerated, halfway around the world.

Before Kennedy’s assassination we were innocent and invulnerable. World War II had taken place without any conflict reaching America’s shores. Korea too was fought far away. The strength of our military, combined with the breadth of the ocean, protected us from harm. But now we found that harm could come from within and that nothing would ever be safe again.

A generation only knows about the assassination through Oliver Stone’s movie. Shame on him. Shame on them. Stone’s powerful use of the medium told America a lie, packaged as the truth.

Forty years ago. I remember it like it was yesterday.

(This entry originally posted November 22, 2003)