I’m Waiting For The Models… No… Not That Way!

It’s not that the forecasting isn’t good–it needs to be great. Mistakes have a huge downside

It’s twenty of two. I’m on the sofa in the family room. I have hit the refresh button a half dozen times. I am waiting for the HWRF.

The HWRFTM is a high resolution coupled air-sea-land prediction model with a movable nested grid and advanced physics for high resolution

Like you didn’t already know!

This is a fairly recent model. It’s made especially for hurricanes. Hurricanes need an extremely fine mesh or high resolution because so much is going on in a small space!

Most computer guidance is optimized for larger scale events like the type of fall-through-spring storms we get in Connecticut.

Forecasting has really improved in my 28 years in weather. I wish I was better at it. Mistakes are never fun.

It’s not that the forecasting isn’t good–it needs to be great. Mistakes have a huge downside. Both over and underforecasting have costly consequences.

It’s in.

A quick peek shows it still west of the official forecast. I lean west too.

Interesting. Bothersome. Inconveniencing. Not tragic.

2 thoughts on “I’m Waiting For The Models… No… Not That Way!”

  1. Looking for info on winds and wave heights for Thursday a.m. leaving Branford, going to Block Island. Any info would be helpful.
    We will be going by boat and won’t go if waves and winds are too strong.

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