Mention Snow, People Go Nuts!

Doppler Versus SnowA few folks wrote to me because one of yesterday’s runs of the GFS computer model predicted snow over Connecticut for midweek next week. Mention snow and people go nuts!

Get a grip. Forecast models project that far out because they can, not because they’re good at it!

As it turns out, this morning’s GFS says, “Snow? What snow?.”

When I look at the models, especially when I see something unusual, I try and remember there’s a reason some events seldom happen–like Connecticut snow before Halloween. Climatology enters into the mix.

Of course unusual things (Halloween snow, Hurricane Sandy) do happen. Unfortunately the computer guidance promises a lot more often than it delivers.

There’s a joke among meteorologists about one overpredicting weather company that’s forecast a hundred of the last ten inches of snow!

Even here in SoCal I’ve got to be careful about the unusual happening. There was a story in this morning’s Irvine World News about the two inches of snow that fell here in 1949! It was also noted in an earlier Coast Magazine article.

Operations at Marine Air Station El Toro¹ stopped. No equipment to deal with winter!

There probably won’t be snow in Connecticut next week, nor snow here in Irvine this winter. Probably, not definitely.

¹ – El Toro was closed in 1999. It’s now the Orange County Great Park, under a mile from my house.

3 Responses to “Mention Snow, People Go Nuts!”

  1. Carole says:

    Irvine World News is correct about the snow fall in LA back 1949. That was the last time it snowed in Los Angeles. I remember, I was there. All the kids were out throwing snowballs. Geoff a lot of the stuff you post here, brings back a lot of old memories of years gone by. Just wait until New Years Day when the floats, bands & horses go marching down Colorado Blvd in the Rose Parade. That is an event that is beautiful. I am looking forward to the day I can return to CA. I have never liked living in CT. Once a California girl, always a California girl.

  2. Jennifer says:

    Geoff, If you tell me that Halloween is going to be sucky or all out cancelled for the 3rd year in a row, I will be totally pissed. CT is sick of October snow. :) I hope you took the snow with you. I bet Southern CA would LOVE snow.

    I am a California girl (29 years in CA, 3 years in CT) but I think I might be a CT girl. Not totally sure about that though.

    • Carole says:

      Jennifer, I spent most of my life in So. California. I had never seen snow at my front door. I acted just like a kid, wanting to out and throw snowballs. Come March of the following year, I thought to myself, why did I move here. Snow is suppose to be in the mountain, not at your front door. Even after living here, I am still afraid to drive any where if there is snow on the ground. I freeze every weather. Looking forward to the day I return to California where I don’t have to bundle up to go outdoors.

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