Before I went to bed, I wanted to get a look at the 06Z¹ computer models. The Weather Service now produces the computer guidance I see up to 4 times a day… more chances for agita.
Actually, the accuracy of these models is so much better than what I first used, 20 some odd years ago. Looking back, it’s a wonder I’m still sane!
Still, I’m never 100% accurate.
Earlier this evening, I was overly aggressive in my forecast. I called for 12-24″², inland, less on the shoreline, which seemed reasonable… but everything had to fall in line for that to come true and that’s just too much to expect.
By 10:00, with a quick look at the 0Z eta and parts of the 0Z GFS (yes – eta is lower case, GFS is upper), I realized the storm would be leaving sooner and lowered my numbers. Now it was 10-15″ inland and 6-12″ on the coast. That’s still significant, but significantly less. Either way, it will fall faster than the plows can handle.
There’s no doubt the forecast will change again. No snow forecast is ever 100% accurate. Hopefully, I’ve been close and all it will need is a little tweaking as newer, fresher, hopefully more insightful data comes in.
Spring cannot come soon enough for me.
¹ – All weather data is synchronized to UTC (Universal Coordinated Time), aka GMT (Greenwhich Mean Time), aka “Z” time. It is 5 hours ahead of Eastern Standard Time
² – On my first broadcast at 5:00 PM, bad data from a graphic I made and thought I replaced, made air. It called for 15-30″. I made the mistake of not saying it was a mistake, but that I was considering lowering it. I should have said exactly what happened. It was foolish on my part. I know some people saw that number and will remember it even though I ‘revised’ it a few minutes later. This is my responsibility totally.