Now The Real Worrying Begins

It is around 1:00 AM as I begin typing this entry. Skies are clear. The temperature is approaching 0&#186.

Did I mention the sky was clear? I’m expecting snow in 12-13 hours.

I wrote yesterday about the downside of a bad forecast. Now the stakes are higher. I forecast a monumental snowstorm – more than we’ve had in years.

When the numbers are this large, the public is sensitized to what’s going on. By now everyone knows what’s suppose to come tomorrow… and who said it would.

The computer guidance (which doesn’t have to go face-to-face with the public at the grocery store) continues to be consistent in forecast track, intensity and precipitation accumulation. It’s almost too easy. That’s part of the fear factor.

On the air, there was a brief pause when I said, “15-30 inches on the shoreline.” That large a number scares many people. It sure scares me.

Though tomorrow is normally my day off, I will spend it at the TV station staring at charts, maps and numbers. There will come a time, probably around 9:00 PM, when I’ll answer the question: right or wrong?

It will be a moment of elation or dejection. There is no middle ground.

It’s the difference between hitting the game winning home run or being the pitcher who served it up.

2 thoughts on “Now The Real Worrying Begins”

  1. Well, looking at the AVN, ETA, and NGM models really quickly; they’re identical like you’ve said. All surface models are pretty much like looking at the same picture with different colors. Looking at the 300mb map, i dont see how a storm could not develop in the “under belly” of the jet stream off of North Carolina. Strong winds aloft will definately make the storm develop fast and rapidly. I dont think Connecticut has a seen a true blizzard since 1996. To say the truth i hope Connecticut gets a good ole fashioned Nor’ Easter. It’s the weekend anyways… Just make sure you got a generator and some firewood. Dont worry Geoff, you got this in the bag. Even if the shore doesnt see 30 inches they will definately see 15. You will be right either way.

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