So, how was your day? I began by making a forecast then around 7:00 PM upping it! This looks like a really large storm… unfortunately.
The 00Z NAM has arrived (not totally complete, but at least through the storm hours). It’s interesting in that it starts the accumulations in the evening, not afternoon. Not sure I can buy that. I’m sticking with afternoon.
This model also brings around an inch of liquid equivalent to the Connecticut shoreline. Each storm is different, but my rule-of-thumb calculations favor ~15:1 snow-to-rain this time. That’s about 15″ of snow for the math challenged.
Storms seldom live up to these massive forecasts. There are so many things that can change and nearly each of them will mean less snow. Still, 8-15″ on the shore (which is what I’ll say) seems reasonable right now. I’ll go for 5-10″ for most inland sections.
Back to that 15:1 for a second. That also means powdery/fluffy snow. With strong winds overnight Saturday/Sunday drifting seems likely. That’s about as unusual in Connecticut as 15″ accumulations, but again reasonable this time all things considered.
My friend Bob in Florida just IM’ed Roanoke, VA has been getting 3″ of snow per hour! That’s way more than plows can handle. Too much to keep up with here is reasonable too.
I’ll check back in later tonight. Writing about these storms is helpful to forecasting them. There will be more data to absorb.