The Colorado State hurricane forecasters have issued their annual tropical weather call.
We continue to foresee above-average activity for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. We have increased our seasonal forecast from the mid-point of our initial early December prediction due to a combination of anomalous warming of Atlantic tropical sea surface temperatures and a more confident view that the current El Niño will weaken. We anticipate an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.
Unless you are an insurance underwriter or maybe someone selling building supplies hurricanes are anecdotal events. Individual places see hurricanes so infrequently that the difference between it being a 1% or 1.4% chance is meaningless. It’s like considering the odds you’ll get a straight flush every time you’re dealt a poker hand. It can happen, but it mostly won’t.
Even when judged by a broader view these studious projections have shown less than stellar accuracy lately. The same goes with forecasts from ‘for-hire’ forecasters. That’s not to say I still don’t worry about a hurricane hitting the Northeast as happened tragically in 1938. I do. I worry a lot.
In spite of the axiom, lightning and hurricanes often strike twice.