The Hurricane Forecast Arrives

That’s not to say I still don’t worry about a hurricane hitting the Northeast as happened tragically in 1938. I do. I worry a lot.

The Colorado State hurricane forecasters have issued their annual tropical weather call.

We continue to foresee above-average activity for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. We have increased our seasonal forecast from the mid-point of our initial early December prediction due to a combination of anomalous warming of Atlantic tropical sea surface temperatures and a more confident view that the current El NiƱo will weaken. We anticipate an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.

What does this mean? Virtually nothing… and I’m not even going to take the cheap shot of mentioning this hurricane forecast comes from the very non-tropical and landlocked state of Colorado!

Unless you are an insurance underwriter or maybe someone selling building supplies hurricanes are anecdotal events. Individual places see hurricanes so infrequently that the difference between it being a 1% or 1.4% chance is meaningless. It’s like considering the odds you’ll get a straight flush every time you’re dealt a poker hand. It can happen, but it mostly won’t.

Even when judged by a broader view these studious projections have shown less than stellar accuracy lately. The same goes with forecasts from ‘for-hire’ forecasters. That’s not to say I still don’t worry about a hurricane hitting the Northeast as happened tragically in 1938. I do. I worry a lot.

In spite of the axiom, lightning and hurricanes often strike twice.

2 thoughts on “The Hurricane Forecast Arrives”

  1. Even though we haven’t been touched full on by a hurricane in some time (knocking on wood) we still make sure at the beginning of hurricane season to stock up on batteries, water and other necessities. My paternal grandmother died during the 1938 Hurricane when it hit Rhode Island so it’s been drummed into our heads since birth never to underestimate and always be prepared.

  2. Geoff,
    I am of the mindset that while it’s good to know the possibilities and try to plan for them, if it comes, it comes. You can’t divert Mother Nature!
    Thanks for your commentary on this. I too would prefer to avoid a CT hurricane.

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