You’ll be glad to know most of the dependable guidance continues to show Hurricane Earl south of Long Island then out-to-sea. Some of the models are more westerly than others, but for most we get a rotten day with some limbs/power down and enough rain to gum things up.
This time before a storm I get emails and other messages asking if the author can do something on a given day. I don’t answer those. I don’t want someone to get into an accident and then, whether my fault or not, say “I was unsure, so I asked Geoff if I could go.”
The answer is always “No!” You cannot.
He’s not requesting advice. He’s asking permission!Not granted.
I have worked hard to allay fears, to reassure the viewers. Now that scenario better come true. Being wrong here would be pretty awful for all concerned!
I’ll be sweating all the models and anything else I can get my hands on. Now that Earl is closer there will be shorter term models available. More confusion!
So far the track has stayed reasonably in line. This would seem a logical path based on past storms.
Most likely Friday on TV you’ll have a good view as Earl slides by. He should be within radar range. We’ll have hi-res imagery to show. If you enjoy this sort of thing you”ll have fun, but from afar.
I have been forecasting in Connecticut over 26 years. The pressure to find the correct forecast answer has never seemed greater.