Hurricane Earl: The Sweating Begins

The sweating begins.

You’ll be glad to know most of the dependable guidance continues to show Hurricane Earl south of Long Island then out-to-sea. Some of the models are more westerly than others, but for most we get a rotten day with some limbs/power down and enough rain to gum things up.

This time before a storm I get emails and other messages asking if the author can do something on a given day. I don’t answer those. I don’t want someone to get into an accident and then, whether my fault or not, say “I was unsure, so I asked Geoff if I could go.”

The answer is always “No!” You cannot.

He’s not requesting advice. He’s asking permission!Not granted.


I have worked hard to allay fears, to reassure the viewers. Now that scenario better come true. Being wrong here would be pretty awful for all concerned!

I’ll be sweating all the models and anything else I can get my hands on. Now that Earl is closer there will be shorter term models available. More confusion!

So far the track has stayed reasonably in line. This would seem a logical path based on past storms.

Most likely Friday on TV you’ll have a good view as Earl slides by. He should be within radar range. We’ll have hi-res imagery to show. If you enjoy this sort of thing you”ll have fun, but from afar.

I have been forecasting in Connecticut over 26 years. The pressure to find the correct forecast answer has never seemed greater.

4 thoughts on “Hurricane Earl: The Sweating Begins”

  1. Geoff,

    Have you looked at the latest NOGAPS/UKMET? These certainly could be outliers, but it definitely makes this look a little more interesting than the stuff coming out of the NHC.

  2. I don’t trust the NHC so far. The storm has not obeyed the models and the lastest projection has the storm moving northeast then north again, unlike Danielle. I’m thinking Cape Cod is going to have it rougher than what’s being mentioned. If it picks up forward speed that could complicate everything. The image you posted several posts ago proves the innaccuracy of almost every model. Every time the storm was west of the predicted model. Won’t make a final call but even Thursday night might not be accurate enough. Connecticut should be fine but Providence and east should not trust anything at this point. It’s that close.

  3. Hi Geoff –

    I have big plans on Friday to sail my 14 foot catamaran from Branford to Long Island and back. Can I do that?


    I’d love to hear some of the zany messages you must get when bad weather is pending.

  4. Quite sad how people ask you permission to do something in bad weather. Sounds as though they just want to blame you if things go wrong. Makes you feel any better, I one to use common sense, I promise not to go kite flying in the middle of a massive storm 🙂 (or do anything else really stupid in bad weather either). I know to take the power of nature very seriously

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