Irene: Why Can’t The Models Agree?

Worst case scenario means any change in this forecast is a change for the better (for us at least)!

Under most circumstances the variance between our computer models would be a matter of curiosity. They never totally agree. Alas, with a hurricane disagreement is unacceptable. Twenty miles east or west will make a huge difference.

The 18Z GFS is now fully in. It’s the medium range model I tend to favor. It’s not optimized for tropical systems, but it has some chops.

The GFS lines up closely with the Hurricane Center’s forecast. Both are a worst case scenario for Connecticut. Nearly the entire state ends up on the windier side of the storm with an extended period of onshore wind blowing water inland at this month’s highest tide!

Worst case scenario means any change in this forecast is a change for the better (for us at least)! The ECMWF, farther west, would be gentler for us more while creaming Philly and New York City.

The map attached is the 18Z GFS QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast) through Monday. Most of Connecticut is in the 8″ isohyet. Your actual mileage may vary. More rain… soggier roots… more trees down.

Nothing in the timing has changed. Showers… actually the outer rain bands from Irene… on Saturday then windblown squalls Sunday with the strongest winds Sunday afternoon through late night.

More later.

15 thoughts on “Irene: Why Can’t The Models Agree?”

  1. GFDL and Euro are still West! We can certainly cross our fingers. Keep in mind that the Hurricane Center’s cone of uncertainty is created in such a way that, historically speaking, the truth lies within the cone only 60-70% of the time.

    It seems like a GFDL/ECMWF vs. HWRF/GFS battle. Experience tells us that ECMWF tends to be better than GFS, but that could just be the wishful thinker in my going wild…

  2. Although I may listen to other forecasts about the hurricane, yours is the one I trust! Thank you for keeping us informed!!

  3. Geoff, thanks for the great up dates. I no longer live in CT. but the kids do. I worry a lot so your post are just what I need when I call the kids. All I have to say is: “Geoff Fox said” get their attention. thanks again from Tennessee

  4. I am so glad you are back on tv. I hope we don’t get hit they
    kids will go back to school and already need a day off, here we
    go again. Your energy comes through the tv.

  5. I have to second that Lisa….So nice to have you back where you belong Geoff!! Thanks for keeping us updated….will be watching Fox later for the latest!

  6. think it’s a bummer in CT? My brother has a house near Havelock NC. Mother Nature doesn’t fool around. My best wishes to all in getting through this one.

  7. Hey Geoff, My husband & I are in the middle of a major construction project – rebuilding a 60 year old family cottage in Misquamicut, R.I. (Right on the beach.) What can we expect from Irene at that location? Between worrying about the oak trees surrounding our home in Ct. falling on the house & worrying about the waves at the beach (falling on the house), my stress level is pretty high.

    1. An isohyet or isohyetal line (from ύετος or huetos, meaning ‘rain’) is a line joining points of equal precipitation

  8. Geoff, will Fox 61 be simulcasting on the radio? I can’t get you on my battery-operated TV here in Meriden. Please let us know where we can tune in.

  9. I’m hoping this storm heads more west, than east, i guess we won’t know, until late saturaday night. I;m prepared to weather this storm,my nearest shelter is too far to walk and i know CT transit will shut down all bus service. I pray that everyone stays safe AND dry!

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