Under most circumstances the variance between our computer models would be a matter of curiosity. They never totally agree. Alas, with a hurricane disagreement is unacceptable. Twenty miles east or west will make a huge difference.
The 18Z GFS is now fully in. It’s the medium range model I tend to favor. It’s not optimized for tropical systems, but it has some chops.
The GFS lines up closely with the Hurricane Center’s forecast. Both are a worst case scenario for Connecticut. Nearly the entire state ends up on the windier side of the storm with an extended period of onshore wind blowing water inland at this month’s highest tide!
Worst case scenario means any change in this forecast is a change for the better (for us at least)! The ECMWF, farther west, would be gentler for us more while creaming Philly and New York City.
The map attached is the 18Z GFS QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast) through Monday. Most of Connecticut is in the 8″ isohyet. Your actual mileage may vary. More rain… soggier roots… more trees down.
Nothing in the timing has changed. Showers… actually the outer rain bands from Irene… on Saturday then windblown squalls Sunday with the strongest winds Sunday afternoon through late night.