There was a teeny bit of snow Thursday. Hardly enough to care about.
SXUS71 KBOX 280534
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
0129 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011
…RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT BOSTON MA…
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF A TRACE WAS SET AT BOSTON MA YESTERDAY. THIS
TIES THE OLD RECORD OF TRACE SET IN 1957.
All it took was a trace to set the record in Boston. That’s because October snow is rare! I can’t forecast this weekend’s weather without keeping that fact in mind. There are climatological reasons it’s tough to snow in October.
That being said the computer guidance does paint a very unusual October picture.
What was Hurricane Rina is headed our way. Rina has lost most of her wind and will lose all of her tropical characteristics before arriving. However, Rina’s packing moisture.
Cold high pressure over New England will back off enough to allow entry and provide the cold air necessary for snow.
The solution I most favor at the moment is the GFS model. It starts us off with rain then moves the rain/snow line down from the northwest. That gives Northwestern Connecticut a longer period of snow, hence more snow. It also keeps a sloppy mix going for an extended period on the shoreline. That will hold down accumulations there.
For Hartford the changeover happens early afternoon. Farther south and east the change happens later, north and west earlier.
How much of this storm will melt on contact? Looking back on older blog entries it’s a question I ask all the time. If it doesn’t rain first not much. With rain before snow it might take a few hours before the sticking begins.
Most likely we’ll end up with 7-14″ in the NW Hills, 4-8″ in Hartford, Middletown, Waterbury and the UCONN campus. It’s possible the shoreline will get no accumulation, but I’m more inclined to forecast a few slushy inches. Areas near I-395 will have a blend between the inland cities and shoreline slop.
Whatever falls will be heavier inch-for-inch than a typical storm. The snow to water ratio will be low. It’s the kind of snow that’s good for snowballs and extra slippery for drivers!
There’s one more element of this storm which is worrisome. Sustained 20-30 mph northeasterly wind with higher gusts is likely. If this wet snow clings to trees and leaves we’ll have enough wind to bring down limbs and power lines.
Saturday is supposed to be my Sunday, but I’ll be working at FoxCT. We’ll have a double strength staff of meteorologists on all weekend. The boss is even re-shuffling commercials to allow for extra airtime.
Even with all the computer guidance and ground based plus radar observations I’ll be leaning on viewers (like you) for help. If you’re on Twitter keep and eye out for @WeatherCT. We’ll be asking for your observations from time-to-time.
It’s storms like this which cause me the most angst.