The latest run of the GFS has started to come around toward the European’s solution for Hurricane Sandy. They’re still far apart–not as far. And now the GFS puts Connecticut in the bullseye!
We’re close enough and there’s now enough agreement to assume this threat is real for us in Southern New England.
Can the storm still miss us? Sure, though that’s less likely now. It would be foolish to plan based on that assumption.
The GFS is particularly nasty bringing the storm south of Long Island then turning it east where it slows it to a crawl before heading north. We will have a sustained period of strong winds, possibly tropical storm force and certainly tropical storm or even hurricane force gusts.
There will also be a sustained period pre-storm where the wind will have an easterly component. As with Irene, these winds will have the effect of driving water into Long Island Sound, raising the water level even before storm induced waves are added. Coastal flooding is likely.
To make matters worse, all of this is happening near the full moon when tides are normally higher (and lower) than normal.
No two storms are alike. Even with comparable winds we will certainly find damage in some places that escaped Irene while some areas battered in 2011 will be spared.
The first impacts will be felt Sunday, but mostly as a nasty day–overcast, chilly, breezy and some brief showers. By Monday the wind picks up as does the rain. The strongest wind and rain hit on Tuesday.
Hurricane Sandy, probably not a hurricane at landfall, has the potential to be worse than Irene!
The trees have already lost a lot of leaves, which will stand in our favor. There’s not much else ‘good’ I can tell you.
Now is the time to begin your preparations. What can you use before it spoils? What didn’t you have for Irene or the Halloween snowstorm of 2011?
It’s still difficult to be totally specific and I assume some of what I write today will be proven wrong.
I usually try not to scare you about weather. Today I will. It is warranted.
Be smart. Be prepared. Start now.