The latest run of the GFS has started to come around toward the European’s solution for Hurricane Sandy. They’re still far apart–not as far. And now the GFS puts Connecticut in the bullseye!
We’re close enough and there’s now enough agreement to assume this threat is real for us in Southern New England.
Can the storm still miss us? Sure, though that’s less likely now. It would be foolish to plan based on that assumption.
The GFS is particularly nasty bringing the storm south of Long Island then turning it east where it slows it to a crawl before heading north. We will have a sustained period of strong winds, possibly tropical storm force and certainly tropical storm or even hurricane force gusts.
There will also be a sustained period pre-storm where the wind will have an easterly component. As with Irene, these winds will have the effect of driving water into Long Island Sound, raising the water level even before storm induced waves are added. Coastal flooding is likely.
To make matters worse, all of this is happening near the full moon when tides are normally higher (and lower) than normal.
No two storms are alike. Even with comparable winds we will certainly find damage in some places that escaped Irene while some areas battered in 2011 will be spared.
The first impacts will be felt Sunday, but mostly as a nasty day–overcast, chilly, breezy and some brief showers. By Monday the wind picks up as does the rain. The strongest wind and rain hit on Tuesday.
Hurricane Sandy, probably not a hurricane at landfall, has the potential to be worse than Irene!
The trees have already lost a lot of leaves, which will stand in our favor. There’s not much else ‘good’ I can tell you.
Now is the time to begin your preparations. What can you use before it spoils? What didn’t you have for Irene or the Halloween snowstorm of 2011?
It’s still difficult to be totally specific and I assume some of what I write today will be proven wrong.
I usually try not to scare you about weather. Today I will. It is warranted.
Be smart. Be prepared. Start now.
15 thoughts on “Sandy: Not Good News”
Good post Geoff! Appreciate you keeping it real.
How come the gfs is being favored over the euro which takes it further south?
The public is best served at this time by preparing for the worst case.
Totally agree which the list for the store tomorrow…includes many hurricane supplies.
Geoff, hope you know how much we appreciate your posts. It’s nice to not to have to listen or “freak out” unnecessarily from the other stations etc. You give us good info and its just so comforting to be able to check in with you. So glad we have you in our lives!! Thanks!! 😀
Thanks, dear. You are the BEST! Be safe! (I really just wish you’d be WRONG! Ha!Ha!)
And just on the anniversary of LAST years storm. Oy. Didn’t we say last year that was the ‘storm of the Century’? A century ain’t as long as it used to be I guess.
Thanks for the warning. I’ll start getting ready.
batteries, check, fuel for generator, check, fuel in vehicle, check, gutters unclogged, check, storm door in, screen out, check, generator fueled up and ready, check, food for animals, check, chainsaw blade, check, anything that can fly in high winds stored, check. Wishing I was in Phoenix now…..eh..maybe.
793tango, Agree! 🙂
Thanks, Jeff. I came here for your take. A lot of people on TV are too alarmist.
Geoff: As the weather gets worse, more and more people are coming here to your site. The number has been rising since yesterday. Guess that says it all.
Thanks Jeff and I agree with everyone’s comments except that they must not have understood your last couple of sentences about scaring us and it being warranted with this storm.
Working a 24 at the FD on Sunday, Lets hope this one misses us!!
Geoff: Back to OTA forecasting just in time! Hope your physical repairs hold up to a week of round-the-clock weather (as long as channel 61 allows you to be on this time!)… I lost some shingles off of my garage roof during Irene last year. Will I even HAVE rooftops left after Sandy or Hybrid-Sandy or Perfect Storm II gets done with us??? My family members are laughing at me… not taking me seriously. I ALWAYS take this tropical threat stuff EXTREMELY seiously. Darn that NAO….. 🙁
Will be watching this one carefully and checking in with you. Extraordinary confluence on systems projected to collide. Shows us how little we truly know about weather…only time will tell.
Definitely will take this one seriously…difficult to see how CT will not feel some effects.
This has to be one of those times where you love/hate being a meterologist. Love it because you are seeing something new, but hate the potential for devastating weather.