Dreaming Of A White Christmas?

It’s been a while since I talked weather. I’d rather be doing this in front of a green wall, but pajamas on the sofa is what we’ve got. I’ll make do.

Snow on Christmas is usually a no show for Connecticut. This year looks different!

As always a few hedges. It’s Saturday. Christmas is Tuesday.

Snowfall, especially snowfall amounts, is among our most vexing forecasts. In other words, today this forecast is still carved in chocolate pudding.

The GFS forms a low pressure system over Western Kentucky Monday morning. It’s not a deep low, but it’s on the move. By Monday evening it’s approaching the coast just south of Long Island, getting ready to head out to sea.

In order to get a big snowstorm you usually need high pressure in Canada acting as a block. That’s not in evidence here. The storm will move through pretty quickly.

On the western shoreline it’s snow to start on Christmas eve, but then mixed precipitation and even some rain before dawn. Another short period of snow looks possible before the storm leaves pre-sunrise Christmas morning. Grassy surfaces should look snowy (and feel slushy). It will have to do.

On the shoreline east of New Haven there will be more rain, less snow. Sorry.

Once you move inland the chance for a ‘mostly snow’ event increases greatly. We won’t see a lot of snow from this fast mover, but beggars can’t be choosers.

The GFS implies a period of freezing rain mixed in as far north as Hartford and Willimantic, but not enough to spoil the party. North and west all snow is probable. It’s likely a 2-4″ of snow will accumulate throughout Inland Connecticut

As winter storms go this isn’t a big one. It’s in Monday evening, gone Tuesday morning.

As poetic timing goes, it’s huge!

There is another more substantial storm on tap for Wednesday-Thursday. Standby.

45 thoughts on “Dreaming Of A White Christmas?”

  1. Geoff, I trust you more than any other weatherman, my daughter is scheduled to fly out of Ct early Wed morning going west to Iowa. Do you see snow happening in the AM?

  2. Thanks…Just a thought…You should do a web cam forecast once a day.I would follow, and I know a lot of other people would. It would be great. I bet you could get some advertisers, too. You’re awesome and you’re too talented. Seriously, think about it. It would be much easier than watching the news and waiting or wondering if the weather has already come on. We could just check your forecast. Or how about an app? The Geoff Fox weather app.Please come back~ we need some Geoff wetaher & science!

    1. Awesome idea Kelly! Although just getting this blog back with a forecast is great for the moment. It’s good to have you back Geoff. Also enjoyed Doppler’s holiday picture yesterday. Merry Christmas to you and yours.

  3. Geoff, So good to see a forecast from you. I hope you and your family had a Happy Hanukkah. I love Kelly’s suggestion – great idea! Hope to see more of your postings online.
    Merry Christmas!

  4. I hope farther north (Harrison Maine and Sunday River specifically) get a good accumulation of snow for the days following Christmas!

  5. So glad to be back to the daily posts – at least I hope you’ll be back doing them daily. Their demise definitely left a big void in my day. They are always fun to read (except for the 11/18 one). And our own forecasts straight from you – what could be better!

  6. As everyone else said – nice to have you back among the living on facebook. Hope you had a wonderful celebration of Hannukah and that life is much better.
    Saw the Dave Letterman Show you attended. Your right, she rocks.

  7. Thanks Geoff. I was hoping for dry ground for New Year’s Day, though. I am leading a First Day hike in Wadsworth Falls SP. Snow means my hikers need traction devices or we will have some slipping and sliding.

  8. Yeah Geoff is back! A small Christman present to all of us! 😀 Thank you Geoff. Have a safe and Happy Holiday season!

  9. Ahhh my Christmas is complete. Would not be the same without a forecast from
    Geoff Fox!!!! Happy Holidays !!! Nice to have you back on your blog!

  10. Doing a ‘Justin Burke’, eh? He has made a career out of Facebook/blog forecasts from Baltimore. Ryan Hanrahan is doing pretty well as a blogger, too. You should continue! We miss you…..

  11. So, if my husband is going to camp out alone in the woods in Maine next week, what’s the best night for him to pitch a tent?
    Thanks Geoff!

  12. Geoff, in this horrible time, striving for something hopeful and normal has really made me miss your posts. Thank you for the respite from ready tears at the children lost. I cannot condone what you did and it brings up a lot of questions regarding trust and integrity, but you deserve to be forgiven, and as the best weatherman, you should be on the air. I rely on your forecasts for being as accurate as possible and devoid of the hype I hate. I hope things work out well for you and your family.

  13. Glad to see you back, Geoff. That online sexting was a monumental blunder, but doesn’t detract from your professional persona nor expertise. I enjoy reading yours, Bob Cox’s, and Ryan Hanrahan’s weather blogs.

    Keep up the good work, and my best to you and yours this Christmas!


  14. Happy to hear from you. Thanks for the Christmas weather report. Keep it coming. Wishing you & your family a happy holiday.

  15. I will take the your weather anyway I can get it. Hope you and your family have a wonderful holiday and the a very happy and prosperous New Year.

  16. Thanks Geoff… called my Mom to let her know we’ll be up Monday to pick her up for the Holiday before the storm hits, and will get her back to her kitty on Weds before the next one hits. Great to see your blog back on line! Have missed ya. Hugs to Doppler and your family. Hope things are going well. Jill

  17. Thanks for the info!!! Your weathercasts are still the best hands down. I click from station to station then just turn it off and go outside and see for myself! Now the bigger question… Do you put a coat on Doppler to take her for walks when it’s cold and windy? Peace. Evi

  18. Your forecast is appreciated and has been obviously missed. Actually the suggested idea of a advertising supported app is pretty good. Or a webcast. It’s clearly evident from the posts here and elsewhere that Connecticut wants you back. A local network would be very wise to pick you up now. They ARE here to inform our local population, aren’t they? And it’s clear that the local population wants you back. Local media should wise up, they’re losing out on a great benefit to them (and their bottom line, of course).

    Geoff, I wish you and your family a very happy Christmas, and I hope that you will be part of our Connecticut fabric again very soon!


  19. Happy to see ya back. In the words of Neil Young “don’t let em bring you down, its only castles burning” Happy holidays to you and yours.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *