I was just having a discussion with a friend about Hurricane Ida. It’s difficult to remember a tropical system this poorly forecast.
Here’s what the Hurricane Center said in their technical discussion Friday night:
A blown forecast like this, even though the storm is far from the mainland, changes how preparations are made. When the forecast is less dependable storm preps become necessary earlier and for more storms.
Bad forecasting is costly.
That being said I can’t tell you who forecasts hurricanes better. I’m not sure anyone does. The Hurricane Center is stocked with very bright people. Most of their lead forecasters are PhDs.
I don’t know how well, or even if, NHC does post storm analysis. In cases like this I’d like to see some outside agency or (more likely) the academic community take a gander and see if there’s anything that should be done differently.
More accurate forecasting of tropical weather systems is a money saver, plain and simple.