It’s been a while since I talked weather. I’d rather be doing this in front of a green wall, but pajamas on the sofa is what we’ve got. I’ll make do.
Snow on Christmas is usually a no show for Connecticut. This year looks different!
As always a few hedges. It’s Saturday. Christmas is Tuesday.
Snowfall, especially snowfall amounts, is among our most vexing forecasts. In other words, today this forecast is still carved in chocolate pudding.
The GFS forms a low pressure system over Western Kentucky Monday morning. It’s not a deep low, but it’s on the move. By Monday evening it’s approaching the coast just south of Long Island, getting ready to head out to sea.
In order to get a big snowstorm you usually need high pressure in Canada acting as a block. That’s not in evidence here. The storm will move through pretty quickly.
On the western shoreline it’s snow to start on Christmas eve, but then mixed precipitation and even some rain before dawn. Another short period of snow looks possible before the storm leaves pre-sunrise Christmas morning. Grassy surfaces should look snowy (and feel slushy). It will have to do.
On the shoreline east of New Haven there will be more rain, less snow. Sorry.
Once you move inland the chance for a ‘mostly snow’ event increases greatly. We won’t see a lot of snow from this fast mover, but beggars can’t be choosers.
The GFS implies a period of freezing rain mixed in as far north as Hartford and Willimantic, but not enough to spoil the party. North and west all snow is probable. It’s likely a 2-4″ of snow will accumulate throughout Inland Connecticut
As winter storms go this isn’t a big one. It’s in Monday evening, gone Tuesday morning.
As poetic timing goes, it’s huge!
There is another more substantial storm on tap for Wednesday-Thursday. Standby.