Stand Your Ground

I have written, probably too much, about winter weather and the problems forecasting it. It is my job to predict the future. I accept a salary to do it. I take responsibility for my forecasts.

If I am wrong, I get called on it – and I accept that. It is absolutely fair to do that, since I claim to be able to predict the future.

Sometimes, my forecasts are ‘fighting the tide’. I’m trying to get my opinions out, yet I’m being drowned out by other, divergent forecasts. I think that’s what’s going to happen tonight.

There’s a Winter Storm Watch for all of Connecticut, except the immediate coast. That means 6″ or more of snow is expected. But, I don’t think it’s as simple as that. And, I don’t think 6″ will fall.

Because of the track, I think we will see snow, but it will be followed by sleet (possibly freezing rain) and then plain old rain on Monday. As soon as snow turns to sleet, freezing rain or rain, the accumulations are held down. And, once temperatures go above freezing on Monday, and rain continues to fall, much of the snow will washed away.

I’m not saying it’s going to be pleasant outside – because it won’t. But, right now my opinion is outside the norm and it will take some effort to make sure it’s heard.

By the way – should I be wrong on Sunday, I will leave this post up. Making bad forecasts painful is a great motivator to be right!

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