No sooner did Hurricane Frances start fading that there’s another threat to look at, Ivan. Actually Hurricane Ivan has been a topic of interest since late last week, but because it was so far from land and Frances was such a problem, we let it build in relative anonymity.
Now it can get more attention. Here’s a snippet from the Hurricane Center’s 11:00 PM EDT Technical Discussion:
CURRENT INTENSIFICATION PHASE WILL CONTINUE AS THE PROBABILITY FOR
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NEARLY NINE TIMES THE SAMPLE MEAN. GIVEN
THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND AND THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK…IVAN IS FORECAST TO REACH 130 KT IN 12 HOURS.
Give up? As always, the technical discussion is written… well, it’s written technically.
Bottom line is, all the tools that hurricane forecasters use say this storm is a slam dunk to intensify… and it’s already Category 4. 130 kt translates to about 150 mph. Wow!
The Hurricane Center wins no prizes for Frances’ forecast. I wonder how they’ll do with this one?
It is coming from an extreme southern latitude. It was the strongest Atlantic system ever recorded that close to the Equator. Will the computer models be able to understand the dynamics of the storm when it doesn’t fit the mold? Will the Hurricane Center staff feel ‘snake bit’ as they decide what words to use and numbers to post?
Blogger’s note: My daughter tells me, whenever she sees boxed text (as we have above) it serves as a red flag signifying whatever follows will be extremely boring. Hey – I’m thrilled she reads it at all!