Do Predictors Forget?

I make weather forecasts every day. My forecasts only go out a week or so, but the first few days are the most important and the ones people remember. I don’t make long range forecasts.

When I’m wrong, especially on critical days, people remember. When you make long lead forecasts people tend not to remember as much.

AccuWeather press release: “The Northeast is staring down the barrel of a gun,” said Joe Bastardi, Chief Forecaster of the Hurricane Center. “The Northeast coast is long overdue for a powerful hurricane, and with the weather patterns and hydrology we’re seeing in the oceans, the likelihood of a major hurricane making landfall in the Northeast is not a question of if but when.”

Did AccuWeather’s release affect anyone? It came out 3/20. On 4/2 USA Today printed this AP article:

4 thoughts on “Do Predictors Forget?”

  1. Accuweather or Accuguess is notorious for their (as the above poster put it) doom and gloom forecast. They are, in my opinion, no better then the media as severe alarmists. But yet we are still drawn to them, and we are all guilty of reading their forecasts.

    Yes, Geoff, i remember that exact statement and before i could finish reading it i was angered, as a student meteorologists and for everyone else reading it. And i know other OCMs in Connecticut couldn’t agree with you more.

  2. This is an especially difficult subject for TV weather people. On one hand, we’re jealous of the incredible publicity AccuWeather gets for these predictions (Joe Bastardi has become reasonably well known on a national level). On the other hand, we’d never make them, because we know they’ll often be wrong.

    Among the more amazing features of the Internet is, there’s a record of many things that used to disappear. Our collective memory will get better becvause original releases, like Bastardi’s hurricane predictions for this season, are still online.

    Maybe that will cut down on long range forecasts.

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