Putting Your Money Where Your Mouth Is

I’m fascinated by our upcoming election. I read as much as I possibly can. That’s a tall order.

Recently, I’ve heard pronouncements from both Republicans and Democrats, that when the votes are counted, they will control the House of Representatives. They can’t both be right, can they?

Of course politicians have a vested interest in not giving up. Remember the grief Jimmy Carter got when he conceded to Ronald Reagan?

From PBS.org: Though he had been begged not to, the president gave his concession speech before the polls had closed on the West coast, hurting several Congressional Democrats in tight races. “You guys came in like a bunch of pricks, and you’re going out the same way,” a furious Tip (O’Neil) told a Carter operative.

Conceding too early can hurt national political parties. In other words, you’ve got to take everything you hear with a grain of salt.

So, who can you trust? I don’t know, but I’m curious if it might be a betting site.

I’m about to write about TradeSports.com. I have never bet on this site and don’t intend to. I’m not even sure its business is legal… at least not in the US.

Tradesports takes ‘book’ on a variety of ‘contests.’ You can bet on sporting events and snowfall in New York. It’s a pretty eclectic mix. There are a number of ‘contracts’ available on political races.

If you think money bet really is ‘smart money,’ The Democrats will win the House, the Republicans the Senate. I’ll be watching all the political races TradesSports tracks to see how they do.

The two graphs which follow are updated in realtime. They show the contract price on bets for Republican control of the House and Senate respectively. As a numbers geek, I find this part fascinating.

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