Not a great tourist day on Jamaica. Manley Airport near Kingston has been reporting winds in the mid-40 mph range. Not sure why, but they don’t report gusts.
Jamaica has seen worse–little consolation. Mudslides are often the product of this kind of weather.
My buddy Bob in Florida hit me up on IM. “European, best overall model in world by far has Hanna hitting New Orleans harder than Gustav.” He’s right, but it’s just a curious model output–nothing more.
4:09 PM Me: that is scary–but it’s over a week out!
4:10 PM Bob: yes, i didn’t say i believe it
There is no forecasting skill for this type of storm over that period of time. Even knowing that, folks like us still look at the maps as far as they go.
If Gustav ‘attacks’ New Orleans everyone will evacuate. If Hanna follows on Gustav’s heels they’ll leave again. I’m not sure they’ll return.