This entry was originally labeled Saturday’s storm even though the content made it clear it was Friday’s! I have fixed the title. Not my day.
At this point the storm due for early Friday is showing less stability than Charlie Sheen! What looked like snow early Monday and rain late Monday has reverted to its evil ways. The guidance points to snow again… and its arrival now as early as Thursday night! I won’t be surprised if the scenario changes again.
In order to better explain what meteorologists look at I’ve created a small animated map (above). These things are always confusing to people who don’t deal with them on a daily basis so let me lay out what you’re seeing.
First, there is a map under there! It’s hidden because it’s overlayed with indicators for precipitation, sea level pressure and atmospheric thickness. To make it easier I’ve thrown in an arrow pointing to Connecticut (its tip is pretty close to New Haven).
Second, the two maps in the animation both correspond to a forecast for 2:00 PM Friday, One was produced last night, the other this morning.
Third, the center of the storm is the center of the circular lines and marked by the letter “L.” The center of the storm is where the barometric pressure is lowest.
OK? I haven’t lost you yet, right?
What’s the difference between the maps? Last night the center of the low was over Northcentral New Jersey. Today it’s pushed just east of Cape Cod.
Because this storm has much colder air on its west side moving the center farther east chills the atmosphere above us! That’s why the chance for snow is now greater.
I still expect rain to mix in on the shoreline and much of this snow to be heavy and wet. If (and that’s the operative word)… if this forecast holds much of Connecticut will see six inches of snow or more.
As we move forward the models should begin to stabilize. We’ll also start having access to more models that don’t even attempt to forecast this far in the future.
Is there utility in a forecast this likely to change? Yes! Knowing there’s a reasonable chance for a storm allows people to have alternate plans. On the other hand it’s much too early to cancel or change your plans.
These were the work days I hated. I don’t want to disappoint.
I wish there was a way to be absolutely sure and know the forecast would never change. Dream on.
31 thoughts on “Friday’s Storm: Less Stable Than Charlie Sheen!”
We always knew these were the toughest forecasts for you, but that’s why we always appreciated them so much – it really does help to know what’s clear and what’s in flux. Thank you for doing this!! (And now just tell us how to call it off….. it’s going to be April, for cryin’ out loud!)
We have come to trust your forecasts, because we know you examine all the senarios before you make a forecast. You don’t rush to judegment and you are honest and tell it like it is. Either way it doesn’t look like a fun Friday. I just hope it clears for Saturday.
Excellent point Bryan. Even a rain day Friday won’t be a pleasant spring rain!
I feel like I have my own personal weather service! Thanks for doing this, more useful then the local tv web sites. Ever thought of being a online weatherman? I’d subscribe to your service!
Is the relentless wind, the last few days, a product of this system? I’m on the north side of a hill facing a couple of miles of open space. Truly miserable.
Hate that your not on tv anymore, but when you talk weather, you get the chance to go into so much more detail when discussing a potential storm. I’m loving it. I love your opening line of this entry. That probably would not have gone over too well on the tube, but I would have loved to watch you say it!
Thank you. I wonder when I will ever be able to readjust to another weather guy (or gal). So far, not a chance. You doing these instructional forecasts makes my life easier.
Did you mean the title to say Saturday’s storm? I’m hoping for the only storm on Saturday to involve the UConn men storming to the final!
Yes — it’s my day for blunders. The title has been corrected.
I need a remedial writing course!
Call me a Grammar Nazi:
and it’s arrival now as early as Thursday night!
Should be its. I don’t think anyone knows how to use
its/it’s correctly any more! AArg!
It has been corrected.
I never cease to be amazed by the frequency of variety of errors that show up in my writing! Often (as was the case this time) they’re “I should have known better” errors.
Feel free to be my editor any time.
And this forecast and your explanation is why everyone REALLY misses you and the way you help us to deal with the weather! I too would subscribe to you as an online weather forecast service!
I couldn’t agree more!
Not the first April 1st storm either! I’m a skier- bring it on!
BSA Connecticut Yankee Council is hosting the Fishing Derby at Deer Lake in Killingworth this weekend. I guess the boys will have to bring their snow shovels.
it is great to get your forcast,and i’ll take it anytime you feel like giving it to us.
do miss you on tv but this works.
could always tell if it was going to be bad because your hair was always a mess LOL!!!
probably from running your hands through it again and again!!
miss ya geoff 🙂
I hope this turns out to be an April Fool’s joke. (Wouldn’t you know, the minute I typed this, Bruce Deprest on 3 mentioned it as an April Fool’s joke, Ugh. Guess I’m not the only one thinking that way.)
Glad to see you are forecasting and sharing your thinking again! I appreciate your take on how they dynamics are evolving.
they => the
For a brief moment I could swear I heard you giving your forecast. I guess I was hearing you in my head. Thanks Geoff. Listening to these words in my head while almost simultaneously listening to the evening weather report allowed me to notice, without a doubt, just how much more information you’ve always offered and exactly how lackluster this new reporter actually is.
I still say it’s such a shame you’re not on the air. Thank you so much for this forecast and I hope you will get an offer to come back on the air soon. You are missed.
Please no more snow or snow days. We miss you sick of channel 8 showing the weather team during my tv shows. I will never be happy with the new people need Geoff back on tv.
Geoff – This is great! We really miss your weather forecasts on TV, but this is the next best thing! It’s obvious that you love forecasting, that’s probably why you’re so good at it. You explain things and always with humor.
The one thing I really like about you goeff is that you really work hard on your forecast. I agree you should do a subscription site with your weather forecast and maybe even your science content. I think you can make some money at it. There are some other sites like amazon and others that allow a portal link from your site where you can get a kick back from people buying things through your portal. I would do that especially for you, who have given so much to us. Maybe multiple portals.
Geoff, StevieMac seems to make this sound as though it’s going to rival the amounts I saw (and shoveled!!)at Lexington, Mass. on 4/1/97. In that storm, I had THIRTY inches to move. Little did I know that temperatures would skyrocket into the 70s two days later, thus obliterating ALL of that snow dump within 96 hours after the storm ended! BTW — Brad is calling for just 1-4 inches as of the 6PM cast. I am stuck with trusting him, since LIN took the BEST off the air…
We have been going from station to station trying to find someone who gives a forecast with as complete an explanation as you and also with humor thrown in as a bonus. We love the way you scientifically explain what’s happening like you did here. We’ve discovered that no such person exists. The closest we’ve come is your comment recently that Bruce Deprest is a good meteorologist. True and he gives clear explanations but lacks the humor. All on channel 8 are BORING!We’ve given up on them. Thanks for continuing here.
YOU ARE AWESOME! Love the images, the explanation of the images, and your ability to enlighten us about the weather via the Internet! I honestly understand how and why this forecast has changed in a short period of time! Thank your for continuing here!
I’m no weatherman, but I can promise that it’s going to be a crappy weekend. The Waterford Speedbowl opens this weekend, and I can only remember about two opening weekends of the last twenty five (or more) where it didn’t rain (or snow) at least one day of the two. 🙁
Keep up with the online forcasts. It’s like having our own personal special weather guy! I like checking in every day. Of course I’d love to see you on the tube again but this is very cool in the meantime!
I, too, have not found another weather forecaster that I like so I am grateful that you are doing this. You may also be glad to know that I never held forecasters responsible for the weather. The weather does what it wants and doesn’t look at the calendar. However, its good to have an idea of what the weather will be. And for that, I still turn to you. I guess I’m the second person on here who won’t mind one more snowstorm. I love snow and there are certain meals I only cook during one. So it sounds like there may be one more special snow dinner on the way!
Your writing is truly just like hearing your voice. We all seem to miss that, a lot, and that’s why we have responded to this forum. That said… if this mess we see on the maps becomes a snow event and perhaps even a major one.. how long will the white stuff hang around? Do we have warming trends coming in behind it?