This is such a guy thing. We just don’t want to commit! Oh, what the heck. I will anyway. I think I have a reasonable handle on the storm which will be over Connecticut Thursday into Friday.
I posted a little note on Facebook and Twitter Wednesday evening.
I want to have more time to digest it and the GFS, but it seems the 00z NAM is a little warmer. The NAM had been the snowier model
The little animation at the top of this entry doesn’t show perfect alignment between the GFS and NAM, but they’re now pretty close! By allowing the low pressure center to move farther north the NAM is hinting at more rain, less snow.
This is Connecticut. We don’t get weather, we get samples! That will be true with this system. Everyone will get a little of everything, but the farther south and east you are the larger percentage of what you get will be rain.
The best way to look at it is by drawing a diagonal between Union in the north and Greenwich in the southwest. South of that line will be mostly rain. North of the line will be mostly snow.
Of course it’s not that simple!
Rain is the mortal enemy of snow! Rain on the ground will usually ‘eat’ snow as it falls. That’s why I’ve divided the map at the bottom of this entry into three parts¹.
Hartford, Waterbury, Danbury, Colchester, Middletown and Storrs will get a few wet and slushy inches. If you only look at the snow falling by your window you’ll think there should be more on the ground! Most of that central slice of the state will see light snow, then rain, sleet or a wintry mix, then back to snow late Thursday night.
Closer to the shore there probably won’t be any accumulation at all. It’s still going to be a stinker of a day–cold and wet!
In the higher elevations of the Northwest Hills I wouldn’t be surprised to see some foot plus accumulations. Most areas will get significantly less.
It will be sloppy at wakeup Friday morning. Some areas will see delays or closings. Most places will not.
On a night like this I might have gotten as much as three minutes to deliver the weather on TV. I think you’re getting more meat here.
¹ – It’s times like these when I miss the computers we used to display the weather on television.
Nearly all our software came from Weather Central in Madison, WI. If there’s a way to do their graphical magic from home I haven’t figured it out… and I’m pretty resourceful where this stuff is concerned.
I have a new found respect for something I often took for granted.