Hurricane Irene: One Possible Path

This GFS panel is an OMG moment. It shows Hurricane Irene approaching Connecticut on Monday much as Hurricane Gloria did back in ’85.

Attached is part of one panel from the GFS computer model. The GFS is a synoptic scale model. Specifically, it’s not designed to forecast tropical system whose characteristics are somewhat different than ‘normal’ mid-latitude weather.

Unfortunately, a full week out there isn’t too much else you can call on. The GFS is one of the best in a decidedly motley crew.

This GFS panel is an OMG moment. It shows Hurricane Irene approaching Connecticut on Monday much as Hurricane Gloria did back in ’85. Earlier panels bring Irene inland for a significant distance, so hurricane strength winds would be unlikely in this scenario, but still strong winds and boatloads of rain.

It’s still too early to commit or make a firm forecast, but indicators like this one will keep me and my colleagues on our toes.

14 thoughts on “Hurricane Irene: One Possible Path”

  1. Not happy with the pop ups they put on your website. Fake, phony and a way to get your info. Shame on you Jeff, for allowing this.

    1. Sarah – This is my site and it’s fully administered by me. No pop-ups. I suspect your computer is infected. Sorry.

  2. Geoff would not allow any such thing for this web site. I have been here for several years and have not had ANY Problems with this site, Geoff does GREAT Due Diligence.

  3. I don’t like the prospect of water in the basement BUT I do love a good storm. Sounds like a beach day to me! Don’t worry, I’m a Jersey Girl, I know to stay far from the waves.

  4. Thanks for the updates Geoff!!! I hope it doesn’t get too nasty! I’m taking a couple days (Friday-Saturday) to visit with a friend in Philly, as of now any storm issues will still be further south by then right? I hope soooo!

    p.s.: I have never experienced any spam issues on your website, Sarah’s problem is definitely isolated…

  5. I’ve been watching 97L for a few days. Thought that when it went smack through the middle of the Hebert Box that it would steamroll right into Florida. Still could, I suppose.

    PS. Never had a pop up or any spam from Geoff’s blog.

  6. Well,GEOFF,It looks like were getting SOMETHING from this storm! I guess its time to batten down the hatches,and hope for the best! I live in a basement apt,so far, no flooding history (knock on wood) Never seen a pop-up ad on here, so far,i have an old DELL,with windows xp,its working well for my purposes. 🙂

  7. Geoff, After waiting all summer for a vacation we are supposed to be headed to Topsail Beach, NC, this Saturday. Unreal. Do you think this is even a reality for us? If so, how long do storms last when they go up the coast? I’m pretty bummed, obviously.

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