If I could vote for computer models I would vote for the GFS. Tonight it brings Hurricane Irene up the coast then skirting Long Island and staying close to Cape Cod. We still get pounded!
Other solutions are much worse.
I don’t know what to believe.
The Hurricane Center’s forecast is ominous for us Sunday. Still they admit their average error over five days is 250 miles!
I asked my friend Bob down at FSU why he thought the Hurricane Center was so far west of all the models?
Bob: ecmwf has it that’s prob why
that’s where ecmwf has 927mb
ECMWF is “European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.” They have a computer model with very high resolution and excellent results. The 927mb refers to the central pressure prediction for Irene. 927mb is very deep. It would be a strong system.
The graphic that heads this post was stolen from Weather Underground. If you’re really into the nuts and bolts they do a real great job–all the detail and minutiae you could want. It shows a variety of models, some of which pass Irene directly over Connecticut!
We’re still talking late Saturday or Sunday. There’s time to think. Stuff like this often changes. Tonight I an uneasy.
11 thoughts on “Another Night Babysitting Irene”
Geoff, I like this site – the maps seem pretty easy to decipher: http://www.stormpulse.com/atlantic
Oh, and it looks like they’ve moved the cone of uncertainty to point straight at us. 🙁
Just what I need..more to worry about. 🙁 We rent a house with lousy gutters, huge branches hanging over our house, a gigantic oak tree next to it. If the hurricane’s gonna hit, I need a hotel room for humans, dogs, cats and chickens. (And we can sneak in the turtle and eel). I wonder if there is such a place..
I agree with you Geoff on the uneasy part! Can’t sleep really either. Hubby and I are starting to plan things out like checking on our generator tanks and maybe adding one. Its nice to live with an electrician 🙂 He has the whole house hooked up. Anyway we and family are already thinking ahead and planning it out. Do you think this hurricane would be like Gloria?
By the way nice hair! The hair dresser deserves a huge tip! 🙂
I remember 8 days without power after Gloria. I live in an area without city water. I can’t bear the thought of multiple days without power or water.
I am going to meet My family in Middletown, to discuss plans, and get provisions
Not real happy about this! Living near the shore has it’s down side…….
Guess the “hurricane that wasn’t” IS !! I remember Gloria NOT fun and then my husband was alive to help and I didn’t have a new porch on the back. Does NOT make me feel safe and secure.
Time to kick in the old Boy Scout motto…”be prepared”….
Start thinking now about where you want to park your car/cars. Preferably high ground and not under a tree.
Also – if you think you might need to evacuate, make plans for your pets.
I really fear this storm, mostly because of the uncertainty. I could survive the loss of power and water,but, i REALLY fear the flood/wind damage. I live in a 4 story,32 unit building, near the WEST HAVEN green. Our mayor made an automated call to the whole town, advising us to seek shelter further inland. Thats really gonna help my wife and i. We don’t drive,and limited bus service on the weekends. I just have to hope the storm isn’t too severe. I survived GLORIA pretty well, though i lost 8 windows and my whole 3 story building swayed, for 10 hours.