Other solutions are much worse.
I don’t know what to believe.
The Hurricane Center’s forecast is ominous for us Sunday. Still they admit their average error over five days is 250 miles!
I asked my friend Bob down at FSU why he thought the Hurricane Center was so far west of all the models?
Bob: ecmwf has it that’s prob why
that’s where ecmwf has 927mb
ECMWF is “European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.” They have a computer model with very high resolution and excellent results. The 927mb refers to the central pressure prediction for Irene. 927mb is very deep. It would be a strong system.
The graphic that heads this post was stolen from Weather Underground. If you’re really into the nuts and bolts they do a real great job–all the detail and minutiae you could want. It shows a variety of models, some of which pass Irene directly over Connecticut!
We’re still talking late Saturday or Sunday. There’s time to think. Stuff like this often changes. Tonight I an uneasy.