If you’ve been reading my blog over the past few days there’s little I’m going to tell you now you don’t already know. It is likely Hurricane Irene will strike Connecticut with hurricane force winds this Sunday. All hurricane forecasts are subject to error, but I have worked diligently to get as close as possible.
The European ECMWF model which was the first to move Hurricane Irene west… far west… has settled east a little. It’s in decent agreement with the HWRF and GFS models. The ECMWF brings Irene onshore near Norwalk, the GFS near New Haven. All of them imply a storm with strength right around the line that defines a hurricane.
Because we have so many trees full of leaves the impact of a ‘less intense’ hurricane here is greater than Florida or the Outer Banks. Just think back to Gloria. I expect Hurricane Irene to be slightly stronger than Gloria.
At this point there’s really no choice but to accept this forecast. There’s not enough time to prepare if you wait.
Helaine and I have moved our deck furniture to the basement. We moved our gas grill in the house though it won’t be used while inside. We’ve gassed her car. I’ll do mine at work. We’ve got cash and our prescriptions. There’s non-perishable food ready and extra ice. Our flashlights have batteries.
You should be doing these things too.
I take no joy in making this forecast, but I have seen the aftermath of a hurricane. I don’t want to scare you unduly. However, you need to treat this storm as the serious threat it is.
If you live near the shore you need to consider a local shelter or just moving inland. Damage will probably greatest on the shoreline, especially with this storm coming at an astronomical high tide.
There will be trees and powerlines down all over the place. If this forecast comes true there won’t be much business and commerce in Connecticut come Monday!
I’ll come back and update my blog later, but even if the forecast moves Irene a little it’s too late to stand down. We’re in close enough proximity there aren’t too many other places Hurricane Irene could go.
Prepare for the worst, but hope for the best.
14 thoughts on “Irene Is A Serious Threat”
Thank you Geoff!! wise words as always. By the way, loved the clip in the previous entry from Gloria!
Thanks, Geoff. That guy from Philadelphia on Colin’s show yesterday made me angry too!
Where is the ECMWF output available online? I know typically they don’t give it out but you were saying they were sharing more than usual.
Assuming then here in Morris Cove, I should probably NOT spend the weekend hunkered down here?
Thank you for the advise!! Stay safe!
I meant to write “ADVICE”…….my brain is shot right now!!!!!
Thanks, Geoff. Will you be covering the storm as it happens? Irene brings up memories of Gloria; I remember my family in front of the TV hanging on your every word, and panic setting in when the cable suddenly zapped off.
That you can be this serious about Irene speaks volumes right now. This morning I heard another fella reporting that there has been a decrease in severity and he was making it sound as if we don’t have much to worry about. I knew that was wrong and I’ve been waiting for your report. Yours is the one I trust and if you feel this thing is going to hit us hard, I trust your judgment completely. I know you will keep us posted through the weekend as power allows.
Im glad I stuck with you. I havent watched one forecast from those nutjobs over at News8. Im only 22 so this will be an experience to put in the memory bank. I tried asking my mother about Gloria but she cant remember much.
Thanks for the GREAT info! I really rely on what you say. As you are one who doesn’t tend to hype up things you’ve got my attention! Thanks for all the great advice and keep it coming. We ‘ll be tuned in to you and the rest of the Fox61 crew through the storm!
The image in your post…there is no key, so I’m not sure how to interpret it.
Having lived in Antigua for ten years, including 1995 when we got hit by Iris, Luis and Marilyn within 19 days, I’ve grown weary of hurricanes and the anticipation that precedes them. I do take this storm seriously and expect a lot of downed trees and power outages.
In the event of power outages, what radio stations do you recommend for people to keep posted on the progress of the storm and the aftermath? I used to rely on VHF radio, but that will do me no good here!
Everybody, please take care and stay safe!
Geoff, check your blog from August 10.
“The 360 Hour from now hurricane that won’t happen”
Courtesy of the 18z GFS.
Your forecast is the only one I care about. Not enough detail on the others. Thanks for the updates.
Thanks for your ever-present care, Geoff.