If you’ve been reading my blog over the past few days there’s little I’m going to tell you now you don’t already know. It is likely Hurricane Irene will strike Connecticut with hurricane force winds this Sunday. All hurricane forecasts are subject to error, but I have worked diligently to get as close as possible.
The European ECMWF model which was the first to move Hurricane Irene west… far west… has settled east a little. It’s in decent agreement with the HWRF and GFS models. The ECMWF brings Irene onshore near Norwalk, the GFS near New Haven. All of them imply a storm with strength right around the line that defines a hurricane.
Because we have so many trees full of leaves the impact of a ‘less intense’ hurricane here is greater than Florida or the Outer Banks. Just think back to Gloria. I expect Hurricane Irene to be slightly stronger than Gloria.
At this point there’s really no choice but to accept this forecast. There’s not enough time to prepare if you wait.
Helaine and I have moved our deck furniture to the basement. We moved our gas grill in the house though it won’t be used while inside. We’ve gassed her car. I’ll do mine at work. We’ve got cash and our prescriptions. There’s non-perishable food ready and extra ice. Our flashlights have batteries.
You should be doing these things too.
I take no joy in making this forecast, but I have seen the aftermath of a hurricane. I don’t want to scare you unduly. However, you need to treat this storm as the serious threat it is.
If you live near the shore you need to consider a local shelter or just moving inland. Damage will probably greatest on the shoreline, especially with this storm coming at an astronomical high tide.
There will be trees and powerlines down all over the place. If this forecast comes true there won’t be much business and commerce in Connecticut come Monday!
I’ll come back and update my blog later, but even if the forecast moves Irene a little it’s too late to stand down. We’re in close enough proximity there aren’t too many other places Hurricane Irene could go.
Prepare for the worst, but hope for the best.