There is a time between a bowler releasing the ball and it hitting the pins. Nothing happens. Nothing changes. And then, contact!
We’re in that rolling down the alley period now.
The forecast has stabilized. That should mean the forecast is properly honed in. Maybe not. I won’t know until Monday. I am reasonably confident, but I’m still constantly checking for new data.
The Hurricane Center fudged a speed number tonight.
BASED ON THE RADAR DATA AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRONGER FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS COULD EVENTUALLY WORK INTO NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF IRENE…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 85 KT.
The “observed” wind doesn’t exist. Stronger winds will first have to work in for it to verify. 100 knots goes in the books even though it should be a lower number. This only makes a difference to a few dozen people… still!
The 00Z GFS is the spitting image of the 11:00 PM Hurricane Center track.
I still expect a storm with a little more strength than Gloria, much more rain and a back end–something Gloria lacked.
Depending on how quickly the wind reverses high tide Sunday night could see major flooding on the coast. Root for a quick moving storm for the least impact.
The image at the top of this entry is from the 00Z GFS for Bridgeport using BUFKIT. The white line is barometric pressure and the colored lines represent wind speed and direction. It’s pretty easy to see the storm pass by!
If you use BUFKIT correctly you can look at it and visualize the weather. It’s pretty amazing.
Where Irene crosses the Outer Banks tomorrow will be telling. After that I’ll watch it clearing the mouth of Delaware Bay. More interaction with land means a weaker Irene. A storm which stays out-to-sea on the other hand will be more dangerous.
You only have Saturday to prepare for this storm. Please use your time wisely. Be smart.
I get paid by the viewer. I will do my best to keep you safe.