There is a time between a bowler releasing the ball and it hitting the pins. Nothing happens. Nothing changes. And then, contact!
We’re in that rolling down the alley period now.
The forecast has stabilized. That should mean the forecast is properly honed in. Maybe not. I won’t know until Monday. I am reasonably confident, but I’m still constantly checking for new data.
The Hurricane Center fudged a speed number tonight.
BASED ON THE RADAR DATA AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRONGER FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS COULD EVENTUALLY WORK INTO NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF IRENE…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 85 KT.
The “observed” wind doesn’t exist. Stronger winds will first have to work in for it to verify. 100 knots goes in the books even though it should be a lower number. This only makes a difference to a few dozen people… still!
The 00Z GFS is the spitting image of the 11:00 PM Hurricane Center track.
I still expect a storm with a little more strength than Gloria, much more rain and a back end–something Gloria lacked.
Depending on how quickly the wind reverses high tide Sunday night could see major flooding on the coast. Root for a quick moving storm for the least impact.
The image at the top of this entry is from the 00Z GFS for Bridgeport using BUFKIT. The white line is barometric pressure and the colored lines represent wind speed and direction. It’s pretty easy to see the storm pass by!
If you use BUFKIT correctly you can look at it and visualize the weather. It’s pretty amazing.
Where Irene crosses the Outer Banks tomorrow will be telling. After that I’ll watch it clearing the mouth of Delaware Bay. More interaction with land means a weaker Irene. A storm which stays out-to-sea on the other hand will be more dangerous.
You only have Saturday to prepare for this storm. Please use your time wisely. Be smart.
I get paid by the viewer. I will do my best to keep you safe.
15 thoughts on “We’re Watching Irene And Waiting”
GEOFF,I’m about a mile from the coastline, savin rock, will the flooding reach the WEST HAVEN green????
If I am not mistaken, I believe storm surge is Very hard to predicted. I think it depends on a lot of factors. As Geoff said Plan for the Worst, and hope for the best. I for one am glad geoff is on the case. he’ll do his best.
I plan to spend the day in my cellar.
Geoff, will you be simulcasting on any radio stations during the storm so we can keep up with things after our power goes out and we lose TV coverage?
I am not sure the cellar is good with the possible flooding. My husband says no to the upstairs top floor because of falling trees. There are lots of windows in the second floor. Basement stairs are looking mighty comfy right now!
I am so glad that you are tracking the hurricane for us!! It def makes me feel a whole lot safer. You have taught me things about hurricanes that I never knew, & I thank you for that! I know that you will do everything in your power to educate us, how to stay safe, and what course of action to take if needed. But, Please, in the course of all the drama that is about to unfold, I hope that you take into consideration you & your family’s safety too. So, with that being said, Thank you again for all you do for us, especially now with this hurricane. Be safe, & I will be keeping an eye to the sky & to you for all your knowledge, updates, & warnings on this storm.
Thanks for the update! You and Helaine stay safe as well!
Thank you Geoff, I feel safe with you watching the weather for us. I trust you more than any TV station weathercast. I live alone in a second floor apartment with lots of large windows; where will be a safe place for me to be? You stay safe also 🙂
During Gloria I popped in a VHS tape and let it run constantly on Channel 8 until the power cut out. That tape is, of course, basically unwatchable now. But I remember enough about it so that, last night, when I saw you on the News at Ten, I said to my wife, “Jeez, what’s a hurricane without Geoff Fox?” So some of us still remember, and though there’s not much comfort in anticipating a catastrophe, there is some comfort in your approach. Keep up the good work.
You are such a total geek.
That’s a compliment.
My prayers to everyone is Irene’s path….does anyone know the expected time length of this storm?? Just wondering how long the worst part might last. Good luck everyone! Thank you Geoff for this info.
Thanks for putting it in perspective with Gloria as that gives something known to compare with. Amazing how the graph shows the dramatic drop in pressure! Thanks for the info, Geoff.
So glad to see you are back on the air. I absolutely love your style. Keep it real. Wish you the best!!
Jeff, I probably fall into the “Old Timers” category as I have memories of hurricanes from 1938, 1940’s, 1950’s, 1960’s etc. So all I can say to the “New Timers” a lot of you will be saying-
in long hand, ”Oh My God”
Let me say two good things about this hurricane: GEOFF FOX. We watched Friday night on Fox 61 Hartford. In about five minutes, we had everything we needed and wanted to know about it, before, during and after the storm. Bravo, Geoff! Great job as always!!