It’s very early Thursday. There’s a chance for snow Sunday. I so wish I knew what was going to happen. The computer models have waffled on the main low’s position. Right now all I can do is weigh the options.
Tonight was the perfect opportunity to download the latest version of BUFKT, the Swiss Army Knife of weather. A new algorithm for liquid-to-snow ratio calculation has been added. BUFKIT was developed at the Weather Service. It’s distributed free. I use it every single day.
It bears repeating this far out you have little choice but monitor the models. No human could possibly forecast 4, 5, 6, 7 days out on his own. The math is incredibly complex because the atmosphere is infinitely complex.
The GFS came in with an interesting solution. It’s the model I favor. I’ll also look at the ECMWF which has become more easily found online.
The GFS starts Hartford with sleet pre-dawn turning to snow in the afternoon. It calls for 1.5″ of snow, but that’s after nearly a half inch liquid equivalent of sleet. I’m not sure how much of that snow will stick.
If it does stick we’ll have bigger problems with icy everything Sunday night!
On the shoreline the scenario looks oddly similar with sleet to snow, except more of each. 3″ is possible in New Haven though some/most of it could easily be lost to wet streets.
This storm is still far away. Things will change.
Even having imperfect insight is valuable.