Last night at 11:00 PM I mentioned the chance for some morning snow tomorrow (Friday). It didn’t look like a lot. It still doesn’t look like a lot, but it looks like more and it looks like it will really mess up the morning commute!
My model of choice tonight is the Rapid Refresh aka HRRRR. The other models have slowly been building the snow with a little bit more in each run. I needed something to help me commit.
Running every hour and forecasting for the next fifteen hours this event should be in the HRRR’s wheelhouse.
Snow should start in the middle of the night. It will be snowing in most of inland Connecticut by morning drive. The Northwest Hills could have two to as much as five inches by that time. Most of the rest of inland Connecticut will be in the slushy to an inch or two range.
It doesn’t take much. All the slippery is in the first ¼ inch. With that in mind there will be a lot of slippery.
On the shoreline? Not for you this time!
Because the entire state will see a quick changeover to rain (and incoming solar radiation equal to late October) I would expect more delays than cancellations.
Why am I even saying that? Every time I try to predict school closings I realize how futile that is!
There will be more data before airtime. I’ll surely revise my numbers. Right now I’m just trying to get my thoughts together.