Will You Wake To Snow?

It doesn’t take much. All the slippery is in the first ¼ inch. With that in mind there will be a lot of slippery.

Last night at 11:00 PM I mentioned the chance for some morning snow tomorrow (Friday). It didn’t look like a lot. It still doesn’t look like a lot, but it looks like more and it looks like it will really mess up the morning commute!

My model of choice tonight is the Rapid Refresh aka HRRRR. The other models have slowly been building the snow with a little bit more in each run. I needed something to help me commit.

Running every hour and forecasting for the next fifteen hours this event should be in the HRRR’s wheelhouse.

Snow should start in the middle of the night. It will be snowing in most of inland Connecticut by morning drive. The Northwest Hills could have two to as much as five inches by that time. Most of the rest of inland Connecticut will be in the slushy to an inch or two range.

It doesn’t take much. All the slippery is in the first ¼ inch. With that in mind there will be a lot of slippery.

On the shoreline? Not for you this time!

Because the entire state will see a quick changeover to rain (and incoming solar radiation equal to late October) I would expect more delays than cancellations.

Why am I even saying that? Every time I try to predict school closings I realize how futile that is!

There will be more data before airtime. I’ll surely revise my numbers. Right now I’m just trying to get my thoughts together.

10 thoughts on “Will You Wake To Snow?”

  1. Jeff you absolutely cant let it snow. The city of Waterbury just cleaned the streets in my neighborhood and I washed my car today …. lol

  2. Well a delay is better than a cancellation. At least I will still get paid and we won’t have yet another day tacked on to the school year!

  3. Second to Dr. Mel. I Always trust what Geoff Fox Has had to say. A little bit of snow and a delay is better than a autumn noreaster!!!!

  4. Geoff

    It might be an interesting article if on say 1 March (end meteorlogical winter?) you were to compare the pre-season winter forecasts, with the actual weather. I seem to recall (maybe wrongly)that a cold season, with above average snow was forecast. If so, the professional (NOT yours) long range forecasts were about as valuable as Pixatuny (sp?) Phil.


  5. We got about 2 inches and now rain.The snowplow woke me up and I couldn’t believe I heard it go down the road til I looked out.When I went to bed they said rain wish I had checked you first !!! From now on I will !!

  6. Here in Gales Ferry we got about 2″. They had done a good job on the roads, and it was mostly wet with a little slush here and there. Schools delayed 90 minutes.

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