The Election’s Over?

I’ve been meaning to write about this for a while, but it wasn’t until I saw Matt Taibbi of Rolling Stone Magazine on CNN earlier today that I felt motivated.

“I don’t know any campaign journalists out there who thinks that Romney has a legitimate chance to win. And I’m not making a value judgment about any candidate. I just think that, in the press, there’s this general feeling that this election is a foregone conclusion. You have a relatively popular incumbent, the economy is not doing terribly and traditionally – especially the candidate who has a fundraising advantage – almost always wins.

Could Romney win, yes it’s possible. But I just don’t think it’s likely and that takes a lot of suspense out of the race.”&#185

If you’ve seen the most recent presidential polls you might be scratching your head. President Obama and Governor Romney seem neck-and-neck. In fact, if you check out Drudge he’s nearly always linking to Rasmussen polls showing Governor Romney a few percentage points ahead.

That’s not how we elect a president.

When you boil down the Electoral College numbers you get a totally different view. HuffingtonPost breaks it out Obama-294 Romney-170.

247 Strong Obama
47 Leans Obama
74 Tossup
0 Leans Romney
170 Strong Romney

That’s a major surprise for most people. It was a surprise to me when I started seeing numbers like that a few months ago.

Britain’s Ladbroke’s betting parlors are offering 1:2 odds for an Obama win (bet $1 and get back $1.50) and 13:8 for Romney (bet $1 and get back $2.62&#189). In horse racing that makes President Obama the prohibitive favorite.

Intrade sets the odds at 59.8% for an Obama win and 36.4% for Governor Romney.

It’s only May. Anything can happen. This is still surprising.

&#185 – Though I watched this live I am borrowing the quotes from Mediaite – a site I visit a few times a day.

8 thoughts on “The Election’s Over?”

  1. Romney is absolutlely an “Empty Suit”! There is nothing their.
    Hey Mitt, how much does a gallon of milk cost?

    1. OK, guys. Enough. The post was about polls and predictions, not policy or personality.

      Love you both, but make my life easier. OK?

  2. I feel that even with all of the crazy GOP candidates there was some energy… Buzz. I feel that’s all gone now…

  3. The only thing I can add, polling has been wrong before, and its still a long way to November.

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