From the National Hurricane Center: ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY…AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE…80 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
As I wrote during Alberto, there’s a reason we don’t usually get tropical systems this time of year. When conditions are conducive for intensification they’re only marginally conducive and only in a very small area.
Unfortunately one of the long range computer models brings Beryl up-the-coast by next Friday.
Likely? No. Possible? Yes.
Long range forecasting of tropical systems is notoriously poor. I’ll keep my eye on it.