The Storm Prediction Center says we’re in the ‘slight risk’ area for severe weather today. Most government warnings overstate problems. SPC’s preliminary advice is usually too conservative. A slight risk area nearly always leads to a Severe Thunderstorm Watch area. Conditions certainly favor that.
SPC’s usual pattern is to post the risk area then later discuss the area in more detail with a Mesoscale Discussion. The only MD in effect as I type is for Maine. MDs lead with watches.
…MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST… A BREAK FROM THE RECENT HEAT IN THE EAST WILL EVENTUALLY COME IN THE FORM OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY EARLY SATURDAY. A VERY MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE LIKELY TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG FROM NC TO NYC. TSTMS SHOULD BECOME MORE COMMON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE BREACHED EARLY AND LIFT WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
If/When we get storms the largest threat will be downburst winds and, of course, the lightning itself! It’s a bigger deal because of all the outdoor graduation ceremonies scheduled. People and lightning don’t mix!
The good news is there’s more comfortable air on the other side and it should be in place by Saturday morning.
See you on the TV this afternoon. I’ll be wrangling the weather on the FoxCT News at 4.