Late Night With Sandy

I was just chatting with a friend, a meteorologist out-of-state. He wants to come up for Sandy. That’s crazy. Why would you want to expose yourself to that willingly?

not nec b/c of intensity, but because of duration * unknown structure

He’s saying Sandy is different from the other storms. It’s built different.

Beyond that most models are predicting sharp turns. It can’t do that without slowing its forward speed. If you’re under that turning point (as we might be) the storm could be over you an extended period of time–days. That’s rare, but possible.

The graphic at the top of this entry is the current GFS track. It is very scary for Connecticut. If that track comes true, we’re in trouble.

We are at the limits of science. We may be forecasting the storm correctly. One of the models might have it pegged. Which one? We just won’t know until Sandy’s gone!

As of tonight, GFS bad for us, UKMET bad for us and the ECMWF still to come&#185.

Most likely arrival time would be the pre-show Sunday and then the brunt of Sandy Monday and Tuesday.

There’s little we can do other than grin and bear it. Do things to keep yourself safe.

&#185 – ECMWF comes in with a massive hurricane in the Chesapeake Bay.

5 thoughts on “Late Night With Sandy”

  1. I got my ‘hurricane coat’ out and a can of wax (it’s waxed cotton) and I’ll be working on that this weekend. Need some fruit punch for my rum though…..

  2. Geoff:

    Are you familiar with It’s another tool people in the Caribbean use to “translate” forecast model data into wind speeds, gusts, wave heights and precipitation amounts.

    The site uses the GFS model as its lead model. For CT, the only available location is Old Saybrook; using the 11 am forecast, windguru shows the greatest impact to be from the sound, with wave heights peaking at 15 ft. Heaviest rains forecast for midday on Tuesday.

    This is only a projection, but it does give people some idea of potential impacts under the different forecast models.

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