I was just chatting with a friend, a meteorologist out-of-state. He wants to come up for Sandy. That’s crazy. Why would you want to expose yourself to that willingly?
not nec b/c of intensity, but because of duration * unknown structure
He’s saying Sandy is different from the other storms. It’s built different.
Beyond that most models are predicting sharp turns. It can’t do that without slowing its forward speed. If you’re under that turning point (as we might be) the storm could be over you an extended period of time–days. That’s rare, but possible.
The graphic at the top of this entry is the current GFS track. It is very scary for Connecticut. If that track comes true, we’re in trouble.
We are at the limits of science. We may be forecasting the storm correctly. One of the models might have it pegged. Which one? We just won’t know until Sandy’s gone!
As of tonight, GFS bad for us, UKMET bad for us and the ECMWF still to come¹.
Most likely arrival time would be the pre-show Sunday and then the brunt of Sandy Monday and Tuesday.
There’s little we can do other than grin and bear it. Do things to keep yourself safe.
¹ – ECMWF comes in with a massive hurricane in the Chesapeake Bay.