It’s not going to be a miss. It’s just a question of how much of a hit. That’s where we stand Friday night.
Sandy is still 750 miles away. That’s straight line distance. Sandy will take a longer route. The storm will meander, first to the right then the left. It’s a hurricane path unlike any I’ve seen before.
Let’s face it, Sandy is unlike any storm I’ve seen before! It’s also unlike anything the computer models have dealt with before. Are they properly configured to understand the internal dynamics? Ask me next Friday.
There have been stronger and larger hurricanes. This is not about superlatives of strength. It’s about structure.
Sandy will soon become a weird hybrid–not quite a hurricane, not quite a winter storm. Hurricanes are fueled by warm water. Winter storms get their power from temperature contrasts.
Usually when hurricanes lose their warm water source they fizzle. Sandy won’t. A cold front to the west will help ‘preserve’ the storm’s strength as its wind field widens.
Interestingly, NHC’s track is south of the GFS and ECMWF (European) models. If the GFS and ECMWF hold steady later tonight expect the official forecast to be nudged farther north.
A GFS type track (see graphic at the top) would be tragic for Connecticut. Tropical storm force winds, high tides with major coastal flooding and heavy rain would be likely. And the GFS keeps the storm (though at diminished strength) nearby through the end of the week!
The ECMWF isn’t as bad, but still pretty brutal here.
Only if Hurricane Sandy turns west much farther to the south than anyone expects will we be spared. One can hope. It’s unlikely.
Of all Connecticut’s perils, coastal flooding and beachfront destruction are the scariest. If you’re asked to evacuate, don’t be foolish.
The Washington Post quotes AccuWeather senior Vice President Mike Smith:
A very prominent and respected National Weather Service meteorologist wrote on Facebook last night,
I’ve never seen anything like this and I’m at a loss for expletives to describe what this storm could do.
Yeah, that’s about right.
Our effects from Sandy begin Sunday with a breezy, showery day. Not too terrible. The wind ramps up Monday and continues that trend, peaking sometime Tuesday.
You should now be well into your storm preps. Use the time wisely. Be prepared. Stay safe.
It’s entirely possible Connecticut’s run-in with Sandy will be bad and not BAD. Still, someone on the East Coast will be dealt a body blow.
More tonight after the late models arrive.