Do forecasts change? Yes. Absolutely.
There’s still a Nor’easter coming Wednesday, but every part of it has changed just a little since I last wrote about it.
It’s after 1:30 AM. Thanks to the switch back to Eastern Standard Time the computer models come in an hour earlier. The GFS, NAM and ECMWF are all present and accounted for.
This storm is projected farther east in its track than it was 24 hours ago. A position farther east is like turning the thermostat down. It’s colder here.
It looks like the precipitation starts Wednesday evening. The shoreline might see a little as early as 5:00 PM, but more likely later.
We’re right on the line. Some indicators are on the snow side. A few are working against.
Whatever we get will be wet and mushy. The warm ground is the wild card for accumulation. Maybe a few inches through much of the state. Probably less.
There will be some snow on the shoreline, but it’s going to be really tough for it to accumulate there unless it starts with a snow burst. Probably not.
The wind will howl! It won’t be as bad as Sandy.
The breeze picks up Wednesday evening. North or northeast winds will clock 15-35 mph inland and 20-40 mph on the coast. Gusts will be higher.
Also not as bad as Sandy will be the chance for coastal flooding. Tide levels will be at least two or three feet lower than Sandy.
It’s possible this forecast will change again. It’s the best I’ve got right now.