A little after four this afternoon Rachel Frank took to Twitter:
You know it’s a tough forecast when @geofffox says he’s glad he doesn’t have to present the weather until 11 PM.
Yup. She’s right. I’m thrilled to stand back and have a little more data before going on-the-air tonight!
Unfortunately some forecasts can’t be put off. My daughter called from Los Angeles this afternoon. Her boss is heading to New York Wednesday. He wanted weather advice¹.
“Early Wednesday or late Thursday arrival,” I said. “Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon will be a problem.”
The European and GFS models have both gotten colder. That means some areas around Hartford and I-84 and areas farther north from there might see a little snow as the system starts Wednesday afternoon. The GFS spits out 1.4″ of snow in Hartford. It will probably be slushy. Most will melt on contact.
No promises, that’s just what’s most likely.
Through the evening most of Connecticut turns to rain. Higher elevations and portions of Litchfield County (and possibly the hills in Northeastern Connecticut) see rain too, just later.
Temperatures will be close to 32°. The models follow the early inland snow with freezing rain before going to all rain. Freezing rain is a tough sell for me. It’s possible, not likely.
If you live in a normally snowy location you’ll probably have some wet accumulation. The GFS shows as much as 4″ of snow in Canaan before they switch to freezing rain, then rain.
The biggest deal of this storm is the wind. The Weather Service is worried about gusts to 70 mph on the shoreline. That seems high. There will be strong winds, just not that strong.
If I lived on the immediate shoreline I’d be scared. It’s not warranted for this storm, but understandable.
This storm packs nowhere near the wallop of Sandy. The wind will be of a shorter duration, less ferocious. Storm surge will be feet lower. Flooding will be significantly less–no more than we get every winter.
As was the case with Hurricane Sandy, Wednesday’s Nor’easter will wallop those to our south. Haven’t they had enough weather already?
¹ – Hiring my daughter comes with free weather forecasting. It’s part of the package.