May I Have A Little Crow With That Forecast, Please?

Earlier today I razzed Karl Rove and Dick Morris for blowing the forecast in the presidential election. There’s probably a little razzing room to add me too.

Though my forecast was right for most of the state, it was very wrong for some people who mean a lot to me. The area from Middletown to New Haven on either side of I-91 then across toward Danbury is Connecticut’s snow capitol at this hour. My wife just told me we were approaching a foot of snow in Hamden

I am told the time to travel from Hartford to Waterbury on I-84 now approaches infinity!

These Nor’easters are tricky. Duh! No one should be surprised this one came, brought strong winds and made the commute home hell. That was all in the forecast.

What I missed was the extent and persistence of the snow. Where is the rain I thought would be overspreading us by now?

If it will make you feel better we don’t even have two inches here at the Courant/FoxCT’s building in Hartford. This is one place the forecast verified.

Not feeling better? I tried.

Please accept my apology for steering you wrong.

I’m still looking for the smoking gun which will tell me what I should have looked at, but didn’t. It might not exist. This storm might be one of those more complex than our scientific ability to dissect.

As penance I will be forced to drive home through this crap at 11:35.

32 thoughts on “May I Have A Little Crow With That Forecast, Please?”

  1. Forcasting can be tricky and no one gets it right every time (although you do better than most). It’s like the old saying about New England weather, if you don’t like it wait a minute.
    We got about 3 inches out where I live and it’s creating enough problems thank you.
    I do feel bad for people along the shoreline who are still dealing with the aftereffects of Sandy.

  2. Plotting looks like you are waving to us on this side of the state — and there is a heart to the west. It’s all good, Mother Nature is having a little fun with CT right now…. 😉

  3. Lunchtime in Middletown area, people were getting stuck everywhere. Drive home to North Guilford was a two-hour proposition.

  4. It could always be worse (look at Staten Island)! The only thing that upsets me is that a couple years ago FOX61 started an affiliate war in Connecticut. According to my cable company, FOX61 management mandated that FOX5 come off Cablevision’s New Haven county area line-up in order to continue carrying FOX61. In turn, FOX5 mandated that FOX61 come off all Fairfield county line-ups in order to keep FOX5. Long story short, no more Geoff Fox, no more Al Terzi, no more excellent coverage. Both FOX’s co-existed for years on our cable with no problems. In fact, we were watching Channel 5 with our antenna before I ever remember channel 61 showing up years ago. Why did your bosses have to go and ruin a good thing for us? Miss your coverage a lot, we’re thankful for the internet, but it’s still not the same as having you on the TV!

  5. Approaching 10″+ in Beacon Falls- the commute home from Trumbull was an 80-minute endeavor at 3:00 this afternoon. Thanks, Mother Nature!

  6. It seems that the models and intuition often have an adjustment period during the early part of snow season; that is until the normal patterns set up. Not too dissimilar from CT drivers during the first snow of each year. 6″+ along the Q here in Fair Haven. Drive home safely Geoff. Maybe tailgate a snow plow.

  7. Hello Weather Bureau?
    I now have to shovel 6 inches of “mixed precipitation” on ground that’s “too warm” for heavy wet snow to stick other than on grassy surfaces! Thank You!

  8. NOBODY got the forecast right for New Haven. Don’t beat yourself up over it. Even now, I am getting the feeling that the forecast for us is still a moving target. Nonetheless, tomorrow will come, and there will be another chance to do better. No worries.

  9. The good thing for us in Bethany is that with the early predictions of some snow with Sandy, my husband put the studded snow tires on both of our trucks. So, when by noon it was obvious that we would get a lot more snow, at least we were prepared.
    Does mud season start Sunday?
    This may be the big one – wouldn’t it be nice to think there won’t be another storm like this?
    Not to worry, Geoff. You don’t have to be perfect.

  10. Just drove home from New Canaan to Monroe Via the Merrit.Parkway’s in poor condition with lots of stuck vehicles especially on hills and a couple of spins also.Please be careful out there folks.Roads are treacherous at best and watch those bridges and overpasses,Man are they slippery!

  11. You are forgiven Geoff! If it’s any consolation, it seems to be more like rain now in Naugatuck (10:25). It ought to produce a nice crust on top of the snow; will be fun shoveling, but not until morning. Be safe!

  12. It’s nice that there is still a bit of mystery to the weather. My sore back may not agree, but there ya go. I thought Athena was the goddess of wisdom, not humility. I’d still rather have you predict the weather than Dick Morris predict an election. Now if Nate Silver ever got in the wx game…; drive safely.

  13. Be careful driving home. Took me an hour and a half to get from from Hartford to Coventry. By then I was ready for a glass of wine. Hideous commute. But hey it’s New England and forecasting is just that. Not perfect. We shall endure. Lol

  14. It caught us all off guard. Thanks for the apology – not necessary…but appreciated. Safe home those West Woods hills are awful!

  15. Nope. Not feeling better. Once again my daughters power is out. She’s in Hamden too which makes me wonder if you’re going to have power when you get home. I don’t envy you that ride home, although you drive a Subaru so you shouldn’t have much trouble. If this is the kind of winter we’re going to have, I suggest you get a futon for work and just stay there. That drive on I-91 is a beast.

  16. Geoff,
    I would say 10″ here in southern Hamden and my hubby drove 2 hours from Hartford to home. As for the crow: 1) dick Morris will be eating a flock and 2) as long as you keep using and supporting science, I would be glad to take the occasional error. Don’t sweat it, we are just glad to have you back.
    Debi T.

  17. Thanks for connecting with us Geoff. And yes, there is a foot of snow in Hamden. My shih tzus ran out the door and disappeared. They have been retrieved, and we will dig out of this mess.

    Thanks for taking the time to talk to us. It’s no wonder why CT thinks you’re the best!

  18. I feel better having to brave the San Francisco Bay Area traffic now – sounds like it will be easier than my old Connecticut home.

    Fun to read your bio, too. You were a favorite of mine during my 20+ years in New Haven.

    PS: I want to move back – if anyone needs a systems administrator, let me know 😉

  19. As a Romney, Linda voter, I am disappointed. Enjoy the fact that your selections won and warrant razzing!

    Looking forward to a Geoff Post on how well the 2012 Phillies did. Maybe a Super Bowl prediction for the current Eagle team?

  20. I ask ways remember the forecast for flurries years ago. It took me 2 days to dig out. Yeah I bet we will all make a mistake some day. You’re still the best for our house.

  21. Ugh driving home in this was horrendous! I live in Southbridge, MA and had to drive home from Newington in that and it got worse and worse the farther north I drove. I really didn’t think I was going to make it home Wednesday night. Almost 3 hrs later I finally arrived. I hate driving in snow!

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