My threshold for weather worry has been raised since I’ve been off the air. The potential for Friday goes beyond even that new threshold!
Big snow potential: yes
Power outage potential: yes
Snow/sleet/rain mix: that too!
This far out I’m making use of the GFS and ECMWF (European) models. They have similar solutions.
You can’t expect them to fully agree… at least I don’t.
Much of the state is in line for one to two inches of liquid. We’ll see rain, sleet and snow at times. Snow totals are impossible to pin down today–Tuesday. Our low pressure system is only now emerging east of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Northern Mexico!
The system moves northeast from Mexico to the Carolinas, hitting the beach early Friday morning. From there the trajectory bends left a little, allowing the low to pass south of Montauk Point, Long Island Friday evening then steam toward the Canadian Maritimes.
As the storm hits the ‘warm’ Atlantic its central pressure drops like a rock. Bombogenesis! Classic Nor’easter.
This will be a 24 hour event (maybe longer). Snow will be heaviest in the north. Winds will strongest in the east. Outages seem likely.
Friday looks to be a sloppy, slippery, difficult to deal with day.
I’ll update as we move through the week.