My Fake Facebook Friends

There is a subset of my friends I haven’t yet figured out except I know they’re not real people. They are usually very attractive younger women posed provocatively. I’m not talking get you kicked off Facebook steamy provocative, but these women are nubile.

I accept all Facebook friend requests from people (not businesses). That’s brought me 2,500 friends many of them viewers most of whom I don’t know. It’s actually a nice connection never available to me before. Thank you for being a friend.

That being said I enjoy stalking strangers lives online. Some of you are more interesting than others.

I’ve read along as you screamed your most personal secrets for all to see.

I know when you’ve been sleeping. I know when you’re awake. I know when you’ve been bad and good.

Do I ever!

I recently read an angry rant by a friend about his soon-to-be ex-spouse. Ouch!

There is a subset of my friends I haven’t yet figured out except I know they’re not real people. They are usually very attractive younger women posed provocatively. I’m not talking get you kicked off Facebook steamy provocative, but these women are nubile&#185.

I suspect the idea is no guy is going to turn down a Facebook invite from this girl. We remember when we were this girl’s age. We would not have been on her radar.

Considering their obvious comfort before a camera these faux friends have but one photo in their profile. Often they’ve been on Facebook a short amount of time–strange for someone in their early twenties. Their wall never carries real two-way conversations.

Sometimes you’ll see a guy who has lost touch with reality posting on her wall under the mistaken impression some babe is coming on to him and he can hit on her. He never posts twice.

Are they stalking me and others? Could be. I’ll keep looking and would appreciate hearing if you’ve had similar friendings.

&#185 – I wouldn’t normally set the definition of nubile here, but if you were searching to see what I mean the first Google return is a porn site… so

Main Entry: nu·bile
Pronunciation: \ˈnü-ˌbī(-ə)l, ˈnyü-, -bəl\
Function: adjective
Etymology: French, from Latin nubilis, from nubere to marry — more at nuptial
Date: circa 1642
1 : of marriageable condition or age
2 : sexually attractive —used of a young woman

My Scammy Facebook Friend

Never underestimate the resourcefulness of crooks! If there’s a place for them to operate they’re there in a hurry.

Never underestimate the resourcefulness of crooks! If there’s a place for them to operate they’re there in a hurry. That means I shouldn’t really be surprise to get what looks like a 419 scam message via Facebook.

Ansu Sonko hello how are u there i hope u are fine and well am ansu from the gambia 22old can we be friendships u can add me ansusonko@****mail.com di u have msn what is ur name and age where are u from what is ur job what are ur hobbiest my is learning football ok and mucian

Ansu ‘friended’ me on Facebook. My policy is to accept all requests because many viewers I don’t personally know request it. I’ve come to a point where I believe that’s a good thing&#185.

His message was posted multiple times on my profile. He left it on a video, wall post and as a comment to a link.

It’s not the broken English that leads me to conclude it’s a scam&#178, it’s that he’s trying to move the conversation off Facebook to regular email. He understands his time on Facebook is limited. It won’t take long for him to be banned.

An email conversation gives Ansu freer reign to work his magic without supervision.

I shouldn’t be surprised. Big city residents lock their doors. Country folk often don’t. Facebook has become more-and-more a city full of strangers.

For a site that claims it wants to “make the world more open and connected” this is a sad moment.

&#185 – Originally I thought I’d keep Facebook for more traditional friends. Some people were offended when ignored. I would be too. Once I realized that my policy changed.

&#178 – The official language of The Gambia is English. It is a former English colony.

Will Greed Bite Some Companies In The Butt?

Hey Apple, Google and Facebook I’m talking to you!

It’s a bad time to be greedy. I’m not saying every greedy company is going to get smacked (Do dreams ever come true?), but there will be some examples made. There must be some schvitzing going on at the highest levels of BP and Goldman Sachs.

Or, possibly, those companies feel they’re impervious to our wrath. Alas, they’re probably right.

On the other hand open greediness is not good for companies that make their money the old fashioned way–selling to consumers.

Hey Apple, Google and Facebook I’m talking to you!

Let’s start with Apple because this is a company so cool until recently its sh*t didn’t stink. Product-after-product came down the pipe on the backs of unicorns, gleaming with glitter. Apple’s products dominate the high end of computing and telephony where the highest profits lie.

You would think they’d be happy in Cupertino. Guess not.

Apple has shown a desire to control every part of your experience once you buy any of their products. They have done it in such a ham fisted that even Apple fanboys are starting to question their motives. These are the people who earlier would have testified on Apple’s behalf in any sh*t don’t stink litigation.

Apple’s brouhaha with Adobe over Flash is but one example of how not to do it in PR. The same goes for its iron fisted grip on what the iPhone can and cannot do (like sync to your computer wirelessly–one of many built-in capabilities Apple has forbidden from being implemented).

Actually, the best example of foot shooting comes from Apple’s ban of an app meant to show Mark Fiore‘s animated cartoons. Right after Apple turned the app down Fiore won a Pulitzer Prize. Oops. Apple relented after the damage was done.

Now Facebook is perilously close to MySpacing! The recent graphic depiction of Facebook’s shifting privacy policies and a few recently unearthed quotes from founder Mark Zuckerberg showing his contempt for his own users will drive people away.

The bad news for Facebook is this PR debacle is happening so quickly that users might revolt without even knowing what they’re revolting against. It makes no difference. Facebook will be the loser.

Of course the reason Facebook’s privacy policies have become so much less user friendly over time is because there’s more money to be made when privacy isn’t respected. That’s more greed in action.

Shouldn’t there be a point when you make more money by innovating not compromising your customers inner secrets?

Finally there’s Google. Just today Google had to backtrack on what information they get as their “Street View” vehicles comb the world. It seems they’re not just taking photos. They’re also scanning to identify WiFi hotspots so they can connect IP addresses with physical locations.

“It’s now clear that we have been mistakenly collecting samples of payload data from open (i.e. non-password-protected) Wi-Fi networks, even though we never used that data in any Google products,” Alan Eustace, senior vice president for engineering and research

CNET headlines their story about this: “Google: Oops, we spied on your Wi-Fi.” Your information is converted into their revenue stream.

Luckily for Google their biggest search competitor is Microsoft, a previous greed poster child.

The problem for all these companies is their products are becoming more like commodities every day. The iPhone isn’t the only smartphone of its kind anymore. Facebook’s functionality can easily be replicated. Others can perfect search.

For these companies their good name is worth more every day, but only as long as it is actually a good name.

Maybe these exceptionally profitable web companies should realize their users are what gets them the cash. It’s the 21st Century. Their customers will turn on a dime.

Embracing What We’d Formerly Hide

Because of social media, things like Facebook, Twitter and even this blog, viewers are drawn behind-the-curtain into what we’re doing.

At the TV station we’ve changed our our shape, our look and our name. Our newscasts, now 16:9 on a mainly red accented set and with bolder graphics, are called News 8.

I’ve been through these format changes before. You move on and forget the old. In fact the old is never mentioned.

That’s changed.

Because of social media, things like Facebook, Twitter and even this blog, viewers are drawn behind-the-curtain into what we’re doing. It’s totally unexpected by me. I’ll bet it’s unexpected by my bosses too.

Someone’s been posting to Twitter photos of our logo appearing on-air. A few of our staffers joked on Facebook about anchors (now including me) reverting to our old name. Our viewers are following the conversation and joining in.

For the station it’s probably a good thing. Viewer involvement builds brand loyalty.

But who knew? Who expected this? Not me. It’s a new world.

Facebook, You’re Bugging Me

But it’s my choice and I don’t use the subterfuge of friending someone to accomplish my commercial goals.

facebook-page.gifWhen I first plopped myself onto the Internet in 1992 it was a very different place. This was the pre-browser, pre-WWW era. If there was anything commercial on the web I didn’t see it. Besides, the web (for me) was totally text based and running to my computer at either 300 or 1,200 baud (I can’t remember at the moment).

Things have changed! The Internet is full of ads and commercialism. Some companies, Google for instance, managed to find a way to make ads more valuable by making them contextual. Few find Google’s ads objectionable (though they’re often weirdly out-of-context)

Lets talk about Facebook. It’s relationship with ads is very different.

Modeled on Harvard’s actual physical “you can hold it in your hands” Facebook, it has become the leading social networking site on the web. They claim 350 million active users over the last 30 days! I can believe it.

Running the site must be expensive, because even with all the ads there are also commercially sponsored apps. I have railed about apps and their misleading come-ons in the past.

Either I’ve clicked enough buttons to silence most of them or their number is diminishing. Maybe their days are numbered?

Still, Facebook is too ripe with customers for businesses to stay away. Three of my last four friend requests were from businesses! That’s against Facebook’s TOS, but just wrong as a matter of common decency.

One woman (recently friended and now unfriended) sent an unsolicited invitation to her company’s wine tasting. I hit ignore (I’m a non-drinker) but was still spammed this morning by her ALL CAPS Facebook email with the details.

Founded in February 2004, Facebook is a social utility that helps people communicate more efficiently with their friends, family and coworkers. The company develops technologies that facilitate the sharing of information through the social graph, the digital mapping of people’s real-world social connections. Anyone can sign up for Facebook and interact with the people they know in a trusted environment.

“[T]rusted environment.” That’s the operative phrase. That’s why I find this whole rush toward businesses wanting to be my friend smarmy. They want to take advantage of that trusted environment, which they’ve done… to the detriment of trust!

There is a place for business on Facebook. There are fan sites and other ways to communicate with customers. I am part of one. I am a member of others. But it’s my choice and I don’t use the subterfuge of friending someone to accomplish my commercial goals.

Facebook has in many ways become a pain-in-the-ass. There are many good parts. I like that I can see photos and hear stories from my friends (whether close friends or just Facebook friends). I don’t want to be hustled. We are approaching the tipping point.

If not careful Facebook will find, as MySpace has found, friendship is fleeting.

Explosion In Middletown

The house shook from an explosion at the Kleen Energy plant in Middletown. That’s around 20 miles from here. Their website says it’s “in construction”:

kleen energy plant.gifAround 11:30 this morning my house shuddered. We’ve been hit by flying branches in storms. This was different. There was no sound, just a compression shock. I got out of bed and headed downstairs.

Helaine was on the sofa. She perceived it differently from me. She said we should check the house. I opened the door and saw nothing. We went to the basement and garage. Nothing again.

The house shook from an explosion at the Kleen Energy plant in Middletown. That’s around 20 miles from here. Their website says it’s “in construction”:

620 MW – Siemens-Combined Cycle, ISO & FERC 345kV Interconnect Approved –Pipeline Delivered – Dual Fuel – Gas & Oil Fired – Water Cooled

Helaine said the shake reminded her of an explosion while we were in Buffalo.

An untrained worker was moving a propane tank with a forklift. The tank fell and the valve sheared off. The propane, being heavier than air, spread out along the ground.

From Wikipedia:

The North Division Street explosion was a powerful explosion on December 27, 1983 in a warehouse at the intersection of North Division and Grosvenor Streets in Buffalo, New York. The building contained an illegal 500-gallon propane tank whose valve was broken off while it was being moved and the building was evacuated. The propane started to leak and eventually reached an open flame. The tank exploded, killing all five firefighters assigned to Ladder 5 and two civilians; and damaging a dozen city blocks and causing millions of dollars of damage in fire equipment.

When it happened Helaine thought a car had run into our house! Within thirty seconds of her calling me at the TV station every phone in the place was ringing.

Right now I’m listening to emergency responders on an Internet delivered scanner channel. There’s lots of activity which seems well coordinated. There’s talk of victims and casuaties. It’s horrific.

I wanted to make sure Ann Nyberg knew about this. By the time I called her she was already at the station helping with our coverage. Stories unfold much more quickly now than in ’83. I’ve posted on Twitter and Facebook and the replies have been coming at a steady pace.

This is a tragedy.

Betty White Should Host SNL

It’s possibly the finest comedic idea of this century: Have Betty White host SNL!

I usually don’t join up with public causes on Facebook. No need to denigrate them. You cause crazy people know who you are. However I will make an exception this morning because it’s possibly the finest comedic idea of this century: Have Betty White host SNL!

From Entertainment Weekly:

Betty White fans are speaking, and they’re saying one of the most genius things ever: Bring Rose Nylund on as host of Saturday Night Live! No, but really, fans have rallied in a recently created Facebook fan page titled: “Betty White to host SNL (please?)!” As of noon ET today, the page had nearly 35,000 fans, rocketing from around 8,500 yesterday morning.

I’m more prone to think of her as Sue Ann Nivens, but the thought’s the same.

I joined her Facebook group a moment ago as number 50,997. It’s picking up steam.

Betty was on TV a week or so ago picking up a lifetime achievement award from the Screen Actors Guild. Here’s the clip. Don’t you think she’d be the best SNL host ever!

I’m Getting Set To Change My Blog

Each of these steps is tiny, but none of them is particularly well documented. If anything’s been left out I won’t know until it’s failed!

blog backend screencap.jpgWithout getting too terribly geeky my blog runs on Movabletype. That’s a software package which puts my typed words into the visual format you see. Moveabletype has served me well, but the trend in blogs (and other similar sites) is toward WordPress.

Simply put WP is supported by a huge community of developers and MT is not. That means WordPress can do lots of tricks this blog can’t do right now. In a Twitter, Facebook, search engine optimized age some of the tricks are pretty important.

There is a feature in WordPress to actually import a Movabletype blog like this one…. hold on… I’m laughing hysterically. You really don’t think it’s that easy, do you? I mean there is that feature. It almost works!

Others have blazed this path before me and dropped breadcrumbs along the way. I’ve been in arcane files located on a distant server changing “\n” to “\n \n.” I’ve created files to remind my server which version of software it needs to run.

Each of these steps is tiny, but none of them is particularly well documented. If anything’s been left out I won’t know until it’s failed!

The blog’s server will move too. Right now it’s hosted by a company in Chicago. It will probably reside on the Pennsylvania servers of a German company when I’m through. That should be invisible to you.

With all this the look of the blog will change. Though it has to change a little it’ll probably change a lot. There may be fewer full stories on the home page but more summaries and links. Maybe a better way to show photos? I’m mulling the decisions.

It needs to look nice while not pissing you (my readers) off.

I’m thinking of designing the theme myself from scratch. The more I look the more that seems doable. Most folks choose to use a pre-designed theme.

More than I can chew? Possibly.

I’m fixated on typography. Some blogs look so pretty because of the way they use type–how it’s spaced and formatted for headlines, quotes and lists. I’ve been searching for advice on this particular nuance but have come up short so far.

I’m open to suggestions. It’s like a fresh sheet of paper has been laid before me. It’s geekily exciting.

The process should take a few days… by which I mean a few weeks… so probably by late March… 2011.

Hopefully Tomorrow’s The Day My Dad Regains His Sight

Cataract surgery is so successful I’ve never heard of the operation failing–until my dad. He was left with absolutely no vision in his left eye.

harold-showgirls-large1.jpgI am writing this in the hope my father will read it… easily. He goes for eye surgery in the morning. This is the end of a very long, mainly awful journey.

While living in Connecticut my father was diagnosed with cataracts. Cataract surgery is so often successful I’ve never heard of the operation failing until my dad. He was left with absolutely no vision in his left eye.

I’m not going to get into the attempts to repair the damage. Least it to say they were as difficult as they were unsuccessful.

My dad was left with one working eye. It too had cataracts.

My father’s vision was bad and getting worse and, without a left eye, he had no depth perception or peripheral vision to the left. You can stand next to my dad and unless he hears you he won’t know you’re there.

“You know, you don’t get a discount,” my father said on the phone tonight. He was kidding around about eyeglasses. He only needs one lens. He’s charged for two.

“How about a monocle?” I replied.

With just one working eye he decided to pass on the surgery. Too much risk. Who could blame him?

Over the last few months his one working eye has continued downhill at an accelerating pace.

If you read his Facebook postings or get email from him you can see the misspellings that come with barely being able to make out the screen. He can no longer identify who he’s seeing on TV. He long ago lost the ability to see much less read road signs.

He doesn’t drive and probably shouldn’t even walk in unfamiliar surroundings by himself.

My mom and dad visited their newborn great grandson in Milwaukee recently. My sister watched and was concerned. In essence my dad had become functionally blind. Left alone in an unfamiliar place, like a store, he was helpless.

The cataract surgery he’s put off for the last decade or so has gone from option to necessity. There’s little left to lose. He called the doctor and set up an appointment.

Early tomorrow morning my dad goes for his surgery. The doctor is fully aware of his situation and full of reassurance, but it’s got to be a really scary night for my dad. He’s got everything to lose!

If everything goes as planned he’ll be home by afternoon and seeing within a day or two. He’ll need eyeglasses… err…. an eyeglass but his sight should be back to where it was–probably better– than when this whole thing started a decade ago.

The left eye is lost forever. He’s learned to live with that. It’s the right one that will go under the knife.

At age 84 my dad shakes and quivers. He has trouble hearing. His mind is fully sound.

He deserves to see again.

Please keep him in your thoughts.

Facebook’s Cancer

Even though the original notification said it was coming from a friend, it was coming from “Feed.” Even though it said something had been posted to my wall nothing had been!

notification.jpgFacebook has been a fun experience. Unfortunately my time on the site is getting less-and-less enjoyable as Facebook’s apps bend the truth or even lie to try and sucker me in! It is a cancer eating at the Facebook experience.

Here’s an example.

This afternoon I got notified a friend had posted something on my wall (the links will take you to screengrabs so you can see what I saw).

If you’re not on Facebook this message means someone left something for you in a public space where everyone can see and comment.

Actually, there was no activity from this person on my wall! The message was a lie.

Hmmmm. I clicked on the highlighted part of the notification. Instead of taking my to my wall as an actual message would it took me to a permission form.

Read carefully. The form tells you nothing and asks for everything! Say yes and you’re giving it access to all your friends.

The application is called “Feed.” That’s a generic term. Is it meant to confuse? Probably.

Even though the original notification said it was coming from a friend, it was coming from “Feed.” Even though it said something had been posted to my wall nothing had!

Finally I clicked a very tiny “x” on the notification next to my friend’s name. This is how you tell “Feed” to bug off. It’s something you can only do if you already know. The “x” isn’t there unless you mouse over its location. It’s as well hidden as can be!

Finally you’re takena form to remove you from “Feed.”

Unfortunately there are dozens… or hundreds of these Feed-like applications. I have done this many times… many, many times.

Not all of Facebook is bad, but this is a real concern and a real pain-in-the-ass.

Originally I limited my friends to… uh… friends. That approach was wrong. Hundreds of viewers were turned down before my approach changed. Now if you ask, you’re my friend!

That explains how I acquired 1,335 friends. With that many there’s a lot to read.

It is difficult to believe Facebook doesn’t know this subterfuge is going on. It’s time to stop it or some day Facebook will find itself marginalized and reduced as MySpace is. That will happen long after it loses me.

My State Of The Blog Address

Over the years my traffic has gone up and down. It was highest just before I was struck by a hacker and lost my Google mojo.

Earlier today I got an email from someone who just discovered this blog. He couldn’t sleep and aimlessly went from page-to-page. He joins the 73,807 visitors in 2009 who came here 165,558 times and viewed 297,223 pages! My page counter currently reads 2,120,588 pages served since I began.

Over the years traffic has gone up and down. It was highest just before I was struck by a hacker and lost my Google mojo. Google has reinstated me to their index, but the traffic has never quite recovered though it’s getting close, again.

All of these statistics are possible because of Google. There’s a little piece of code on every page which connects to Google Analytics. GA quantifies everything that’s going on.

There was a time I was making a few bucks a day&#185 from the blog. Now it’s a few pennies. That’s Google related too-Google AdSense.

Posting my blog entries to Twitter and Facebook has made a difference. I know most readers don’t read every entry I write, but from time-to-time there’s something that catches social networking eyes and traffic spikes.

The blog is read around-the-world though over 2/3 come from the United States. Foreign viewers tend to come for something specific, stop by and never return. Connecticut provides the most readers. As far as I remember I have never mentioned this blog on-the-air.

I was REALLY sick… doctor to your hotel room sick… and didn’t post October 22, 2006. That’s probably the last day I missed. An unwritten rule demands a post every day. Often there’s more than one.

Each entry is written and rewritten. Seriously, everything is rewritten. Mistakes still get in. Helaine is my best editor, though she continues to refuse my offer to let her make the corrections on her own.

Writing this blog is the most disciplined part of my life. Until I began I had no idea how much one could enjoy writing.

&#185 – Before you poo poo a few bucks a day, over the year it added up to hundreds of dollars, which paid for the web hosting with a little left over for coffee.

It’s The Best Toy Ever

The iPhone is transformational technology. It will change your life.

apple-iphone-3g.jpg“It’s the best toy ever,” was what my secretive friend in the San Fernando Valley said right after he got his iPhone. He kept saying it and saying it and saying it until I too broke down. You know what? He was right.

I complained originally about the keyboard and inconsistencies regarding when or which apps allow you to turn the screen to the landscape position. Still true. Horrendous battery life. Also true. I have chargers or cables at home, work and in the car.

The iPhone is transformational technology. It will change your life.

More than likely what I’m saying also applies to the new phones running the Android operating system, like the Droid and the soon to be unveiled (but already widely seen) phone from Google itself!

If you just count hours I used the iPhone more when I first got it . Now I go for value and utility. I answer email and check Facebook and Twitter. I don’t update my blog with it… well I did once and it wasn’t fun!

I have added apps. I’ve added enough that every once in a while I clean things out and reclaim a little space.

I have been blown away by some of these little programs like the amazing ReelDirector video editor. That was $4.99 well spent! Everyone is astounded I can shoot and edit video in the phone and the quality is very good.

Tonight my friend Bob showed me Glympse, which will allow a friend to track you for a set period of time. If I was driving to your house I’d send a private url which would allow you to track me and know when I’d be there.

Sometimes I use the iPhone instead of my car radio to listen to shows on NPR. I flew cross country using it to watch movies. I keep France24, a 24-hour English language all-news TV network from France, as my live TV demo–though I seldom actually watch it otherwise.

Yes, it’s a phone. It’s also a computer which leverages special hardware, like a GPS receiver, compass, accelerometer and touch screen. That makes it a computer that knows exactly where it is and what’s nearby.

Every time a new app arrives the phone does a little more. That’s not going away any time soon.

Apple is a little controlling. I wish I could see a little more of the inner digital workings.

I’m sure my California friend is reading this and taking some satisfaction that he ‘made the sale.’

These Snow Forecasts Never Get Easier

With all this heavyweight computing power and myriad observations this was the best we could do-vague and inconsistent guidance!

nws watches map.jpgThe weekend snow seems to be coming into sharper focus. I say “seems” because I won’t know for sure until the whole thing is gone. It’s been a wild, incredibly inconsistent ride which isn’t over yet.

Last night before going on-the-air I looked closely at the 00Z&#185 GFS and NAM models. The NAM called for a blizzard. The GFS had a windy day with light snow.

Before bed I took another look.

The 06Z runs were in. The NAM had gone from Armageddon to nothing! It was now showing the storm missing us! I sent a text message to Gil Simmons who was already preparing his forecast at work:

Geoff: Nam to 60h. Sorry snowman.

Gil: WTF. Gfs still had some measurable.

Gil: Nothing like flushing hrs of work

Gil: What a joke

He was right–What a joke. With all this heavyweight computing power and myriad observations this was the best we could do-vague and inconsistent guidance!

I went to bed.

I woke up this morning and checked my phone. Craig Allen, New York’s best known broadcast meteorologist, was on Facebook. He was complaining about the Weather Service’s freshly issued “Blizzard Watch” for Long Island. It was much too early considering the inconsistency of the forecast and the immense impact on the weekend before Christmas.

By experience on-air forecasters understand it’s easier to cancel an event than un-cancel it! There’s no harm in waiting a little while longer. On the other hand there’s plenty of downside committing to a watch too early.

Before starting this entry I took a look at the 12Z GFS and NAM. Major snow is back in the NAM. The GFS has become less of an outlier and is now closer to (but still less than) the NAM solution. These models and a few more will form the basis for my forecast today.

I will spend the next few hours mulling over each detail. How much wind? When will the snow start? Will there be a burst period? What about the critical cloud temperatures which will define the snow’s fluff factor.

In the end I’ll hope to be close. There’s no bullseye in snow forecasts. You’re never exactly right. You can only hope people are well prepared and critics cut you a little slack.

&#185 – To achieve global consistency all weather data is produced in “Z” time aka UTC or GMT. This time of year it’s five hours ahead of EST. So 00Z means 7:00 PM EST. That’s the initialization time. It takes a few hours for the results to trickle out.

The Forecast From Hell

I suppose some people might make a definitive forecast tonight, but no one knows for sure. This is far from settled.

snowy-wood-pile.jpgThe past few days have been bitterly cold. Very unusual this early. It’s been an easy forecast to make. This Sunday there might be snow. It’s the forecast from hell!

All the computer models are pointing in different directions. The implication is there will be a big snowstorm. I just can’t tell you where.

Up in Buffalo, safely removed from this particular tumult, Don Paul threw out a forecast suggestion for us in the Northeast: “Accumulations may range from 3″ to 3′.”

He suggested we mumble that line and move on.

The models are seeded with real world data to get them initialized, but my usual favorite (GFS) has initialized with a poor understanding of a strong low in the Gulf of Mexico. Other models are forecasting snowfall in the multi-foot range. Are they any better initialized?

Our data is limited and often flawed. There are many places for which no data is received. I don’t quite understand how these models attempt to compensate for all the things we don’t measure. It has to weaken the model output.

As a meteorologist the uncertainty bothers me no end.

We’ve had a little discussion going on over at Facebook. Some of the talk is technical. This is generally a time when meteorologists talk it out. The scenarios are so complex it’s possible to miss something so talking is valuable.

In the end all our individual forecasts will vary a little. Most of the time most of us will be mostly right… and we’ll relax knowing we’ve dodged the bullet for now. There is no upside to being wrong.

After twenty five plus years these winter forecasts have gotten no easier to make. I’m sweating it out with you.

Facebook’s Equivalent of “Reply All” – Stop It, Please

Facebook and its advertisers are betting on that. This is Amway style recruitment.

I like being on Facebook. Granted, not all of my friends are people I actually know (the new benchmark is people who would come to my funeral), but it’s nice to see what interests people who are interested in me.

I like reading what my friends write. Some of you are very witty. Some folks I know well show different personalities in the printed word than they do in the spoken word. That was a big surprise.

Maybe you like what I write? That’s why I promote my blog postings on my Facebook wall.

facebook-walmart.jpgWhat I don’t like are the “reply all” type messages I get when your gerbil has kittens in the aquarium. or you enter some sweepstakes.

I wonder if people realize EVERYONE on their friend list is getting this? You know the box you check before you join or enter a contest? It’s asking for access to your list of friends.

Originally I foolishly thought these were individually sent announcements. I didn’t want to seem antisocial to my Facebook pals. Facebook and its advertisers are betting on that. This is Amway style recruitment.

Nowadays I hit “Hide” all the time, but it’s a whack-a-mole game.

$100 Walmart Card Giveaway has been hidden from your News Feed. In the future, you won’t see posts from $100 Walmart Card Giveaway,

facebook-target.jpgFine, but there are other announcements for giveaways which are functionally the same, but different enough to get by. And get by they do!

No more than five minutes after I blocked Walmart, in comes one for Target!

There’s a method to this madness. These ads, and though Facebook would like me to believe they’re coming from you they are ads, are what pays the freight. There are more of them all the time!

On TV we try and separate content from advertising. On Facebook the line is blurry and getting blurrier.

I read an article a few days ago about the downfall of MySpace. Advertising clutter was mentioned as a main culprit.

Facebook, are you listening? I’m nearing the point where I’ll just have to hide me.