At moment Hurricane Sandy is doing what’s expected. The storm is tearing through the Bahamas. It has weakened.
It doesn’t look like it did last night when an eye and some banding were visible. Visiting Cuba will do that to you!
The Hurricane Center has joined the chorus explaining Sandy won’t be like other hurricanes at landfall.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF SANDY…IT IS LIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE FELT OVER PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
That includes us here in Connecticut.
NHC has another problem. Sandy will sure transition or be transitioning from a warm to cold core storm. That will broaden its wind field. Unlike a ‘pure’ hurricane, Sandy’s top winds won’t be right at the eyewall.
NOTE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES ARE NOT DESIGNED TO HANDLE THE TYPE OF STRUCTURAL CHANGES ANTICIPATED WITH SANDY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT…THESE PROBABILITIES WILL UNDERESTIMATE THE ACTUAL RISK OF STRONG WINDS AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
I’ll try and write a little about the 00z GFS before bed tonight. I’m hoping for more agreement with the ECMWF, meaning a more (hopefully) reliable forecast and farther away from us!