Tropical Storm Grace Is Totally Unimportant And Proves A Point

The Hurricane Center has christened Tropical Storm Grace. It’s in a very unusual place, off the coast of Portugal. The official forecast has Grace gone sometime later today or tomorrow.

THE CYCLONE IS HEADED FOR EVEN COLDER WATER AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO WEAKEN VERY SOON. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SMALL CYCLONE WILL BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 36 HOURS…IF NOT SOONER.

This storm is not a threat to land. It’s nearly a ‘who cares’ situation.

Before satellites this storm wouldn’t have been named. It might not have even been found!

When you read about increases in hurricane or tropical weather system activity keep that in mind. Not every statistic is meaningful. Historical data points are sparse.

5 Responses to “Tropical Storm Grace Is Totally Unimportant And Proves A Point”

  1. Bob M. says:

    I consider this “padding the numbers” to either 1. have an early season forecast verify or 2. push an agenda (for more funding?) for climate change. There have been more than one ot two really questionable named storms.

  2. Geoff Fox says:

    Bob – Many people would be surprised that so many of the exact numbers given by NHC are really rough estimates often based on conflicting data sets. Obviously Hurricane Andrew was underestimated, but in most cases… the vast majority of cases, I find they overestimate strength.

    That being said, it’s a really tough job with lots of downside for a bad forecast. I’m not claiming I’d do better.

  3. Geoff Fox says:

    Though I usually don’t quote AccuWeather in this case I agree totally with their Joe Bastardi:

    “This would have never never never never been named until the recent agenda driven forecasting, as outlined in a Miami Herald expose over a year ago, started. I can not believe the director of the hurricane center is allowing this. Again.. closed rotary circulation over water warmer than 25C gales in one quad, name it and leave the name on. This is not in water over 25c. They have said themselves that sat pics and wind profile is not reliable as reasons for not naming storms before. There is no excuse for this out of the National Hurricane center… naming a storm at 41 north, 20 WEST over 21c water… 4 c under the accepted criteria, and in light of the nonsense they have pulled with storms that have done damage to US coastlines without names, the most recent the storm that hit Jersey on Sept 11.”

    Amen.

  4. Charlie says:

    Geoff, Wasn’t it just a couple of years ago that they started giving tropical storms names and not just hurricanes?

  5. Geoff Fox says:

    Nope — they were always named.

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