My Deck’s White

Good morning. This is an unusual time for me to blog, but I was up and on-the-air with Al Gardner and Lionel on IQ106.9 in Philly. Using Skype audio and a high quality microphone it sounded like I was in the studio, not in my kitchen… and in pajamas.

As the title says, my deck is white! I can still see blades of grass poking through the snow on the lawn. They’ll be gone soon, not to return for a while.

I have a GoPro Hero camera pointing outside so I can have a time lapse of the storm. That comes tomorrow or Sunday. I will post it.

The forecast remains intact from yesterday. Everything you’ve heard from me (and probably from others) still looks to be in the ballpark.

Now that I’m looking shorter term I’ve switched to the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model. The HRRR has a 1km resolution and time increments as short as 15 minutes.

I love this model. Made in the USA!

Because it is crunching at such a fine level it only goes out 15 hours. It’s more nowcasting than forecasting.

What’s available as I type only goes out to 8:00 PM EST, but shows over 18″ accumulating over portions of the Naugatuck Valley and along I-395 in Eastern Connecticut.

At that point we’re far from finished!

Before I go on, a little about accumulations. With the numbers I’m expecting there will be plenty of settling. That means 18″ could fall, but the pile might be only 13 or 14″.

Don’t fixate on exact accumulation numbers. There will be more than we can handle. The state will slide to a halt, as will most of the Northeast.

The HRRR is also showing a little mixed precipitation right along I-95 on-and-off from 1:00 PM to around 4:00 PM. I’ve been seeing signs of this for a few days. Snow will still accumulate on the immediate shoreline, but sleet or rain always brings down the pile a little.

Tonight this storm will also have very strong wind. We usually don’t seeing blowing and drifting in Connecticut. We will this time.

Blizzard conditions are likely. Whiteout conditions are likely. Trees and power lines will fall. Shelter in place this afternoon and night.

I used to say I get paid by the viewer, but I still care about you. Conditions will deteriorate quickly.

The strongest winds will be along the shore and higher elevations. If you live near a road with the word “Hill,” “Ridge,” “Mountain” or “View” be prepared!

Power outages and road closures from trees down will be scattered across the state tonight.

Wave action in Long Island Sound will be very strong. The good news is, the peak surge from this storm is not in sync with high tide.

Some flooding on the coast is possible, but we’re not talking a Sandy scenario. Things could be much worse on the Massachusetts coast and Eastern Long Island. I am not an expert on Long Island’s weather, but it would seem Gardiners Bay and Little and Great Peconic Bay are poised for flooding.

We’ll stay snowy into Saturday. Final accumulations will be mind boggling!

Not only will we get a lot of snow, but we will get it statewide. Sometimes there are huge ratios between our highest and lowest snowfall totals. Not this time.

I’ll be back and update later this afternoon.

16 Responses to “My Deck’s White”

  1. Eva says:

    Mr. Fox, YOU ROCK SO HARD!!! Thank you so much for providing us geeks with a great weather report!!! Thank goodness for the internet!

  2. Diane K. says:

    Thank you so much Geoff. I’m not glad we’re having this blizzard, but I am glad that we have you to give us a dependable forecast. Awful to hear that we’ll be getting a mix here on the shoreline because that will make for backbreaking heavy snow cleanup. I’m looking forward to more of your blogging today and especially seeing your photographs. Snowmageddon has arrived!

  3. Denise says:

    Thank you so much for the forecast. Can’t wait to see the video.

  4. Robert Daly says:

    We’re tuned into you today.

  5. alexey says:

    I’m thinking of doing a first shovel later this afternoon, after the initial round, but before the wind howls. Tomorrow, we’ll tackle the rest with the blower and, of course, shovels in those hard to get at spots.

  6. David says:

    Thank you so much Geoff!!! Your’re the best!!!!

  7. Ruth says:

    And we care about you and are grateful for this access to your forecasts. Thanks for the early morning update.

  8. Suze says:

    Thanks for keeping us posted! Loved the comment about the street names!

  9. Anne says:

    Geoff, hubby has been after me all day to ask — what kind of snow is it going to be? heavy or light and fluffy? THANKS for keeping us updated — our daughter even follows you now on FB.

  10. meredith says:

    So glad to see you still forecasting here.

    I’m in England right now, and they could use you! They could use any meteorologist, really … trying to find a detailed weather forecast here is an utterly futile enterprise. They don’t even have radar!!! I know one should never go out in England without one’s umbrella, even if it’s bright and sunny at the moment … but a little more information would be nice to have. We really are spoiled in the U.S. (Even if stupid networks do insist upon naming the winter storms.)

  11. Bonnie says:

    Thanks so much for your forcast. I look forward to seeing your pictures later.

  12. Cindy from Brooklyn, CT says:

    Geoff, as many others have stated, your posts are greatly appreciated. Not just in the forecasting but in the explanations that you give for the “whys”. “Why do they tell us we got xx” when I only measured x” in my backyard?” Well, now if someone says that to me, I’ll have an answer for them. I’ve gotten much better detailed information about this storm from you than any of the news websites. You’re still my “go to” weather man. Thank you!

  13. Joe Fec says:

    Hey Geoff, I set up my go pro to take 5 meg pics once a minute. I plan on sequencing the pics into a movie using Nero Vision 10. Think it will work? I’m using a 16 gig card and I figure I am good for the storms duration oruntil I get bored and want to try it out. (which ever comes first))

  14. Geoff,
    I need to take issue with your comment that we don’t usually see drifting in CT. Drifting is quite common in the mid-upper Naugatuck Valley—-at least in the towns that I have lived in. IN my case, the snow blows down the street out of the north west and drifts in my front yard and against the garage door, then blows up the alley way and drifts against my back door, making taking a dog out for those little trips almost impossible. Did you ever try to squeeze a shovel through aa crack in the doorway and shovel a path from there???Loads of fun.
    Just think—this time you get to experience what Helene has often experienced alone—at least now she has someone to share her fears with!

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