Good morning. This is an unusual time for me to blog, but I was up and on-the-air with Al Gardner and Lionel on IQ106.9 in Philly. Using Skype audio and a high quality microphone it sounded like I was in the studio, not in my kitchen… and in pajamas.
As the title says, my deck is white! I can still see blades of grass poking through the snow on the lawn. They’ll be gone soon, not to return for a while.
I have a GoPro Hero camera pointing outside so I can have a time lapse of the storm. That comes tomorrow or Sunday. I will post it.
The forecast remains intact from yesterday. Everything you’ve heard from me (and probably from others) still looks to be in the ballpark.
Now that I’m looking shorter term I’ve switched to the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model. The HRRR has a 1km resolution and time increments as short as 15 minutes.
I love this model. Made in the USA!
Because it is crunching at such a fine level it only goes out 15 hours. It’s more nowcasting than forecasting.
What’s available as I type only goes out to 8:00 PM EST, but shows over 18″ accumulating over portions of the Naugatuck Valley and along I-395 in Eastern Connecticut.
At that point we’re far from finished!
Before I go on, a little about accumulations. With the numbers I’m expecting there will be plenty of settling. That means 18″ could fall, but the pile might be only 13 or 14″.
Don’t fixate on exact accumulation numbers. There will be more than we can handle. The state will slide to a halt, as will most of the Northeast.
The HRRR is also showing a little mixed precipitation right along I-95 on-and-off from 1:00 PM to around 4:00 PM. I’ve been seeing signs of this for a few days. Snow will still accumulate on the immediate shoreline, but sleet or rain always brings down the pile a little.
Tonight this storm will also have very strong wind. We usually don’t seeing blowing and drifting in Connecticut. We will this time.
Blizzard conditions are likely. Whiteout conditions are likely. Trees and power lines will fall. Shelter in place this afternoon and night.
I used to say I get paid by the viewer, but I still care about you. Conditions will deteriorate quickly.
The strongest winds will be along the shore and higher elevations. If you live near a road with the word “Hill,” “Ridge,” “Mountain” or “View” be prepared!
Power outages and road closures from trees down will be scattered across the state tonight.
Wave action in Long Island Sound will be very strong. The good news is, the peak surge from this storm is not in sync with high tide.
Some flooding on the coast is possible, but we’re not talking a Sandy scenario. Things could be much worse on the Massachusetts coast and Eastern Long Island. I am not an expert on Long Island’s weather, but it would seem Gardiners Bay and Little and Great Peconic Bay are poised for flooding.
We’ll stay snowy into Saturday. Final accumulations will be mind boggling!
Not only will we get a lot of snow, but we will get it statewide. Sometimes there are huge ratios between our highest and lowest snowfall totals. Not this time.
I’ll be back and update later this afternoon.