I finally decided 6-12″ for Shoreline and Western Connecticut and 5-10″ for the rest of the state. The snow has started, and I’m watching the traffic cameras in Lower Fairfield County as if this were some sort of riveting drama – which it is to me.
Downstream, there has been some heavy snow. But, I am also looking at the western, trailing, edge of the system. It is moving too fast. At this rate it won’t last all night.
I hate snow on so many levels.
As the new 0z eta starts dribbling in, it is backing off precipitation. Now, only around 25″ liquid equivalent. Two days ago it was over an inch. That’s a huge drop off.
On the other hand, it doesn’t look like the initial conditions that were fed into the model were totally accurate. Maybe the model is poisoned from the outset!
I hate snow even more.
With 35 minutes to go until the news on WCTX, I am going to stick with the earlier forecast, in spite of the new guidance. But, I will express my concern that I’ve over predicted.
What a mess. And, what a mess I am.
I saw the 10pm and then the 11pm. I liked the look of the 11pm much better. Less snow to shovel in the morning.
I wouldn’t want to be in your shoes, trying to predict what mother nature will do. But you always do a great job.
Now try to get some sleep tonight! 😉
You need to go a little easy on yourself, Geoff. You are trying to predict the unpredictable. You put a great deal of research and pride in what you do, as well you should. And for every defeat you also have 20 victories. If I remember correctly (and who knows, I might not) you were the only person to correctly predict the Blizzard of ’77.
Besides, you made an overprediction. So there was LESS snow to shovel, not more. I can live with that, and so should everyone else.
I have watched you for years, and will continue to do so. At least you don’t give the storm some cute name (Winter Storm Connor, indeed!) Hang in there. THINK SPRING!