Looking to the Future

Much of my work time is spent looking into the future. I’m pretty good at it. Of course the farther into the future I predict, the less accuracy I have. On top of that, the more events that have to happen in a distinct order, at a distinct time, the less accuracy I have.

It is easy to look at the computer generated maps I get, with weather features neatly placed in exact spots, and assume that’s exactly where they’ll be. It doesn’t always work that way – though sometimes it does.

I’m giving you all these “CYA” statements before I tell you about some projections I saw earlier today. If what I saw comes true, this will be a terrible week here in Connecticut… actually, that’s an understatement. What I saw if it comes out exactly as I saw it would be the precursor for some pretty significant flooding.

The setup of two tropical systems in rapid succession is just what happened prior to the Connecticut floods of 1955. Since then flood control dams have been built in Litchfield County. It is doubtful the same thing would happen in the same place today. Still, there is just so much rain that can be dealt with before some significant flooding takes place.

Right now it’s Tuesday with the first tropical system scheduled to be here Friday. I’m not sure it will get us. I’m less certain of Sunday’s run in with the second storm. But the maps certainly have my attention right now and I will be on the edge of my seat as each new run of the models come in.

I seldom want to be wrong. I’ll make an exception here.

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