Oh Canada (Computer Model)

Over the course of the hurricane season I’ll see lots of different computer projections. Hurricanes are notoriously difficult to forecast – especially before they form.

With that in mind, here’s the scenario presented by the Canadian CMC computer model. It builds a tropical system near the Dominican Republic, then streams it north, hitting Connecticut late Monday.

The color shading shows sea surface temperatures, which cool rapidly north of Cape Hatteras. Under this scenario, the storm would be extratropical by the time it got to New England. For all intents and purposes, that’s a minor factor.

Can it happen? Sure. Will it happen? Probably not.

Unfortunately, no one (certainly not me) is happy with a ‘probably not’ level of confidence. This will bear watching. More than likely it will be one of the dozens of false alarms I see every season.

It’s still scary to see.

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