I Still Look At The Weather

The more interesting weather is in the Northeast. I guess all the TV people are talking about the potential for a storm Wednesday? I would be.

The 00Z GFS starts precipitation early Wednesday and continues through the day, heavy at times.

gfsNE_prec_prec_093

Learning to forecast was fun. I still find it enjoyable, looking at weather maps and charts. California weather is currently very stable. Days in the 70s, nights 50s. Passing clouds.

Nowadays I use weather.cod.edu for most of my raw and mapped data. It is a nerd-o-riffic weather site run by the College of DuPage in Illinois.

Our next chance for rain comes a week from today. Everyone, including me, will tell you we need it. Southern California must maintain a delicate balance. Even in a drought, nearly all rainstorms here are potentially flooding rainstorms! It doesn’t take much.

The more interesting weather is in the Northeast. I guess all the TV people are talking about the potential for a storm Wednesday? I would be.

The 00Z GFS starts precipitation early Wednesday and continues through the day, heavy at times. It’s the heaviest travel day of the year and this system will impact DCA, PHL, NYC, BOS and everyone inbetween.

Judging by the 850mb temperatures, I’d favor mostly snow in Connecticut–though mixed precip isn’t out of the question. Windy. Stormy. Crappy.

The spaghetti plots through early Thursday are reasonably tight, signifying the model is impressed with its results.

Hey, it’s Sunday. Maybe your decisions can wait. Please, wait as long as possible.

If your options are limited, it might be time to think of alternatives.

No weather forecast is infallible. The ones for SoCal are easier.

Now It’s Tropical Storm Arthur

After grazing the North Carolina coast Arthur will be picked up by a midlatitude front and ushered to sea. Friday’s New England rain will be enhanced (intensified) by Arthur’s moisture. That’s especially true in Eastern Connecticut and more so in Rhode Island and the Cape.

Atlantic TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR - Google Maps

Invest 91 became Tropical Depression 1, which is now Tropical Storm Arthur. I can’t not look!

Early season storms are usually wimps. Not always. Remember Andrew!

Intensity guidance, among the poorest prediction guesses we make, says Arthur will briefly become a hurricane on Friday. I expect no hurricane force winds onshore.

The spaghetti strands continue to be tightly clustered. A good sign, especially since the impact to Connecticut (where many of my friends still live) should be minimal, but still significant.

After grazing the North Carolina coast Arthur will be picked up by a midlatitude front and ushered to sea. Friday’s New England rain will be enhanced (intensified) by Arthur’s moisture. That’s especially true in Eastern Connecticut and more so in Rhode Island and the Cape.

By Saturday Arthur’s east of Cape Cod and steaming away. The weekend is saved in New England and elsewhere!

Remember: Though I do follow tropical systems and post when I can, you should depend on a meteorologist who works fulltime watching your weather. I am flattered people still value my opinion, but I shouldn’t be your ‘final answer.’ – Geoff

Where We Live

I walked in the door and sighed. Helaine asked what was wrong. I said we’d found the house. Three bedrooms, two and a half baths, on two floors with around 1,900 square feet of living space.

IMG_0771_5228

This week marks a year since our hectic first week in Irvine. This is a totally different world. Nothing’s the same, right down to the side of the street that borders the ocean!

As the wheels began to turn and moving became more-and-more certain, we made a few house hunting trips to Orange County. Our cousins are nearby. That was a huge draw. Stef is close, but not too close. No winter.

Helaine likes new. For us that’s the right call. There’s lots new here.

Irvine is a rapidly growing suburb in Southern Orange County. We are inland from Laguna Beach and Newport Beach. To our north and east are foothills, then the Santa Ana Mountains, mainly wilderness.

This is unlike our former New England home in nearly every way. We lived in a town that grew organically. Our property line was not a rectangle.

Here, everything is by design. Each house is different, but in the same sense identical twins have differences. Irvine is a medley of your favorites in the beige family.

Housing developments pack the homes in then leave lots of common space with parks, pools and trails. That’s part of the deal for being allowed to build here. We have a city block sized common area with pool, basketball and tennis courts and large dog friendly lawn. It’s a minute’s walk away. There are kid playgrounds within a few blocks in every direction.

We saw a model and bought a house to-be-built. I walked in the door and sighed. Helaine asked what was wrong. I said we’d found the house. We were looking for this layout. Three bedrooms, two and a half baths, on two floors with around 1,900 square feet of living space.

We knew most, not all of what we were getting. Houses are different when they’re alongside their neighbors. As it turns out we chose well and got lucky. We’re very happy the way things turned out.

Our goal was a great kitchen for Helaine and great office for me. She is amazing in the kitchen, especially baking, and deserves to have a suitable space. My office is more about what’s in it than what it is. It began life as a third bedroom. It’s currently messy, but otherwise perfect.

We are very surprised by our utility bills. Because we have neighbors north and south we get morning and afternoon sun, but are shaded during the day. Our electric bill averages in the low $50 range. There’s also $15 for gas and $30 for water. All seem constant year round.

We seldom use the air conditioner. Low humidity is a big deal. We sleep with windows open 350 nights a year–maybe more. I leave a laptop on the patio and sit out there every night.

This is a community with lots of immigrants, most from Asia. Not all speak English. I often say hello and am met with a pleasant, but perplexed, smile.

I have a Chinese family on one side and a California raised Korean family on the other. I know one family well, the other not at all.

The Chinese family is multi-generational, living together. Some housing developments sell models specifically designed for that.

At Halloween one neighborhood father explained his young daughter didn’t speak English. She’d only been here a week. Welcome to America. Let’s go door-to-door and beg for candy.

I love this neighborhood because of the vitality I see. Young families on the move. If the American dream has disappeared, word hasn’t gotten to the people living here.

We got very lucky.

Like Paul Blart, Mall Cop

NEsf.fronts.20140214.07

At 11:15 PM PST/2:15 AM EST

Observe and report. Like Paul Blart, Mall Cop, I’m observing and reporting.

First stop, radar. It’s active. Snow, identifiable by radar only recently, is the only precipitation being seen at the moment. It’s moving west-to-east.

Meteorologists call the radar’s targets, hydrometeors. Cool name.

We can detect rain, snow, hail, sleet, whatever. If a radar beam can bounce off it, it’s tracked.

Most times the radar is amazing. Not always. I’ve seen storms develop in an unusually bright patch of ground clutter. Surprise! Where did that come from? A once every few year event.

All my observing tonight is on the College of DuPage weather website. They carry nearly every product with well chosen color tables. Highly recommended.

The surface map shows the low pulling east, leaving New England. There’s more moisture following and colder temperatures. The snow isn’t quite finished.

Before ending this morning that additional snow will cover the slushy wet mess already on-the-ground. Up to a half foot more will fall in scattered sections of the Litchfield Hills all the way to the UCONN campus. Most areas a few inches less. Even less on the shoreline and near 395.

But still, look what it’s covering!

Oh–and windy and much colder.

The amount of forecast and observational data available is immense. New tools arrive all the time. For nerds like me, this is heaven. Forecasting in pajamas!

The Snow I Won’t Miss

New Year’s Night. 8:47 PM PST.

COD Meteorology    Numerical Model Data

There’s a storm on the way to New England. There are one or two major storms there during any snow season. This will be one.

I’ve been working the numbers. It’s fun to forecast. I like maps, graphs and numbers. I can do it sitting in my chair here in Orange County.

I don’t miss the anxiety of forecasting. I know my fellow meteorologists sweat these out too. No one wants to be wrong.

At this hour radar from the Northeast is showing snow over Connecticut. Bradley’s been reporting light snow for over an hour. Most of the state is still quiet. The center of the upcoming storm is over Arkansas!

Here’s the setup: The low moves from Arkansas to the Northeast. A Canadian high will block the low’s northerly progress, but also provide an ample supply of cold air.

New England’s geography takes over.

As the low moves over the relatively mild (compared to land) ocean it will explode! A low’s strength is measure by its central pressure. The pressure will drop like a rock!

The prediction shows a rapid fall from ~1016mb to ~985mb. That will enhance both precipitation and wind! More of each.

Don’t be fooled. This isn’t a linear storm. There will be a long period of light snow, then the main course.

Thursday will be cloudy with snow showers and flurries. A few inches will accumulate during the day. If you have to drive you probably will, though you shouldn’t. The wind will being picking up.

After dark, windblown snow becoming heavy at times. Strong northeasterly winds. You’ll want to be safely home before this bad boy gets going.

Some areas might see a foot. 5-8″ will probably be the average.

The snow ends Friday morning. It will be replaced by bitterly cold air with many spots dipping below zero Saturday morning.

You don’t want to know what it will be like here in SoCal tomorrow.

How To Get Connecticut Snowfall Totals

Doppler Versus Snow

This time of year there’s a steady barrage of incoming messages looking for Connecticut snowfall totals. Some folks are curious. Others want to make sure their plow contractor isn’t overcharging, or they’re plow contractors who’d like to charge more!

The info isn’t easily obtained, especially for smaller towns. If you’re looking for Connecticut snowfall totals, here’s where I go.

The most complete source is the Connecticut Department of Transportation Weather Roundup. These are collected every two hours at DOT yards across Connecticut. Because of the methodology used the cumulative snowfall total is always more than what’s actually settled on the ground.

The National Weather Service splits Connecticut between three Weather Service Forecast Offices. That makes things more difficult. You’ll have to look at all three Public Information Statements to put the info together.

Shoreline counties: National Weather Service Forecast Office, Upton, NY.

Hartford, Tolland and Windham Counties: National Weather Service Forecast Office, Taunton, MA.

Litchfield County: National Weather Service Forecast Office, Albany, NY.

Snowfall and other weather data is often critical in accidents and contract disputes. For those more exacting cases when just numbers on paper (or a screen) aren’t enough I provide forensic meteorological services for attorneys and insurance companies.

The Mill House: One Of My Favorite Photo Spots

How weird today. The ground is snow covered. It felt like spring. The sky was blue. The wind was light. Songbirds have arrived.

The Sun is as strong now as it is in early October.

This might be my last major snow opportunity of the season. I headed to a favorite site a short walk from my house.

This Currier and Ives scene is real. I’m not sure what it looks like from the mill house, but it can’t be as good as this.

I posed a similar photo on Facebook yesterday, but this shot, with my Canon, has a little more clarity. Click the photo to get a larger, more detailed view.

He’s Blowing Leaves… Again

I appreciate his dedication to task. But doesn’t he realize leaf blowing now is like peeing in the ocean?

Whrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr. The sound is low and throaty and loud. It is full of vibrato. It penetrates my walls. It is one of my neighbors blowing leaves again. This is the fourth weekend in a row!

It’s not that I don’t want to be a good neighbor. I do. I appreciate his dedication to task. But doesn’t he realize leaf blowing now is like peeing in the ocean?

At the moment leaves are drizzling. A few weeks from now they’ll be pouring off the trees. Think lemmings jumping of a cliff. The extra little bit he’d leave by not blowing today wouldn’t even be noticed!

Is this my sentence for the next month, listening to this leaf blower’s leaf blower? When’s sunset?

Have We Become Snow Wimps–And Why That’s OK

Are we really that scared of running out of milk, bread and eggs? Is this 1952? We have plows. We have salt/sand and ice busting chemistry. Many people have 4-wheel drive vehicles.

just-an-inch.jpgGrowing up in New York City in the 50s and 60s I seldom got to experience school cancellations or delays. If it snowed we went to school. The official pronouncement from the Board of Education was, “tough nuggies.”

I hear similar stories all the time. People muse over the fact that this is New England and it does snow. “When I was a kid…,” they’ll begin. No need to finish the sentence. We all know where it’s going.

Is today’s reaction to a tiny snowfall prima facie evidence that we’ve gone wimpy? No! No emphatically.

Schools weren’t canceled as quickly 30-40 years ago (and more recently as well) because we just didn’t know what was coming! Yes, there were weather forecasts, but they were awful compared to today’s (and today’s have room for improvement).

We just don’t have “Blizzard of ’78” scenarios anymore.

We still get blizzards, but we’re not surprised by them. 1978’s storm was by-and-large unexpected. Sure the exact snow forecast timing might still be off or we’ll blow the amount of snow, but it’s been a long time since snow snuck in totally unannounced or a forecast of flurries became a dumping.

School superintendents wake up with “actionable intelligence,” to steal a military expression. That leaves them with a quandary. What’s the potential downside for having school versus canceling–especially with the huge percentage of kids who bus in?

There is no upside having school on a snowy day and plenty of potential downside. That’s why they’ve developed hair triggers and why schools are shut at the drop of a hat. It’s also why “snow days” are already built into the calendar.

Pity the superintendent who keeps schools open and has a bus slide off the road, even without injuries!

Weather forecasts have more utility and they’re being used. That’s a good thing. On the other hand old habits die hard. That’s bad.

Because we have better forecasts (and much, much better mechanized technology) your chances of being stranded somewhere for more than a handful of hours because of snow have become very low. Still the mere mention of snow causes a panicked run on supermarkets!

Are we really that scared of running out of milk, bread and eggs? Is this 1952? We have plows. We have salt/sand and ice busting chemistry. Many people have 4-wheel drive vehicles.

The real wimps aren’t running schools. The wimps are at the grocery store!

The Foxes At The Big E

We saw animals and ate food… lots of food… lots of bad-for-you food and walked the grounds.

Big E MidwayWe came. We saw. We ate… and ate!

Today was “Big E” day for the Fox Family. Stef and Helaine dropped Roxie at the vet for her “Tribute to Bob Barker” day then headed home to wake me. By 9:30 AM we were on the road, heading north to West Springfield, MA.

I started the day with a scratchy throat. No change there. We’re back home now–exhausted.

We saw animals and ate food… lots of food… lots of bad-for-you food and walked the grounds. The Big E is New England’s state fair, so it’s pretty large.

I also took around 350 photos. I plan on putting some sort of slide show together, but for now I just wanted to check in and say I’m alive.

Sick On A Day Off–The Saddest Situation

A sick day… and I can’t even take a sick day! Oh the humanity.

This might be the saddest situation possible. I’ve taken tomorrow off and now I’m getting sick. My muscles are a little achy and I’ve had a headache for over 24 hours.

A sick day… and I can’t even take a sick day! Oh the humanity.

We are planning to head to the Big-E tomorrow. That’s the Eastern States Exposition in West Springfield, MA–as close as New England gets to a state fair.

A few moments ago I explained to Stef, via BlackBerry Messenger, whatever ails me can be cured by fried dough. For the time being I’m sticking to that assessment.

Danny Moves Your Fanny

It’s unlikely we’ll get hit directly by Danny, but how much impact will there be? The line between some and none is tough to find.

danny-thurs-afternoon-plot.gifBack in Buffalo fabled morning disk jockey (and all around good guy) Dan Nevereth had a jingle (and ad campaign) which said, “Danny moves your fanny in the morning.&#185” My question is whether that will be true Saturday morning as Tropical Storm or possibly Hurricane Danny bears down on New England?

I keep looking at the data on Danny hoping to find a morsel which will give me a little relief. Nothing. It’s unlikely we’ll get hit directly, but how much impact will there be? The line between some and none is tough to find.

Added to this a planned weekend trip out-of-town. I fly out and back in not much more than 24 hours! If conditions warrant my trip is canceled. That’s not even under discussion. My first obligation is here in Connecticut.

When do I make my decision? I always tell viewers to wait until the very last moment. I’ll follow my own advice. A decision to “eat the ticket” won’t be made until Saturday morning.

No matter what Danny doesn’t look like it’s going to be a powerhouse. That’s good. The romance of a hurricane is that only in the abstract. I’ve never met anyone who felt the same way after a few days without electricity.

&#185 – Video of this commercial is not on Youtube! It’s probably the only commercial in America not online. I’d love to see a copy if you have one.

Difficult Forecasts

I am being driven crazy by the current weather scenario. Not because of what it is, but because of how difficult impossible it is to forecast beyond 60 hours!

It is quiet tonight in the Fox house. Helaine and Stef are asleep. I am alone in my office, lit by a single lamp. It’s 64&#176 outside so the window’s open.

If you’re really still the sound of intermittent rain falling from leaves can be heard. It’s tough to say whether it’s actually raining or if this is residual moisture from earlier showers. It doesn’t matter. To be outside is to be enveloped by the moisture that saturates the atmosphere… and now too the ground.

This is an all weather area. Little that comes from the sky can’t be handled on the ground. In nearly 20 years I’ve never seen our nearby brook do much more than get angry and stray a few feet. It looks pretty when it’s wet.

I never know how to describe this area. We more rural that suburban, though we’re not rural. The homes are spread out here, more because of well water and septic systems than anything else. You need room to produce and process water!

This is probably the first house built on this land. A stone wall in my backyard marks some old property line. Walls were always built in the open, but it’s now hemmed in by mature trees. It’s been a long time since anyone tried to grow anything on this rock infused New England soil.

I am being driven crazy by the current weather scenario. Not because of what it is, but because of how difficult impossible it is to forecast beyond 60 hours! I know a lot of people think 8-days is too far ahead to forecast, but there is some utility–especially the long range temperatures. Now three days has me flummoxed.

The computer models are fine tuned on actual weather, so when something really unusual takes place they have trouble following what’s going on. Obviously, this pattern is exceptionally unusual.

The 12Z GFS (a computer model run at 8:00AM or 12Z) showed a cutoff low in the Northern Plains for next week which basically stood still for days at a time. Could it happen? Sure, but it would be the first I’ve ever seen in 25 years here! And, of course, everything else in the model is closely related to this large feature. If it’s wrong (and it most likely is) everything else is wrong.

“Discard it,” you say. “If it’s wrong just ditch it.”

The problem is going beyond a few days humans aren’t capable of producing a reliable forecast without this high level mathematical help. We may know it’s wrong, but we don’t know what is right and there are a variety of possible solutions.

If it was just a question of working harder to get the forecast right I would. In the meantime I grin and bear it trying not to mislead those who trust me.

Just Another Football Sunday

The daytime games didn’t hold much more than peripheral interest for us, though I enjoyed watching Oakland and New England play a full four quarters in heavy rain.

“I’m going to fold these jeans and leave them near the bed for tomorrow,” I told Helaine last night. “Right,” she said. “Will you even be up for the first game?”

OK–I never got out of my pajamas today. I didn’t take the camera out as I’d planned. In fact I barely made halftime before coming downstairs. I hate it when she knows more about me than I do.

We spent the day watching football on TV. The daytime games didn’t hold much more than peripheral interest for us, though I enjoyed watching Oakland and New England play a full four quarters in heavy rain.

With the Eagles way behind we’ve taken to rooting against teams hoping for entree to the NFC wild card. Lose Redskins. Lose Cowboys. Lose Atlanta. We got two of three.

“Go Giants,” Helaine said earlier today. Really? It’s come to that? How sad.

Bob Lacey Brings His Vacation To Connecticut

If he keeps the rest of his vacation as tightly packed as this first day, he’ll have no vacation.


My friend Bob came to Connecticut to spend a day. We weren’t going to squander it!

He left Charlotte, NC Saturday morning and was here by mid-afternoon. It didn’t take long to drop-the-top on my car so the two of us could head out. We hit the Glenwood Drive-In, a local dog house, before turning south to the shoreline.

Bob grew up here. He likes to go back to those places he remembers as a kid–especially the shore. We took I-91 south to I-95 then turned east&#185. We drove over the Connecticut River and exited on Route 156 in Old Lyme.

Old Lyme is an interesting place, because there are really two Old Lymes… at least to me. There is the beach area of Old Lyme with the Miami Beach Association’s plot of sand flanked by some loud beachside bars. There’s also the more quiet, more traditional Old Lyme. The homes aren’t as special as the care taken of them. In that way it reminds me of Greenwich or “The Flats” area in Beverly Hills. It’s quite beautiful in an understated way that can only be achieved when the construction in your town is mature.

We crossed back and continued up river to Essex. This is another picturesque New England community on the Connecticut River. Most people know it for its scenic railroad with steam engine rides up-the-river.

While Bob perused a gallery on Main Street, “Clicky” and I staked out the street, looking for photos to take. That’s where I ran into “W,” the dog. I held the camera very low to the ground and snapped away. It was too low for me to look through the viewfinder. I’m getting better at these low point-of-view shots, but still wasted most of what I took because the top of the dog’s head was out of my frame!

Down the street was a pretty town park which sloped to South Cove, on the river. Right in the middle a wedding party was posing for pictures. It was a spectacular day. I wonder how much angst the bride had hoping the forecast would come true?

Our evening ended with Helaine joining us for dinner at Lenny’s in Branford. Bob and I had the “Shore Dinner.”

As we drove home I saw I’d put over 100 miles on without going much of anywhere.

Bob left after breakfast on Sunday morning. He was on his way to Maine for a week with his grown son, Christopher. If he keeps the rest of his vacation as tightly packed as this first day, he’ll have no vacation.

&#185 – Though I-95 runs mainly east-west in Connecticut, it is marked north-south. To go east, follow the signs for north and vice versa.